Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and...Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.展开更多
The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to m...The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.展开更多
Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulati...Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulation model, using system dy- namics methodology, to assess the sustainable performance of projects. Three major factors are used to examine project sus- tainable performance (PSP): the sustainability of economic development (E), the sustainability of social development (S), and the sustainability of environmental development (En). Sustainable development ability (SDA) was used as a prototype to evaluate the degree of sustainable performance. The simulation software ‘ithink’ was used to help with the application of the model to a real life case. This paper explains and demonstrates the procedures used to develop the model and finally offers an approach for assessing the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its sustainable performance.展开更多
System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates ...System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.展开更多
The mathematical and statistical modeling of the problem of poverty is a major challenge given Burundi’s economic development. Innovative economic optimization systems are widely needed to face the problem of the dyn...The mathematical and statistical modeling of the problem of poverty is a major challenge given Burundi’s economic development. Innovative economic optimization systems are widely needed to face the problem of the dynamic of the poverty in Burundi. The Burundian economy shows an inflation rate of -1.5% in 2018 for the Gross Domestic Product growth real rate of 2.8% in 2016. In this research, the aim is to find a model that contributes to solving the problem of poverty in Burundi. The results of this research fill the knowledge gap in the modeling and optimization of the Burundian economic system. The aim of this model is to solve an optimization problem combining the variables of production, consumption, budget, human resources and available raw materials. Scientific modeling and optimal solving of the poverty problem show the tools for measuring poverty rate and determining various countries’ poverty levels when considering advanced knowledge. In addition, investigating the aspects of poverty will properly orient development aid to developing countries and thus, achieve their objectives of growth and the fight against poverty. This paper provides a new and innovative framework for global scientific research regarding the multiple facets of this problem. An estimate of the poverty rate allows good progress with the theory and optimization methods in measuring the poverty rate and achieving sustainable development goals. By comparing the annual food production and the required annual consumption, there is an imbalance between different types of food. Proteins, minerals and vitamins produced in Burundi are sufficient when considering their consumption as required by the entire Burundian population. This positive contribution for the latter comes from the fact that some cows, goats, fishes, ···, slaughtered in Burundi come from neighboring countries. Real production remains in deficit. The lipids, acids, calcium, fibers and carbohydrates produced in Burundi are insufficient for consumption. This negative contribution proves a Burundian food deficit. It is a decision-making indicator for the design and updating of agricultural policy and implementation programs as well as projects. Investment and economic growth are only possible when food security is mastered. The capital allocated to food investment must be revised upwards. Demographic control is also a relevant indicator to push forward Burundi among the emerging countries in 2040. Meanwhile, better understanding of the determinants of poverty by taking cultural and organizational aspects into account guides managers for poverty reduction projects and programs.展开更多
A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability.Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow R...A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability.Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)featuring high water stress,intense human interference,and a fragile ecosystem has always been a complex challenge.Here,we propose a conceptual modeling framework to capture key human-natural components and their interactions,focusing on human-water dynamics.The modeling framework encompasses five human(Population,Economy,Energy,Food,and Water Demand)and five natural sectors(Water Supply,Sediment,Land,Carbon,and Climate)that can be either fully interactive or standalone.The modeling framework,implemented using the system dynamics(SD)approach,can well reproduce the basin's historical evolution in human-natural processes and predict future dynamics under various scenarios.The flexibility,adaptability,and potential for integration with diverse methods position the framework as an instructive tool for guiding regional CHANS modeling.Our insights highlight pathways to advance regional CHANS modeling and its application to address regional sustainability challenges.展开更多
Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scien...Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).展开更多
Sheath blight of rice, caused by Rhizoctonia solani AG 1. 1a, has become the most important disease and caused serious yield losses in some major rice-growing regions in China in recent years. In the present study, fi...Sheath blight of rice, caused by Rhizoctonia solani AG 1. 1a, has become the most important disease and caused serious yield losses in some major rice-growing regions in China in recent years. In the present study, field plot experiment was conducted to examine the relationships between disease intensity and inoculum density （ID）, the seasonal disease epidemic dynamics, and yield reductions due to disease damages. Results from the experiment demonstrated that the areas under progress curves of disease severity and those of percent rice tillers diseased were positively and closely related to the relative initial ID of the pathogen. The inoculum density-disease （IDD） relationships were simulated and the impractical linear models were obtained. Both logistic and Gompertz functions could be used to simulate the disease progress dynamics in time, but the progress curves of the disease severity were modeled better by the Gompertz than by logistic function. However, the Richards function was found to be the best in simulating the disease progress curves when a most appropriate value was chosen for the shape parameter m by using the computer software Epitimulator. Sheath blight infection decreased rice yield very significantly and a yield reduction of 40% was recorded in rice crop with the highest inoculum density. Rice yield was linearly and negatively correlated with the disease severity and the percent tillers affected. The simulated models for all these relationships were computed through executing Epitimulator software and were presented in this paper.展开更多
