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Reform of Teacher-Machine-Student Interactive Teaching Model of“HarmonyOS Development Technology”Course Based on Congyou Platform
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作者 Yixian Liu Jun Guo +1 位作者 Dongming Chen Zhiliang Zhu 《计算机教育》 2026年第3期158-166,共9页
Aiming at the problems of lagging curriculum,weak practice,and single evaluation in the cultivation of HarmonyOS Development talents,this study constructs a“teacher-machine-student”ternary interactive teaching model... Aiming at the problems of lagging curriculum,weak practice,and single evaluation in the cultivation of HarmonyOS Development talents,this study constructs a“teacher-machine-student”ternary interactive teaching model based on the Congyou platform.Through the building block curriculum system,the HarmonyOS technology stack is decoupled into dynamic capability units,and a multi-disciplinary cross-case library is jointly built with Huawei,which significantly improves the synchronization of teaching content and industrial technology.This paper innovatively designs an AI collaborative teaching system,which employs knowledge graphs to plan learning paths,utilizes virtual equipment clusters to simulate development environments,and establishes a“diagnosis-feedback-enhancement”closed loop through AI-based review,thereby effectively improving students’development efficiency and code reuse rate.A three-dimensional evaluation model integrating task outcomes,process performance,and innovation is constructed,incorporating indicators such as code standardization and an innovation index to strengthen the cultivation of engineering thinking and innovative ability.Furthermore,a data-driven support platform is built to generate student competency profiles,open up the“credit-competency-certification”pathway,promote the transformation of course achievements into contributions to the Huawei ecosystem,and significantly shorten the job adaptation cycle for graduates.The research results provide a replicable paradigm for the cultivation of domestic operating system talents. 展开更多
关键词 Interactive teaching model HarmonyOS development technology Building-block curriculum system Domestic software ecosystem
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Chinese Rural Women's Social Media Use: An Empirical Study Adopting the Technology Acceptance Model
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作者 Zhang Hui Mahadevan Krishnan 《Contemporary Social Sciences》 2026年第1期104-122,共19页
Given the growing importance of social media in digital rural development, this study systematically investigated the influence pathways of social media use among rural women in China, drawing on the Technology Accept... Given the growing importance of social media in digital rural development, this study systematically investigated the influence pathways of social media use among rural women in China, drawing on the Technology Acceptance Model(TAM). Employing quantitative research methods, the study conducted empirical tests based on 367 valid questionnaires using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS 4.0 software. Results indicate that significant associations exist between perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, attitudes toward use, behavioral intention, and actual usage behavior. Specifically, the study finds that rural women's perceived ease of use of social media has a significant and positive influence on both perceived usefulness and attitudes toward use. Perceived usefulness further significantly promotes attitudes toward use and behavioral intention. Moreover, positive attitudes toward usage and strong behavioral intentions were effectively converted into actual social media usage behaviors. This study not only validates the applicability and explanatory power of the TAM model in understanding the digital behavior of Chinese rural women but also provides quantitative evidence for how social media enhances their “digital visibility.” These findings offer practical insights for governments and platform providers to optimize user experiences and strengthen digital skills training. Despite its limitations, including a cross-sectional design and a regional sample, this research holds significant theoretical and practical implications. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese rural women social media technology Acceptance model(TAM) digital visibility
