摘要
【目的】城市三维增长与文化古迹保护之间的冲突矛盾给可持续发展带来了挑战。开展古迹保护约束下城市三维空间增长模拟,可以为城市空间布局优化、遗址管控与治理以及可持续发展目标的实现提供有效空间决策支持。然而,当前顾及古迹保护的城市三维增长情景模拟研究较少。【方法】本文构建了一个三维分区GA-CA-Markov模型,以西安都市圈为研究区,首先,利用分区GA-CA-Markov模型预测古遗迹约束条件下的城市水平增长3种情景,其次,基于随机森林模型对新增建设用地进行城市功能类型分类,并采用LightGBM模型预测各功能区的建筑高度,从而预测古遗迹保护约束下城市三维空间增长。【结果】结果显示:①三维分区GA-CA-Markov模型能够有效模拟古迹约束下城市增长格局,城市水平增长模拟的总体精度达到89.65%,FoM系数达到0.2740,建筑高度均方根误差在1.7~2.8 m之间。②古迹保护情景下,新增建设用地以住宅与公共服务用地为主,并呈现跳跃式与边缘式增长,整体形成低密度的有序扩张格局;新增建筑高度受到严格控制,以中低层建筑为主,通过限制垂直发展有效协调了城市扩张与古迹保护之间的关系。③古迹周边0.5 km的住宅和公共服务用地建筑高度受到了显著控制,有效维护了城市景观的整体协调性。【结论】三维分区GA-CA-Markov模型可广泛应用于古城的三维空间精细模拟与预测,为城市古迹保护和空间治理提供科学依据。
[Objectives]The spatial conflict between three-dimensional(3D)urban growth and cultural heritage preservation poses a significant challenge to sustainable development.Simulating 3D urban expansion scenarios under heritage protection constraints can provide scientific evidence and decision-making support for optimizing spatial layouts,enhancing site management,and achieving long-term sustainability goals.However,few studies have incorporated heritage preservation factors into the modeling frameworks of three-dimensional urban growth scenarios,leaving a critical research gap in the simulation of 3D expansion in historical cities.[Methods]This study proposes an integrated 3D Zoning GA-CA-Markov model,specifically designed to account for the constraints imposed by historical and cultural heritage sites during urban expansion.The model introduces a spatially explicit zoning strategy that incorporates protection factors related to heritage areas.Using the Xi’an metropolitan area—rich in cultural relics and historical landmarks,as a case study,the methodology includes three main steps.First,three horizontal urban expansion scenarios under heritage protection constraints are simulated using the Zoning GA-CA-Markov model.Second,the newly developed land patches are classified into urban functional types using a random forest classifier.Third,the building heights across different functional zones are predicted using a LightGBM regression model,which generates a 3D urban form that reflects both spatial growth and vertical development dynamics under heritage limitations.[Results]The results indicate that:(1)The proposed 3D Zoning GA-CA-Markov model effectively reproduces the spatial patterns of urban expansion under cultural heritage constraints.The horizontal urban growth simulation achieves an overall accuracy of 89.65%,a Kappa coefficient of 0.7582,and a Figure of Merit(FoM)of 0.2740.The Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the building height prediction ranges from 1.7 to 2.8 meters.(2)Reasonable height limits and spatial planning can optimize urban growth patterns,achieving a balance between development and heritage conservation.Under the heritage protection scenario,newly developed land exhibits a predominantly low-to mid-rise 3D growth structure.Urban growth follows leapfrog and edge-expansion patterns,dominated by residential and public service functions.Height restrictions result in low-density,controlled development,with most new buildings limited to heights between 12 and 16 meters,and some areas below 12 meters.(3)In areas adjacent to heritage sites,building heights of residential and public service zones are significantly limited to maintain visual harmony and spatial coordination.In contrast,industrial land is less influenced by heritage constraints,with building heights primarily driven by economic and transportation factors.[Conclusions]The 3D Zoning GA-CA-Markov model can be broadly applied to simulate and predict 3D spatial expansion in historically and culturally significant cities.It offers practical support for the coordinated regulation of urban growth and heritage preservation strategies.
作者
李宇昂
周亮
孙钦珂
王少华
黄春林
LI Yu'ang;ZHOU Liang;SUN Qinke;WANG Shaohua;HUANG Chunlin(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;National Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Application for National Geographic State Monitoring,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying&Mapping,Lanzhou 730070,China;Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China;Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《地球信息科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第7期1704-1720,共17页
Journal of Geo-information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42271214)
甘肃省青年科技基金项目(25JRRA209)
兰州市人才创新创业项目(2024-3-93)。
关键词
城市三维
古遗迹保护
多情景模拟
可持续发展
元胞自动机
LightGBM模型
都市圈
three-dimensional city
heritage site protection
multi-scenario simulation
sustainable development
cellular automata
LightGBM model
metropolitan area