Using the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE, we built a model to simulate the development of resilient human settlement in Changsha. This model includes five subsystems: living, economy, society, ecology ...Using the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE, we built a model to simulate the development of resilient human settlement in Changsha. This model includes five subsystems: living, economy, society, ecology and engineering. The model simulates various scenarios, based on different parameter settings to predict the trend of human settlement from 2019–2040 in Changsha. It puts forward four development programs under different simulation scenarios. The results show that the current system of human settling lacks self-regulation and feedback, where simple increases in the economy and urbanization cannot drive the internal system to progress positively. In contrast, the resilient human settlement program is more reasonable and scientific, up to the year 2040, the production, living and ecological environment of residents will be markedly improved in terms of per capita disposable income, per capita floor space and medical insurance coverage;these will increase by 98.9%, 39.7%, and 170.7%, respectively. This system of developing resilient human settlement provides feedback according to the internal relation loops and thus drives itself to adjust and recover, achieving harmonious and sustainable development. In the forthcoming development, we should take the initiative to optimize economic development and upgrade industrial structures, establish emergency plans and response mechanisms to enhance human quality of life.展开更多
The Three Gorges Project,the largest water conservation initiative globally,is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),a critical zone for water conservation and ecological protection.There is an urgent n...The Three Gorges Project,the largest water conservation initiative globally,is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),a critical zone for water conservation and ecological protection.There is an urgent need to better understand and protect the evolving water conservation functions of the TGRA,alongside identifying the driving mechanisms within its ecological barrier re-gion.This paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution of water conservation function in the TGRA from 1990 to 2020 and its fu-ture trends under different development scenarios from 2020 to 2030.Key driving factors influencing the water conservation function are identified,and a comprehensive development scenario is proposed.The findings indicate a general upward trend in the water conser-vation function of the TGRA,characterized by an initial increase,a subsequent decline,and a final recovery.Moreover,land use changes are found to be the primary factor driving these variations,followed by climatic factors such as precipitation.Under various de-velopment scenarios,the prioritization of water conservation outcomes is ranked as follows:ecological protection>cropland protec-tion>natural development>urban development.The results of this study offer valuable insights for balancing economic development with ecological preservation.展开更多
文摘Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982. Since that time, socio economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards. More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development. And an effective planning for the local society management system is urgently desired. In this study, a regional sustainable development system dynamics model, named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task. MiyunSD consists of dynamic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system. Such models are capable of simulating the system′s behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future. For the study case, interactions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically. Three planning alternatives are carefully considered. The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human activities will prevail in the entire planning horizon, and the other alternatives are based on previous and present planning studies. The different alternatives will get different system′s environmental and socio economic results. Through analyzing these dynamic results, local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951004)a project of Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences (XJYS0907-2009-02)
文摘The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.
基金Project supported by the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong,China
文摘Sustainable performance is expected to become a major factor when examining the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its life cycle performance. The study on which this paper is based developed a simulation model, using system dy- namics methodology, to assess the sustainable performance of projects. Three major factors are used to examine project sus- tainable performance (PSP): the sustainability of economic development (E), the sustainability of social development (S), and the sustainability of environmental development (En). Sustainable development ability (SDA) was used as a prototype to evaluate the degree of sustainable performance. The simulation software ‘ithink’ was used to help with the application of the model to a real life case. This paper explains and demonstrates the procedures used to develop the model and finally offers an approach for assessing the feasibility of a construction project in terms of its sustainable performance.
文摘System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.