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基于STIRPAT模型的四川省碳排放峰值预测及情景分析
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作者 庞敏 丁一 唐维国 《环境污染与防治》 北大核心 2026年第2期10-15,共6页
基于四川省2005—2021年时间序列数据,构建STIRPAT扩展模型预测不同情景下四川省的碳排放峰值及碳达峰时间,采用岭回归方法综合分析人口、人均国内生产总值(GDP)、能源强度等7个指标对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:2005—2021年四川省碳... 基于四川省2005—2021年时间序列数据,构建STIRPAT扩展模型预测不同情景下四川省的碳排放峰值及碳达峰时间,采用岭回归方法综合分析人口、人均国内生产总值(GDP)、能源强度等7个指标对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:2005—2021年四川省碳排放量从20464.38万t增长至36903.16万t,年均增长率为3.75%;能源强度从1.16 t/万元(以标准煤计)下降至0.42 t/万元,年均降幅为6.15%;第二产业占比、城镇化水平、人均GDP对碳排放量有显著正向影响,3个指标每增加1.000%,碳排放量分别增加1.122%、0.489%、0.150%;对不同情景下四川省碳排放峰值进行预测,各情景均可在2030年前实现碳达峰,预计达峰时碳排放量为42203.96万t至46103.00万t。经过综合比选,基准情景和绿色低碳情景可作为四川省未来实现碳达峰的优选方案。 展开更多
关键词 四川省 stirpat模型 碳达峰 岭回归 情景分析法
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Research on the Application of Digital Modeling Technology in Nixing Pottery from the Perspective of Maker Education Theory 被引量:1
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作者 Jiaqing Lyu Xue Bai Zhi Liao 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第7期152-157,共6页
In the context of global digital transformation and the rising prominence of maker education,this study explores the innovative integration of digital modeling technologies with traditional Nixing Pottery craftsmanshi... In the context of global digital transformation and the rising prominence of maker education,this study explores the innovative integration of digital modeling technologies with traditional Nixing Pottery craftsmanship.By constructing a teaching framework under maker education theory,the research investigates how 3D modeling,CAD design,and 3D printing technologies can empower learners to address challenges in cultural heritage preservation and artistic innovation.Through experimental teaching and case analysis,the study verifies that this integrated approach significantly enhances learners’digital literacy,creative thinking,and cultural identity while optimizing Nixing Pottery’s production processes and design possibilities.The findings contribute to theoretical models of technology-enhanced craft education and provide practical pathways for the digital transformation of intangible cultural heritage. 展开更多
关键词 Maker education theory Digital modeling technology Nixing Pottery Educational innovation Cultural heritage digitization 3D printing Cross-disciplinary education Artisan revitalization
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基于STIRPAT模型的交通碳达峰预测
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作者 陈静媛 张啸天 +3 位作者 唐文群 张云彬 甘志强 李丹 《长春师范大学学报》 2026年第2期66-76,共11页
探索城市交通领域的碳减排路径对缓解气候变暖问题与推动城市可持续发展具有重要意义。以安徽省合肥市为研究对象,首先采用“自上而下”法测算2009—2023年合肥市交通碳排放量并分析其时空变化特征,然后运用STIRPAT模型探究其影响因素,... 探索城市交通领域的碳减排路径对缓解气候变暖问题与推动城市可持续发展具有重要意义。以安徽省合肥市为研究对象,首先采用“自上而下”法测算2009—2023年合肥市交通碳排放量并分析其时空变化特征,然后运用STIRPAT模型探究其影响因素,最后利用情景分析法预测碳达峰路径。结果表明,研究期内合肥市交通碳排放从338.64万吨增长至780.16万吨,年均增速逐步放缓,且交通运输业能源强度高于全市整体水平;人均GDP、公路货运量和人口规模是碳排放增长的主要因素,其中人均GDP贡献率达43.26%;通过情景分析得出,综合减排为最优路径,可使交通碳排放于2033年达峰,峰值约为777.15万吨,之后稳步下降。 展开更多
关键词 交通碳排放 stirpat模型 情景分析 碳达峰 影响因素
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Construction of School-Enterprise Community Education Model for Software Technology Specialty Driven by Information Technology Application Innovation Industry:Taking Shanwei Institute of Technology as an Example
