The method of cloud model with entropy weight was adopted for the prediction of rock burst classification. Some main factors of rock burst including the uniaxial compressive strength （σc）, the tensile strength （σ...The method of cloud model with entropy weight was adopted for the prediction of rock burst classification. Some main factors of rock burst including the uniaxial compressive strength （σc）, the tensile strength （σt）, the tangential stress （σθ）, the rock brittleness coefficient （σc/σt）, the stress coefficient （σθ /σc） and the elastic energy index （Wet） are chosen to establish evaluation index system. The entropy？cloud model and criterion are obtained through 209 sets of rock burst samples from underground rock projects. The sensitivity of indicators is analyzed and 209 sets of rock burst samples are discriminated by this model. The discriminant results of the entropy-cloud model are compared with those of Bayes, KNN and RF methods. The results show that the sensitivity order of those factors from high to low is σ_θ /σ_c, σ_θ, W_（ct）, σ_c/σ_t, σ_t, σ_c, and the entropy-cloud model has higher accuracy than Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm （KNN） and Random Forest （RF） methods.展开更多
The research of groundwater vulnerability is the basic work to protect the groundwater. For utilizing groundwater resource continuably, groundwater vulnerability evaluation is necessary. Useful reference to protect, e...The research of groundwater vulnerability is the basic work to protect the groundwater. For utilizing groundwater resource continuably, groundwater vulnerability evaluation is necessary. Useful reference to protect, exploit and utilize on groundwater resource are provided rationally. According to the real condition of Sanjiang Plain, the indexes system is established based on the traditional DRASTIC model. The new system includes the following seven indexes： Depth of Water, Net Recharge, Aquifer Media, Soil Media, Conductivity of the Aquifer, Land Utilizing Ratio and Populace Density. The related analysis appears that the system is rather reasonable. Because traditional methods, such as analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, can＇t be avoided human interference in selection of weights, they could lead to an imprecise result. In order to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability reasonably, entropy weight coefficient method is applied for the first time, which provides a new way to groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The method is a model whose weights are insured by the calculation process, so the artificial disturb can be avoided. It has been used to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability in Sanjiang Plain. The satisfied result is acquired. Comparably, the same result is acquired by the other method named projection pursuit evaluation based on real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm. It shows that entropy weight coefficient method is applicable on groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The evaluation result can provide reference on the decision-making departments.展开更多
Since existing selection methods of surgical treatment schemes of renal cancer patients mainly depend on physicians’clinical experience and judgments,the surgical treatment options of renal cancer patients lack their...Since existing selection methods of surgical treatment schemes of renal cancer patients mainly depend on physicians’clinical experience and judgments,the surgical treatment options of renal cancer patients lack their scientifical and reasonable information expression and group decision-making model for renal cancer patients.Fuzzy multi-sets(FMSs)have a number of properties,which make them suitable for expressing the uncertain information of medical diagnoses and treatments in group decision-making(GDM)problems.To choose the most appropriate surgical treatment scheme for a patient with localized renal cell carcinoma(RCC)(T1 stage kidney tumor),this article needs to develop an effective GDM model based on the fuzzy multivalued evaluation information of the renal cancer patients.First,we propose a conversionmethod of transforming FMSs into entropy fuzzy sets(EFSs)based on the mean and Shannon entropy of a fuzzy sequence in FMS to reasonably simplify the information expression and operations of FMSs and define the score function of an entropy fuzzy element(EFE)for ranking EFEs.Second,we present the Aczel-Alsina t-norm and t-conorm operations of EFEs and the EFE Aczel-Alsina weighted arithmetic averaging(EFEAAWAA)and EFE Aczel-Alsina weighted geometric averaging(EFEAAWGA)operators.Third,we develop a multicriteria GDM model of renal cancer surgery options in the setting of FMSs.Finally,the proposed GDM model is applied to two clinical cases of renal cancer patients to choose the best surgical treatment scheme for a renal cancer patient in the setting of FMSs.The selected results of two clinical cases verify the efficiency and rationality of the proposed GDM model in the setting of FMSs.展开更多
