摘要
流域水资源、水环境、水生态、水灾害四水系统之间存在诸多复杂关系,分析四水系统协同演化水平可为水资源优化配置、水生态环境保护、水灾害防御等提供理论依据。以2013—2022年黄河流域陕西段8个地级市为研究对象,利用频度统计法、专家咨询法、主成分分析法等优选四水系统指标,并构建相应的指标体系,运用熵权法计算得到四水系统各指标权重,建立哈肯模型分析协同系统的序参量和协同水平。结果表明:1)水环境子系统综合值总体大于其他3个子系统,并呈较快的上升趋势,水环境子系统的发展优于其他3个子系统;2)水环境子系统为四水系统的序参量,所有地级市协同得分均呈上升趋势,其中榆林市、渭南市、咸阳市、西安市比其他4个地级市增长更快,但在2022年远低于其他4个地级市(渭南市例外,2022年渭南市协同得分增长至0.95);3)在关中和陕北地区,应分别优化产业布局和引领能源革命来提升黄河流域陕西段四水系统协同演化水平。
There are many complex relationships among water resources,water environment,water ecology and water disaster“four⁃water”system in a basin.Analyzing the level of internal co⁃evolution of the four⁃water system can provide theoretical basis for optimal allocation of water resources,protection of water ecological environment and water disaster prevention.Eight prefecture⁃level cities in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2022 were selected as research areas,and frequency statistics,expert consultation,principal component analysis and other methods were used to optimize the four⁃water system indicators,and the corresponding index system was constructed.The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weights of each index of the four⁃water system,and the Haken model was established to analyze the order parameters and coordination level of the cooperative system.The results show that:a)The comprehensive value of the water environment subsystem is higher than that of the other three subsystems with showing a relatively rapid upward trend,and the development of the water environment subsystem is better than that of the other three subsystems;b)The water environment subsystem is the order parameter of the four⁃water system,and the synergy scores of all prefecture⁃level cities show an upward trend,among which Yulin,Weinan,Xianyang and Xian grow faster than the other four prefecture⁃level cities,but are much lower than the other four prefecture⁃level cities in 2022(Weinan is the exception,the synergy score increases to more than 0.95 in 2022);c)In Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi,industrial layout and energy revolution should be optimized respectively to improve the level of four⁃water system co⁃evolution in Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.
作者
余煌浩
李彬权
赵麦换
李匡
陈丞
YU Huanghao;LI Binquan;ZHAO Maihuan;LI Kuang;CHEN Cheng(State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
北大核心
2026年第3期73-79,共7页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209204)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42471049)。
关键词
水资源
水环境
水生态
水灾害
熵权法
哈肯模型
协同水平
黄河流域陕西段
water resources
water environment
water ecology
water disaster
entropy weight method
Haken model
coordination level
Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin