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作者 Xiaorong Ye Zhirui Wu Yanzhao Liang 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第7期70-77,共8页
The software technology field is facing new talent demands brought by the Information Technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry.This paper takes Shanwei Institute of Technology as an example to deeply explore th... The software technology field is facing new talent demands brought by the Information Technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry.This paper takes Shanwei Institute of Technology as an example to deeply explore the construction of a school-enterprise community education model driven by the ITAI industry.It establishes the Kirin Workshop training base to facilitate talent cultivation,integrates the ITAI Application Adaptation Center to enhance technical capabilities,cooperates with Liqi Technology to establish an industrial college for government talent training,adjusts the professional curriculum system,and arranges for students to participate in ITAI vocational skills competitions.The school-enterprise collaborative cultivation mechanism meets the talent needs of the ITAI field,with effective practical results.This paper also points out the shortcomings of the school-enterprise collaborative education model in the ITAI industry and provides optimization methods to explore new paths for industry-education integration and serve the development of regional and national ITAI industries^([1]). 展开更多
关键词 Information technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry School-enterprise cooperation Education model Software technology specialty
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Research on the Optimization of Digital Technology-Based Higher Education Teaching Models
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作者 Yuanwei Zhao 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第6期100-105,共6页
With the advancement of digital technology,new technologies such as artificial intelligence,big data,and cloud computing have gradually permeated higher education,leading to fundamental changes in teaching and learnin... With the advancement of digital technology,new technologies such as artificial intelligence,big data,and cloud computing have gradually permeated higher education,leading to fundamental changes in teaching and learning methods.Therefore,in the process of reforming and developing higher education,it is essential to take digital technology empowering the optimization of the education industry as a breakthrough,focusing on five key areas:the construction of smart classrooms,the digital integration of teaching resources,the development of personalized learning support systems,the reform of online-offline hybrid teaching,and the intelligentization of educational management.This paper also examines the experiences,challenges,and shortcomings of typical universities in using digital technology to improve teaching quality,optimize resource allocation,and innovate teaching management models.Finally,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to facilitate the smooth implementation of digital transformation in higher education institutions. 展开更多
关键词 Digital technology Higher education Teaching model optimization Smart classroom Hybrid teaching
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Leveraging Green AI Technology to Build Sustainable Schools:A Conceptual Model Based on AI Agents
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作者 Yiting Qiu Yihan Lu +2 位作者 Guoqing Xia Md Munir Hayet Khan Deshinta Arrova Dewi 《Journal of Electronic Research and Application》 2025年第2期150-158,共9页
The integration of Green Artificial Intelligence(AI)technologies into educational systems offers a promising avenue to enhance operational efficiency while addressing sustainability challenges.Through a rigorous three... The integration of Green Artificial Intelligence(AI)technologies into educational systems offers a promising avenue to enhance operational efficiency while addressing sustainability challenges.Through a rigorous three-phase methodology combining literature review,AI agent development,and participatory workshop-based case analysis,this paper highlights the pivotal role of AI agents,as applications of Green AI technologies,in driving transformative outcomes within schools.By directly improving self-learning efficiency and reducing learning costs for students,enhancing management and service efficiency,reducing labor costs for schools,as well as minimizing resource dependence for both teachers and students,AI agents create a foundation for sustainable operations.These direct effects generate positive spillover effects,cascading into broader outcomes,including innovation performance,economic efficiency,and environmental sustainability,aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).By presenting a comprehensive conceptual model,this study demonstrates the pathways through which Green AI contributes to sustainable development in education and emphasizes its critical role in bridging technological innovation with sustainability.This framework provides significant theoretical insights for further empirical research while offering actionable strategies for policymakers and educators to harness Green AI for building sustainable schools with a student-centered approach. 展开更多
关键词 Green AI technology AI agents Conceptual model Spillover effects Sustainable development
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Systematic Literature Review of Technology Acceptance Models in Learning Management Systems(LMSs)
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作者 Rizki Ismail Hasibuan Iskandar Muda Sambas Ade Kesuma 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2025年第2期71-80,共10页
The integration of Learning Management Systems(LMSs)into educational settings is becoming increasingly common,especially in the digital field.Understanding the factors influencing the acceptance and effective use of L... The integration of Learning Management Systems(LMSs)into educational settings is becoming increasingly common,especially in the digital field.Understanding the factors influencing the acceptance and effective use of LMS is essential to ensure successful implementation.The Technology Acceptance Model(TAM)has been widely used to check user acceptance of various technologies,including LMS.This study conducted a systematic literature review(SLR)to analyze existing research on the application of TAM in the context of LMS.A comprehensive search of the academic database was conducted to identify relevant studies published in 2010-2025.The review synthesizes findings related to the core constructs of TAM—Perceived Usability,Perceived Ease of Use,Behavioral Intent,and Actual Use—as well as extended factors such as system quality,self-efficacy,and social influence.The results reveal circumstantial evidence supporting the predictive power of TAM in LMS adoption,while also highlighting emerging trends and gaps in the literature.This review contributes to a deeper understanding of user acceptance in a digital learning environment and provides recommendations for future research and practical LMS implementation strategies. 展开更多
关键词 technology Acceptance model E-Learning Management System systematic literature review
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基于阈值-STIRPAT模型的资源型城市人口与碳排放研究
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作者 王舒 王潜心 +1 位作者 曹芳洁 李旭 《河北省科学院学报》 2026年第1期25-32,共8页
揭示城市人口规模对碳排放的影响规律,是构建低碳城市的重要依据。由于不同类型城市人口规模与碳排放间关系差异较大,本研究以中国117个不同类型资源型城市为研究对象,利用2006—2022年人口、土地利用、二氧化碳排放等数据,采用地理加... 揭示城市人口规模对碳排放的影响规律,是构建低碳城市的重要依据。由于不同类型城市人口规模与碳排放间关系差异较大,本研究以中国117个不同类型资源型城市为研究对象,利用2006—2022年人口、土地利用、二氧化碳排放等数据,采用地理加权回归和阈值-STIRPAT模型,对上述城市人口规模与碳排放的时变规律及主导驱动因素进行了对比分析。结果表明:成长型和再生型城市人口规模与碳排放呈次线性关系,成熟型为线性,衰退型为超线性。不同类型资源型城市人口规模与碳排放间的阈值存在明显差异,再生型阈值最大、成熟型次之、成长型最小、衰退型不显著。此外,人均GDP、产业结构、单位GDP能耗对不同类型资源型城市碳排放的影响机理也存在显著差异。因此对每类资源型城市的低碳发展策略提出了针对性的政策建议与具体措施。 展开更多
关键词 资源型城市 碳排放 城市人口规模 地理加权回归 阈值-stirpat模型
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基于LMDI法和STIRPAT模型的贵州省道路交通业碳排放分析及预测
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作者 方宏萍 陈小草 +3 位作者 刘俊 宋彩霞 王洪飞 韦小焕 《环境科学研究》 北大核心 2026年第4期853-860,共8页
贵州省道路交通业作为贵州省经济发展的重要支撑行业,其是否能完成碳达峰碳中和目标关乎贵州省经济的未来发展趋势。采用行驶里程法对2013-2023年贵州省道路交通业碳排放量进行估算,基于LMDI模型对碳排放量的影响因素进行分解,并构建STI... 贵州省道路交通业作为贵州省经济发展的重要支撑行业,其是否能完成碳达峰碳中和目标关乎贵州省经济的未来发展趋势。采用行驶里程法对2013-2023年贵州省道路交通业碳排放量进行估算,基于LMDI模型对碳排放量的影响因素进行分解,并构建STIRPAT模型对2025-2050年的碳排放量进行预测。结果表明:①2013-2023年贵州省道路交通业碳排放量总体呈上升趋势。在不同车辆类型的碳排放情况中,微小型客车碳排放量最高,而大型客车的碳排放量占比最小。②根据LMDI模型影响因素分析,人口规模变动效应对碳排放量的累积贡献率为53%,其对贵州省道路交通业碳排放有强烈的促进作用,而经济发展规模对道路交通业碳排放促进作用的影响力度较弱。③采用STIRPAT模型进行碳排放量预测,根据政府对低碳政策执行和管理力度的不同设定低、中、高发展模式,对人口、GDP和能源消费的增长速率进行预测。在3种模式中,低发展模式下的碳排放量预测值最高。3种模式的预测量均能在2030-2035年实现碳达峰,在2047-2050年实现碳中和,与我国碳达峰碳中和目标基本吻合。研究显示,人口规模变动效应是贵州省道路交通业碳排放的主要驱动因素,未来贵州省道路交通业的碳排放量整体呈先升后降的趋势。 展开更多
关键词 贵州省道路交通业 行驶里程法 LMDI模型 stirpat模型 碳排放量预测
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基于STIRPAT-LEAP模型的陕西省增汇减排发展路径及驱动因素
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作者 李艳颖 蒋语聪 +2 位作者 李文 王顺平 张思雨 《环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第2期793-806,共14页
中国作为全球碳排放大国,其省市区域贡献了全国90%以上的碳排放量.如何准确预测不同省市区域的碳排放量并制定减排政策,是实现国家“双碳”目标以及经济高质量协同发展的基础.以位于中国西北地区的陕西省为例,利用2000~2021年相关截面数... 中国作为全球碳排放大国,其省市区域贡献了全国90%以上的碳排放量.如何准确预测不同省市区域的碳排放量并制定减排政策,是实现国家“双碳”目标以及经济高质量协同发展的基础.以位于中国西北地区的陕西省为例,利用2000~2021年相关截面数据,建立自上而下与自下而上集成的RR-STIRPAT-LEAP模型,并通过优化子模型权重提升预测准确性.在此基础上,预测2022~2060年陕西省碳排放量,结合碳汇吸收量模型设计5种联合情景仿真模拟陕西省“双碳”路径,并使用ReliefF算法分析碳减排重要潜力驱动因素.结果发现,RR-STIRPAT-LEAP-Shaanxi模型预测精度显著优于单一模型,优化后的模型误差为0.24%.预测陕西省2030年达峰,排放量(以CO_(2)计)为41909万t.在联合情景macro-control-EMT-F下陕西省在2060前实现碳中和,排放量为-2569万t,表明生态碳汇在实现碳中和过程中发挥重要作用.对比不同联合情景下的碳排放变化情况发现,能源结构升级和能效提升是陕西省低碳转型的关键驱动力,且实施宏观经济和部门能耗综合调控的策略可以减少更多的碳排放量.ReliefF中表明陕西省碳减排侧重产业部门排序依次为:工业>发电部门>农业>居民部门>运输仓储邮政业>建筑业>其他服务业.其中,农业不仅是重要的碳排放源,也是重要的碳汇,其减排潜力不可忽视.在综合分析短期和中长期碳排放路径以及碳减排驱动因素后,通过给出陕西省增汇减排协同发展路径图,可为政府决策者和相关企业制定低碳高质量经济发展规划提供科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰 碳中和 RR-stirpat-LEAP-Shaanxi模型 联合情景设置 ReliefF分析
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The evolution of China's green technology innovation cooperation network and the effect of carbon emission reduction
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作者 Sufan Gao Brian Fath +3 位作者 Feiyan Liang Saige Wang Zhiming Yang Xiuqian Chen 《Ecological Frontiers》 2026年第1期351-367,共17页
This study analyzes the evolution of China's green technology innovation cooperation network from 2011 to 2020,utilizing green patent application data.Employing a Spatial Durbin Model(SDM),we scrutinized the netwo... This study analyzes the evolution of China's green technology innovation cooperation network from 2011 to 2020,utilizing green patent application data.Employing a Spatial Durbin Model(SDM),we scrutinized the network's influence on urban carbon emissions,utilizing panel data encompassing 323 city nodes.Results show network expansion and a shift in central nodes from eastern coastal areas to interior cities,with Beijing,Shenzhen,Nanjing,and Shanghai consistently acting as key innovation hubs.A core-periphery structure emerged,clustering cities into high-and low-cooperation clusters.Core cities,particularly Beijing,which gain informational advantages by bridging non-overlapping nodes and exhibit distinct characteristics in terms of the structural hole indexes,reflecting their multifaceted roles within the network.SDM analysis indicates that the green technology innovation cooperation network has a significant positive impact on urban carbon reduction efforts.Specifically,degree centrality,closeness centrality,effective size,efficiency,and hierarchy of node cities exhibit a negative correlation with carbon emissions,suggesting that higher centrality and efficiency within the network correlate with lower emissions.Conversely,betweenness centrality and constraint have a positive impact on emissions,indicating that cities that act as bridges in the network may paradoxically contribute to higher emissions.Moreover,the network's influence on carbon emissions is nuanced across different green technology sectors.Cooperation in areas such as waste management,alternative energy production,energy conservation,agriculture and forestry,and transportation is found to have a more substantial impact on carbon reduction than cooperation in nuclear power,and administrative,regulatory,and design fields. 展开更多
关键词 Green technology innovation cooperation network Carbon emissions Social network analysis Spatial Durbin model
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Advanced Meta-Heuristic Optimization for Accurate Photovoltaic Model Parameterization:A High-Accuracy Estimation Using Spider Wasp Optimization
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作者 Sarah M.Alhammad Diaa Salama AbdElminaam +1 位作者 Asmaa Rizk Ibrahim Ahmed Taha 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2026年第3期2269-2303,共35页
Accurate parameter extraction of photovoltaic(PV)models plays a critical role in enabling precise performance prediction,optimal system sizing,and effective operational control under diverse environmental conditions.W... Accurate parameter extraction of photovoltaic(PV)models plays a critical role in enabling precise performance prediction,optimal system sizing,and effective operational control under diverse environmental conditions.While a wide range of metaheuristic optimisation techniques have been applied to this problem,many existing methods are hindered by slow convergence rates,susceptibility to premature stagnation,and reduced accuracy when applied to complex multi-diode PV configurations.These limitations can lead to suboptimal modelling,reducing the efficiency of PV system design and operation.In this work,we propose an enhanced hybrid optimisation approach,the modified Spider Wasp Optimization(mSWO)with Opposition-Based Learning algorithm,which integrates the exploration and exploitation capabilities of the Spider Wasp Optimization(SWO)metaheuristic with the diversityenhancing mechanism of Opposition-Based Learning(OBL).The hybridisation is designed to dynamically expand the search space coverage,avoid premature convergence,and improve both convergence speed and precision in highdimensional optimisation tasks.The mSWO algorithm is applied to three well-established PV configurations:the single diode model(SDM),the double diode model(DDM),and the triple diode model(TDM).Real experimental current-voltage(I-V)datasets from a commercial PV module under standard test conditions(STC)are used for evaluation.Comparative analysis is conducted against eighteen advanced metaheuristic algorithms,including BSDE,RLGBO,GWOCS,MFO,EO,TSA,and SCA.Performance metrics include minimum,mean,and maximum root mean square error(RMSE),standard deviation(SD),and convergence behaviour over 30 independent runs.The results reveal that mSWO consistently delivers superior accuracy and robustness across all PV models,achieving the lowest RMSE values of 0.000986022(SDM),0.000982884(DDM),and 0.000982529(TDM),with minimal SD values,indicating remarkable repeatability.Convergence analyses further show that mSWO reaches optimal solutions more rapidly and with fewer oscillations than all competing methods,with the performance gap widening as model complexity increases.These findings demonstrate that mSWO provides a scalable,computationally efficient,and highly reliable framework for PV parameter extraction.Its adaptability to models of growing complexity suggests strong potential for broader applications in renewable energy systems,including performance monitoring,fault detection,and intelligent control,thereby contributing to the optimisation of next-generation solar energy solutions. 展开更多