According to the relevant statistical data in National Agricultural cost-benefit Data Compilation(2001- 2013),we use the modified entropy weight- TOPSIS model to research the cost-benefit status of scale pig breeding ...According to the relevant statistical data in National Agricultural cost-benefit Data Compilation(2001- 2013),we use the modified entropy weight- TOPSIS model to research the cost-benefit status of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province from the perspective of comparing it with that of the entire country and 9 other main pig producing areas. The results show that compared with the national average,the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is lower,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is significantly improved; the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is basically the same as that in 9 other main pig producing areas,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is higher; the output value of main products and the purchase price of piglet are two major bottlenecks restricting the cost-benefit improvement of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province.展开更多
This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qu...This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods.The system not only pays attention to students’practical operation and theoretical knowledge mastery but also puts special emphasis on the cultivation of students’innovative abilities.In order to realize a comprehensive and objective evaluation,the assessment and evaluation method of the entropy weight model combining TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)multi-attribute decision analysis and entropy weight theory is adopted,and its validity and practicability are verified through example analysis.This method can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate students’learning outcomes,but also provide a scientific decision-making basis for curriculum teaching reform.The implementation of this diversified course evaluation system can better reflect the comprehensive ability of students and promote the continuous improvement of teaching quality.展开更多
The current research of configurable product disassemblability focuses on disassemblability evaluation and disassembly sequence planning. Little work has been done on quantitative analysis of configurable product disa...The current research of configurable product disassemblability focuses on disassemblability evaluation and disassembly sequence planning. Little work has been done on quantitative analysis of configurable product disassemblability. The disassemblability modeling technology for configurable product based on disassembly constraint relation weighted design structure matrix （DSM） is proposed. Major factors affecting the disassemblability of configurable product are analyzed, and the disassembling degrees between components in configurable product are obtained by calculating disassembly entropies such as joint type, joint quantity, disassembly path, disassembly accessibility and material compatibility. The disassembly constraint relation weighted DSM of configurable product is constructed and configuration modules are formed by matrix decomposition and tearing operations. The disassembly constraint relation in configuration modules is strong coupling, and the disassembly constraint relation between modules is weak coupling, and the disassemblability configuration model is constructed based on configuration module. Finally, taking a hydraulic forging press as an example, the decomposed weak coupling components are used as configuration modules alone, components with a strong coupling are aggregated into configuration modules, and the disassembly sequence of components inside configuration modules is optimized by tearing operation. A disassemblability configuration model of the hydraulic forging press is constructed. By researching the disassemblability modeling technology of product configuration design based on disassembly constraint relation weighted DSM, the disassembly property in maintenance, recycling and reuse of configurable product are optimized.展开更多
Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors infl...Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.展开更多
Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called ent...Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.展开更多
Due to complex geological structures and a narrow safe mud density window,offshore fractured formations frequently encounter severe lost circulation(LC)during drilling,significantly hindering oil and gas exploration a...Due to complex geological structures and a narrow safe mud density window,offshore fractured formations frequently encounter severe lost circulation(LC)during drilling,significantly hindering oil and gas exploration and development.Predicting LC risks enables the targeted implementation of mitigation strategies,thereby reducing the frequency of such incidents.To address the limitations of existing 3D geomechanical modeling in predicting LC,such as arbitrary factor selection,subjective weight assignment,and the inability to achieve pre-drilling prediction along the entire well section,an improved prediction method is proposed.This method integrates multi-source data and incorporates three LC-related sensitivity factors:fracture characteristics,rock brittleness,and in-situ stress conditions.A quantitative risk assessment model for LC is developed by combining the subjective analytic hierarchy process with the objective entropy weight method(EWM)to assign weights.Subsequently,3D geomechanical modeling is applied to identify regional risk zones,enabling digital visualization for pre-drilling risk prediction.The developed 3D LC risk prediction model was validated using actual LC incidents from drilled wells.Results were generally consistent with field-identified LC zones,with an average relative error of 19.08%,confirming its reliability.This method provides practical guidance for mitigating potential LC risks and optimizing drilling program designs in fractured formations.展开更多
New energy-storage systems play a pivotal role in the development of the new power system for advancing the energy transition in China.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”for the New Energy-Storage Development,it is proposed...New energy-storage systems play a pivotal role in the development of the new power system for advancing the energy transition in China.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”for the New Energy-Storage Development,it is proposed to expand investment and construction models by promoting the deployment of energy-storage facilities through the ways of self-construction,leasing,and purchasing,and to encourage the development of the shared energy-storage.However,the current scarcity in the model of the shared energy-storage invest-ment and construction substantially restricts its development,particularly due to unclear mechanisms for cost and benefit allocation,which also discourages potential investors.To address the issue,this paper proposes investment and construction models for shared energy-storage that aligns with the present stage of energy storage development.In specific,three main models are introduced:(1)Cen-tralized Self-built Shared Energy-Storage model(CSSES),(2)Third-party Investment Shared Energy-Storage model(TISES),and(3)Distributed Self-built Shared Energy Storage(DSSES)model.The cost–benefit analysis is conducted for each model.The results indicate that the CSSES model achieves the highest internal rate of return(11.5%)and the shortest payback period,while the DSSES model per-forms acceptable with an IRR of 9.4%.In contrast,the TISES model shows the lowest IRR(6.7%)and requires higher electricity price for being feasible.Furthermore,the study employs the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)for indicator eval-uation,and integrates the technique for order preference by the similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)for scheme optimization.The results show that both the CSSES model and the DSSES model achieve the highest proximity scores.Under environmental regulations,these models demonstrate superior economic benefits by optimizing energy storage utilization,reducing user costs,and enhancing overall profitability.展开更多
目的针对飞机货舱配载方案评估中多属性决策的复杂性,以及现有评估方法在权重确定上过度依赖专家经验导致的主观偏差,或单纯依赖客观数据忽略决策者偏好的局限性,提出一种融合主观先验与客观数据驱动的混合赋权评估模型,以提供更为合理...目的针对飞机货舱配载方案评估中多属性决策的复杂性,以及现有评估方法在权重确定上过度依赖专家经验导致的主观偏差,或单纯依赖客观数据忽略决策者偏好的局限性,提出一种融合主观先验与客观数据驱动的混合赋权评估模型,以提供更为合理、可靠的配载方案择优决策支持。方法首先,引入大型语言模型(Large language model,LLM),构建“虚拟专家委员会”,通过精心设计的提示词工程,获取多维度、多情境下的主观权重。其次,针对传统熵权法对数据分布敏感、难以有效区分指标优劣等问题,提出一种改进的数据预处理熵权法(Improved data preprocessing entropy weighting method,IDPEW),该方法结合指标值的辨识度和信息熵的均衡性来确定客观权重。最后,将LLM生成的主观权重与IDPEW计算的客观权重进行加权组合,构建综合评价函数,对飞机货舱配载方案进行全面评估和排序。结果实验结果表明,LLM模拟专家意见时最关注“装载率”(主观权重0.2250),而IDPEW方法从数据中识别出“横向不平衡度”最具区分力(客观权重0.2481)。混合赋权模型(α=0.5)有效平衡了主客观偏好,在24个方案中精准识别出综合性能最优的方案,验证了模型在复杂情境下的稳定性。结论创新性地利用LLM低成本构建“虚拟专家”获取先验知识,并通过耦合指标辨识度与均衡性的IDPEW方法,提升了客观赋权精度。该模型克服了单一赋权的局限,为飞机货舱配载方案的科学评估提供了一种兼具可解释性和实用性的新范式。展开更多
