摘要
将德尔菲法运用到点读式导游机在韶山景区的市场推广项目中,建立了项目可行性分析的德尔菲体系。体系中的市场调研、项目运营和风险评估、项目财务评估以及综合评估四个体系相互独立又相互融合。文章对市场调研和专家选择方面进行了优化,同时采用区间二分法来进行数据预测,获得一个可靠的科学预测区间。建立实验对照组,并建立灰色预测模型来对优化结果进行检验。文中所涉及数据均为实证调研的真实数据。
A project feasibility analyze system is built by appling the Delphi Method into the marketing project for the Click-Reading Guiding machine in Shashan scenic zone.All the data referenced in the paper are based on actual market research.The system could be divided into four major parts as Market Research,Project Operation and Risk Assessment,Project Financial Assessment and Comprehensive Assessment which are individually independent but connected to each other as a whole.Meanwhile the Market Research and Expert Selection sections are optimized. The Interval Space Dichotomy Statistic Method is adopted for the data prediction and a reliable scientific forecast interval is obtained which provides an effective reference tool for the project feasibility analytical prediction.
出处
《长春理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
2009年第4期692-694,共3页
Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70871082)
上海市重点学科建设项目(S30504)
