摘要
以扬州市1996￣2004年土地利用变更调查数据为基础,对其土地利用结构变化过程进行了描述,并选取相对变化率指标分析了变化的区域差异。运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法,构建1996￣2004年间扬州市土地利用类型转移的概率矩阵,预测扬州市2010和2020年的土地利用结构,并分析了其变化特征。预测结果表明,扬州市未来的土地利用主要存在着如下特征:耕地面积将持续减少,城镇建设用地规模仍将继续增大,未利用地面积减少较快。文章最后根据预测结果提出了扬州市土地利用结构优化调整的政策建议。
Based on the inquisition data of land use change between 1996 and 2004 of Yangzhou City, the paper describes the course of land use structure change and its regional differences with the index of relative change rate. It uses the theory and and method of Markov chain to construct the transition probability matrix of land structure. The land structure in 2010 and 2020 is forecasted and the characters of land structure transition analyzed. The result indicates that in the future the land use in Yangzhou City will take on characteristics as follows： the area of cultivated land will reduce continually. The scale of building land in city and town is still increasing. And the unused land is decreasing rapidly. Based on the result, the paper proposes some valuable propositions to optimize the land use structure in Yangzhou City.
出处
《广东土地科学》
2006年第6期11-15,共5页
Guangdong Land Science
关键词
土地利用结构
变化
预测
扬州市
Land use structure
change
forecast
Yangzhou City