基金Projects(51474252,51274253)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2015CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Plan of Central South University,ChinaProject(2016zzts095)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘The method of cloud model with entropy weight was adopted for the prediction of rock burst classification. Some main factors of rock burst including the uniaxial compressive strength （σc）, the tensile strength （σt）, the tangential stress （σθ）, the rock brittleness coefficient （σc/σt）, the stress coefficient （σθ /σc） and the elastic energy index （Wet） are chosen to establish evaluation index system. The entropy？cloud model and criterion are obtained through 209 sets of rock burst samples from underground rock projects. The sensitivity of indicators is analyzed and 209 sets of rock burst samples are discriminated by this model. The discriminant results of the entropy-cloud model are compared with those of Bayes, KNN and RF methods. The results show that the sensitivity order of those factors from high to low is σ_θ /σ_c, σ_θ, W_（ct）, σ_c/σ_t, σ_t, σ_c, and the entropy-cloud model has higher accuracy than Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm （KNN） and Random Forest （RF） methods.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(30400275)the Tackle Key Problems of Heilongjiang Province(the Hobbledehoy Science Fund of Heilongjiang Province)(QC04C28)
文摘The research of groundwater vulnerability is the basic work to protect the groundwater. For utilizing groundwater resource continuably, groundwater vulnerability evaluation is necessary. Useful reference to protect, exploit and utilize on groundwater resource are provided rationally. According to the real condition of Sanjiang Plain, the indexes system is established based on the traditional DRASTIC model. The new system includes the following seven indexes： Depth of Water, Net Recharge, Aquifer Media, Soil Media, Conductivity of the Aquifer, Land Utilizing Ratio and Populace Density. The related analysis appears that the system is rather reasonable. Because traditional methods, such as analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory, can＇t be avoided human interference in selection of weights, they could lead to an imprecise result. In order to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability reasonably, entropy weight coefficient method is applied for the first time, which provides a new way to groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The method is a model whose weights are insured by the calculation process, so the artificial disturb can be avoided. It has been used to evaluate the groundwater vulnerability in Sanjiang Plain. The satisfied result is acquired. Comparably, the same result is acquired by the other method named projection pursuit evaluation based on real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm. It shows that entropy weight coefficient method is applicable on groundwater vulnerability evaluation. The evaluation result can provide reference on the decision-making departments.
基金This study has received funding by the Science and Technology Plan Project of Keqiao District(No.2020KZ58).
文摘Since existing selection methods of surgical treatment schemes of renal cancer patients mainly depend on physicians’clinical experience and judgments,the surgical treatment options of renal cancer patients lack their scientifical and reasonable information expression and group decision-making model for renal cancer patients.Fuzzy multi-sets(FMSs)have a number of properties,which make them suitable for expressing the uncertain information of medical diagnoses and treatments in group decision-making(GDM)problems.To choose the most appropriate surgical treatment scheme for a patient with localized renal cell carcinoma(RCC)(T1 stage kidney tumor),this article needs to develop an effective GDM model based on the fuzzy multivalued evaluation information of the renal cancer patients.First,we propose a conversionmethod of transforming FMSs into entropy fuzzy sets(EFSs)based on the mean and Shannon entropy of a fuzzy sequence in FMS to reasonably simplify the information expression and operations of FMSs and define the score function of an entropy fuzzy element(EFE)for ranking EFEs.Second,we present the Aczel-Alsina t-norm and t-conorm operations of EFEs and the EFE Aczel-Alsina weighted arithmetic averaging(EFEAAWAA)and EFE Aczel-Alsina weighted geometric averaging(EFEAAWGA)operators.Third,we develop a multicriteria GDM model of renal cancer surgery options in the setting of FMSs.Finally,the proposed GDM model is applied to two clinical cases of renal cancer patients to choose the best surgical treatment scheme for a renal cancer patient in the setting of FMSs.The selected results of two clinical cases verify the efficiency and rationality of the proposed GDM model in the setting of FMSs.