文摘The mathematical and statistical modeling of the problem of poverty is a major challenge given Burundi’s economic development. Innovative economic optimization systems are widely needed to face the problem of the dynamic of the poverty in Burundi. The Burundian economy shows an inflation rate of -1.5% in 2018 for the Gross Domestic Product growth real rate of 2.8% in 2016. In this research, the aim is to find a model that contributes to solving the problem of poverty in Burundi. The results of this research fill the knowledge gap in the modeling and optimization of the Burundian economic system. The aim of this model is to solve an optimization problem combining the variables of production, consumption, budget, human resources and available raw materials. Scientific modeling and optimal solving of the poverty problem show the tools for measuring poverty rate and determining various countries’ poverty levels when considering advanced knowledge. In addition, investigating the aspects of poverty will properly orient development aid to developing countries and thus, achieve their objectives of growth and the fight against poverty. This paper provides a new and innovative framework for global scientific research regarding the multiple facets of this problem. An estimate of the poverty rate allows good progress with the theory and optimization methods in measuring the poverty rate and achieving sustainable development goals. By comparing the annual food production and the required annual consumption, there is an imbalance between different types of food. Proteins, minerals and vitamins produced in Burundi are sufficient when considering their consumption as required by the entire Burundian population. This positive contribution for the latter comes from the fact that some cows, goats, fishes, ···, slaughtered in Burundi come from neighboring countries. Real production remains in deficit. The lipids, acids, calcium, fibers and carbohydrates produced in Burundi are insufficient for consumption. This negative contribution proves a Burundian food deficit. It is a decision-making indicator for the design and updating of agricultural policy and implementation programs as well as projects. Investment and economic growth are only possible when food security is mastered. The capital allocated to food investment must be revised upwards. Demographic control is also a relevant indicator to push forward Burundi among the emerging countries in 2040. Meanwhile, better understanding of the determinants of poverty by taking cultural and organizational aspects into account guides managers for poverty reduction projects and programs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42041007)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘A mechanistic understanding and modeling of the coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)are frontier of geographical sciences and essential for promoting regional sustainability.Modeling regional CHANS in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)featuring high water stress,intense human interference,and a fragile ecosystem has always been a complex challenge.Here,we propose a conceptual modeling framework to capture key human-natural components and their interactions,focusing on human-water dynamics.The modeling framework encompasses five human(Population,Economy,Energy,Food,and Water Demand)and five natural sectors(Water Supply,Sediment,Land,Carbon,and Climate)that can be either fully interactive or standalone.The modeling framework,implemented using the system dynamics(SD)approach,can well reproduce the basin's historical evolution in human-natural processes and predict future dynamics under various scenarios.The flexibility,adaptability,and potential for integration with diverse methods position the framework as an instructive tool for guiding regional CHANS modeling.Our insights highlight pathways to advance regional CHANS modeling and its application to address regional sustainability challenges.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(31470518)The Project Supported by Institute of Culture and Tourism Development of Beijing Technology and Business University(202106104)。
文摘Beijing Municipal Administrative Center(Beijing MC)in Tongzhou District has inherited the non-capital core functions of Beijing’s central urban area,and its rapid construction and development urgently require a scientific understanding of the pattern of land use evolution in the region.This paper analyzes the pattern of land use evolution in Tongzhou District over the past 40 years,from 1980 to 2020.According to the historical evolutionary characteristics of land use and urban development planning goals,combined with the driving factors of cultural tourism development,the Future Land-use Simulation(FLUS)model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)in 2035 under three scenarios of urbanization acceleration,deceleration and sustainable development.The results show three major trends.(1)Beijing MC(Tongzhou District)is dominated by urban development and construction.During the high-speed urbanization stage from 1980 to 2010,the urban expansion pattern of“along the Sixth Ring Road and along the Grand Canal”was formed.During the low-speed urbanization stage from 2010 to 2020,the land distribution was stable,and Tongzhou District formed a pattern of urban-rural differentiation and land intensification from northwest to southeast.As a typical area of Tongzhou District’s urbanization,Beijing MC has the same characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution as Tongzhou as a whole.(2)By 2035,there are significant differences in land use among the three scenarios with respect to the magnitude of change and spatial distribution.The area and distribution of ecological land under the urban sustainable development scenario are optimal,which is conducive to the realization of sustainable urban development.In analyzing the degree of conformity with the three Beijing MC zoning plans,the prediction simulation under the sustainable development scenario is highly consistent with the land use of the“Beijing Municipal Administrative Center Regulatory Detailed Planning(Block Level)(2016–2035)”(hereinafter referred to as“Planning”)issued by the municipal government.However,there are certain deviations between the simulation predictions in the cultural tourism function area and the livable living scenery area and the corresponding“Planning”expectations.During the urban construction process,the internal ecological land area still needs to be increased.(3)Tongzhou District may lack a close connection between the urban and rural areas in the southeast.Potential risks such as the imbalance in the development of northern and southern townships require further attention in the development process.The prediction and simulation results of the model can provide certain data and methodological support for the construction of a harmonious and livable city in Beijing MC(Tongzhou District).