基金Supported by Pig Industry Innovation Team Building Program of Modern Agricultural Industrial Technology System in Shandong Province(SDAIT-06-011-10)"Issues concerning Agriculture,Farmers and Countryside"Soft Science Base Project in Shandong Province
文摘According to the relevant statistical data in National Agricultural cost-benefit Data Compilation(2001- 2013),we use the modified entropy weight- TOPSIS model to research the cost-benefit status of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province from the perspective of comparing it with that of the entire country and 9 other main pig producing areas. The results show that compared with the national average,the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is lower,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is significantly improved; the cost-benefit ratio of small scale pig breeding in Shandong Province is basically the same as that in 9 other main pig producing areas,while the cost-benefit ratio of medium scale and large scale pig breeding is higher; the output value of main products and the purchase price of piglet are two major bottlenecks restricting the cost-benefit improvement of scale pig breeding in Shandong Province.
基金2024 Key Project of Teaching Reform Research and Practice in Higher Education in Henan Province“Exploration and Practice of Training Model for Outstanding Students in Basic Mechanics Discipline”(2024SJGLX094)Henan Province“Mechanics+X”Basic Discipline Outstanding Student Training Base2024 Research and Practice Project of Higher Education Teaching Reform in Henan University of Science and Technology“Optimization and Practice of Ability-Oriented Teaching Mode for Computational Mechanics Course:A New Exploration in Cultivating Practical Simulation Engineers”(2024BK074)。
文摘This paper takes the assessment and evaluation of computational mechanics course as the background,and constructs a diversified course evaluation system that is student-centered and integrates both quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods.The system not only pays attention to students’practical operation and theoretical knowledge mastery but also puts special emphasis on the cultivation of students’innovative abilities.In order to realize a comprehensive and objective evaluation,the assessment and evaluation method of the entropy weight model combining TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)multi-attribute decision analysis and entropy weight theory is adopted,and its validity and practicability are verified through example analysis.This method can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate students’learning outcomes,but also provide a scientific decision-making basis for curriculum teaching reform.The implementation of this diversified course evaluation system can better reflect the comprehensive ability of students and promote the continuous improvement of teaching quality.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51375437)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.LY12E05019)
文摘The current research of configurable product disassemblability focuses on disassemblability evaluation and disassembly sequence planning. Little work has been done on quantitative analysis of configurable product disassemblability. The disassemblability modeling technology for configurable product based on disassembly constraint relation weighted design structure matrix （DSM） is proposed. Major factors affecting the disassemblability of configurable product are analyzed, and the disassembling degrees between components in configurable product are obtained by calculating disassembly entropies such as joint type, joint quantity, disassembly path, disassembly accessibility and material compatibility. The disassembly constraint relation weighted DSM of configurable product is constructed and configuration modules are formed by matrix decomposition and tearing operations. The disassembly constraint relation in configuration modules is strong coupling, and the disassembly constraint relation between modules is weak coupling, and the disassemblability configuration model is constructed based on configuration module. Finally, taking a hydraulic forging press as an example, the decomposed weak coupling components are used as configuration modules alone, components with a strong coupling are aggregated into configuration modules, and the disassembly sequence of components inside configuration modules is optimized by tearing operation. A disassemblability configuration model of the hydraulic forging press is constructed. By researching the disassemblability modeling technology of product configuration design based on disassembly constraint relation weighted DSM, the disassembly property in maintenance, recycling and reuse of configurable product are optimized.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41871176The“Hua Bo”Plan of Central China Normal UniversityPostgraduate Education Innovation Subsidy Project of Central China Normal University,No.2018CXZZ004。
文摘Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project during the 13th Five-Year Plan under grant(2016ZX05060-019)the National Science and Technology Major Project during the 13th Five-Year Plan under grant(2016ZX05060004).
文摘Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52074312)the CNPC Science and Technology Innovation Foundation(No.2021DQ02-0505)+1 种基金the Open Fund Project of the National Key Laboratory for the Enrichment Mechanism and Efficient Development of Shale Oil and Gas(No.36650000-24-ZC0609-0006)the Major Science and Technology Project of Karamay City(No.20232023zdzx0003).
文摘Due to complex geological structures and a narrow safe mud density window,offshore fractured formations frequently encounter severe lost circulation(LC)during drilling,significantly hindering oil and gas exploration and development.Predicting LC risks enables the targeted implementation of mitigation strategies,thereby reducing the frequency of such incidents.To address the limitations of existing 3D geomechanical modeling in predicting LC,such as arbitrary factor selection,subjective weight assignment,and the inability to achieve pre-drilling prediction along the entire well section,an improved prediction method is proposed.This method integrates multi-source data and incorporates three LC-related sensitivity factors:fracture characteristics,rock brittleness,and in-situ stress conditions.A quantitative risk assessment model for LC is developed by combining the subjective analytic hierarchy process with the objective entropy weight method(EWM)to assign weights.Subsequently,3D geomechanical modeling is applied to identify regional risk zones,enabling digital visualization for pre-drilling risk prediction.The developed 3D LC risk prediction model was validated using actual LC incidents from drilled wells.Results were generally consistent with field-identified LC zones,with an average relative error of 19.08%,confirming its reliability.This method provides practical guidance for mitigating potential LC risks and optimizing drilling program designs in fractured formations.
基金supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund of China(Grant No.21YJA790009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72140001).
文摘New energy-storage systems play a pivotal role in the development of the new power system for advancing the energy transition in China.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”for the New Energy-Storage Development,it is proposed to expand investment and construction models by promoting the deployment of energy-storage facilities through the ways of self-construction,leasing,and purchasing,and to encourage the development of the shared energy-storage.However,the current scarcity in the model of the shared energy-storage invest-ment and construction substantially restricts its development,particularly due to unclear mechanisms for cost and benefit allocation,which also discourages potential investors.To address the issue,this paper proposes investment and construction models for shared energy-storage that aligns with the present stage of energy storage development.In specific,three main models are introduced:(1)Cen-tralized Self-built Shared Energy-Storage model(CSSES),(2)Third-party Investment Shared Energy-Storage model(TISES),and(3)Distributed Self-built Shared Energy Storage(DSSES)model.The cost–benefit analysis is conducted for each model.The results indicate that the CSSES model achieves the highest internal rate of return(11.5%)and the shortest payback period,while the DSSES model per-forms acceptable with an IRR of 9.4%.In contrast,the TISES model shows the lowest IRR(6.7%)and requires higher electricity price for being feasible.Furthermore,the study employs the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)for indicator eval-uation,and integrates the technique for order preference by the similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)for scheme optimization.The results show that both the CSSES model and the DSSES model achieve the highest proximity scores.Under environmental regulations,these models demonstrate superior economic benefits by optimizing energy storage utilization,reducing user costs,and enhancing overall profitability.
文摘目的针对飞机货舱配载方案评估中多属性决策的复杂性,以及现有评估方法在权重确定上过度依赖专家经验导致的主观偏差,或单纯依赖客观数据忽略决策者偏好的局限性,提出一种融合主观先验与客观数据驱动的混合赋权评估模型,以提供更为合理、可靠的配载方案择优决策支持。方法首先,引入大型语言模型(Large language model,LLM),构建“虚拟专家委员会”,通过精心设计的提示词工程,获取多维度、多情境下的主观权重。其次,针对传统熵权法对数据分布敏感、难以有效区分指标优劣等问题,提出一种改进的数据预处理熵权法(Improved data preprocessing entropy weighting method,IDPEW),该方法结合指标值的辨识度和信息熵的均衡性来确定客观权重。最后,将LLM生成的主观权重与IDPEW计算的客观权重进行加权组合,构建综合评价函数,对飞机货舱配载方案进行全面评估和排序。结果实验结果表明,LLM模拟专家意见时最关注“装载率”(主观权重0.2250),而IDPEW方法从数据中识别出“横向不平衡度”最具区分力(客观权重0.2481)。混合赋权模型(α=0.5)有效平衡了主客观偏好,在24个方案中精准识别出综合性能最优的方案,验证了模型在复杂情境下的稳定性。结论创新性地利用LLM低成本构建“虚拟专家”获取先验知识,并通过耦合指标辨识度与均衡性的IDPEW方法,提升了客观赋权精度。该模型克服了单一赋权的局限,为飞机货舱配载方案的科学评估提供了一种兼具可解释性和实用性的新范式。