文摘Sheath blight of rice, caused by Rhizoctonia solani AG 1. 1a, has become the most important disease and caused serious yield losses in some major rice-growing regions in China in recent years. In the present study, field plot experiment was conducted to examine the relationships between disease intensity and inoculum density （ID）, the seasonal disease epidemic dynamics, and yield reductions due to disease damages. Results from the experiment demonstrated that the areas under progress curves of disease severity and those of percent rice tillers diseased were positively and closely related to the relative initial ID of the pathogen. The inoculum density-disease （IDD） relationships were simulated and the impractical linear models were obtained. Both logistic and Gompertz functions could be used to simulate the disease progress dynamics in time, but the progress curves of the disease severity were modeled better by the Gompertz than by logistic function. However, the Richards function was found to be the best in simulating the disease progress curves when a most appropriate value was chosen for the shape parameter m by using the computer software Epitimulator. Sheath blight infection decreased rice yield very significantly and a yield reduction of 40% was recorded in rice crop with the highest inoculum density. Rice yield was linearly and negatively correlated with the disease severity and the percent tillers affected. The simulated models for all these relationships were computed through executing Epitimulator software and were presented in this paper.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101214Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,No.2018GXNSFDA281032China Postdoctoral Science Foundation,No.2021M703177。
文摘Using the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE, we built a model to simulate the development of resilient human settlement in Changsha. This model includes five subsystems: living, economy, society, ecology and engineering. The model simulates various scenarios, based on different parameter settings to predict the trend of human settlement from 2019–2040 in Changsha. It puts forward four development programs under different simulation scenarios. The results show that the current system of human settling lacks self-regulation and feedback, where simple increases in the economy and urbanization cannot drive the internal system to progress positively. In contrast, the resilient human settlement program is more reasonable and scientific, up to the year 2040, the production, living and ecological environment of residents will be markedly improved in terms of per capita disposable income, per capita floor space and medical insurance coverage;these will increase by 98.9%, 39.7%, and 170.7%, respectively. This system of developing resilient human settlement provides feedback according to the internal relation loops and thus drives itself to adjust and recover, achieving harmonious and sustainable development. In the forthcoming development, we should take the initiative to optimize economic development and upgrade industrial structures, establish emergency plans and response mechanisms to enhance human quality of life.
基金Under the auspices of Key Project of the Ministry of Water Resources(No.E202291801,E203101901)National Key R&D Program of China(No.2019QZKK0401)。
文摘The Three Gorges Project,the largest water conservation initiative globally,is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),a critical zone for water conservation and ecological protection.There is an urgent need to better understand and protect the evolving water conservation functions of the TGRA,alongside identifying the driving mechanisms within its ecological barrier re-gion.This paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution of water conservation function in the TGRA from 1990 to 2020 and its fu-ture trends under different development scenarios from 2020 to 2030.Key driving factors influencing the water conservation function are identified,and a comprehensive development scenario is proposed.The findings indicate a general upward trend in the water conser-vation function of the TGRA,characterized by an initial increase,a subsequent decline,and a final recovery.Moreover,land use changes are found to be the primary factor driving these variations,followed by climatic factors such as precipitation.Under various de-velopment scenarios,the prioritization of water conservation outcomes is ranked as follows:ecological protection>cropland protec-tion>natural development>urban development.The results of this study offer valuable insights for balancing economic development with ecological preservation.