关键词 modified Spider Wasp Optimizer(mSWO) photovoltaic(PV)modeling meta-heuristic optimization solar energy parameter estimation renewable energy technologies
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中国农村食物消费水足迹预测模拟研究——基于拓展的STIRPAT与GA-LSTM模型
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作者 李梓瑜 马诗涵 陈其勇 《资源与产业》 2026年第1期80-91,共12页
乡村振兴战略纵深推进的过程中水资源短缺风险日益加剧,厘清中国农村居民食物消费水足迹的时序演变特征及驱动效应对于开展针对性节水措施具有重要意义。论文构建扩展的STIRPAT模型、岭回归模型、GA-LSTM模型与情景分析法,对中国农村食... 乡村振兴战略纵深推进的过程中水资源短缺风险日益加剧,厘清中国农村居民食物消费水足迹的时序演变特征及驱动效应对于开展针对性节水措施具有重要意义。论文构建扩展的STIRPAT模型、岭回归模型、GA-LSTM模型与情景分析法,对中国农村食物消费水足迹的演变趋势与影响因素进行系统分析与多情景预测。研究结果表明:1)2008—2022年,中国农村粮食消费总量整体呈下降趋势,但多类食品的人均消费量持续上升,反映出饮食结构日益多元化;2)驱动效应方面,农村人口规模与人均水足迹呈负相关关系,而城镇化水平、人均可支配收入等因素则对水足迹具有显著的正向影响,尤其是人均食物消费量的推动作用最为显著;3)情景预测结果显示,在基准情景下人均食物消费水足迹将快速增长,预计到2035年达到750 m^(3)/人;而在控制情景下增长趋势趋缓,预计在2035年前后达到峰值。基于以上研究结论提出以下建议:1)引导农村居民优化饮食结构,降低人均食物消费水足迹;2)通过“光盘行动”宣传教育,减少食物浪费;3)加大农村节水技术的研发,提高水资源利用率。 展开更多
关键词 乡村振兴 水足迹 stirpat GA-LSTM 情景预测
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Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model 被引量:7
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作者 李佳秀 陈亚宁 +1 位作者 李稚 刘志辉 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第7期1001-1019,共19页
Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO2 emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI meth... Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO2 emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO_2 emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO2 emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO2 emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO2 emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO2 emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO2 emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused –110.90 Mt CO2 emissions with a contribution rate of –43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in –18.76 Mt CO2 emissions with a contribution rate of –7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO2 emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO_2 emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively. 展开更多
关键词 quantitative analysis energy-related C02 emissions stirpat model Kazakhstan
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数字技术视角下中国制造业碳排放的驱动因素与趋势研究——基于随机森林与STIRPAT模型的综合分析
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作者 李娟伟 冉临璇 《开发研究》 2025年第2期62-75,共14页
为了探究数字技术等因素对制造业碳排放的影响,综合利用随机森林与STIRPAT模型,选取我国2008—2021年省际面板数据,对比考察数字技术相关因素与经济发展、人口等传统因素对制造业碳排放影响的差异,并根据不同情景对省际制造业碳排放的... 为了探究数字技术等因素对制造业碳排放的影响,综合利用随机森林与STIRPAT模型,选取我国2008—2021年省际面板数据,对比考察数字技术相关因素与经济发展、人口等传统因素对制造业碳排放影响的差异,并根据不同情景对省际制造业碳排放的趋势进行预测和分析。研究结果显示,与经济发展、城镇化率等传统因素加剧制造业碳排放规模的作用相反,数字技术及其紧密相关的制造业集聚、能源强度、制造业结构以及研发投入等因素不但对降低制造业碳排放有着积极且重要的影响,还存在鲜明的非线性特征。对比不同政策情景,如果能够加强对经济发展、人口等传统因素的调控,在数字技术及其相关因素驱动下,未来我国制造业碳排放规模与无约束条件下的潜在水平相比,总体下降幅度将超过70%,而且制造业产出规模相对较小或者制造业产值规模较大且以传统产业为主的省(区、市),数字技术及其相关因素的碳减排效应将更加明显。因此,各地政府应该加大对数字技术研发和推广的投入力度,促进制造业的能源效率及其结构优化升级,为地方政府落实碳减排目标提供有利条件。 展开更多
关键词 制造业 碳减排 随机森林模型 stirpat模型 数字技术
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基于STIRPAT模型下城市人口密度对碳排放影响的实证分析
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作者 李钰 吕会影 《山西师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第2期95-102,共8页
文章基于STIRPAT模型构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了城市人口密度对人均碳排放量的影响,并对碳排放量最优的城市人口密度进行测算.结果表明,中国城市人口密度和人均碳排放量呈“U”形关系.在城市人口密度变化中,经济水平、碳排放技术... 文章基于STIRPAT模型构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了城市人口密度对人均碳排放量的影响,并对碳排放量最优的城市人口密度进行测算.结果表明,中国城市人口密度和人均碳排放量呈“U”形关系.在城市人口密度变化中,经济水平、碳排放技术水平、第二产业占比对城市绿地面积都对碳排放具有正影响,第三产业占比和公共交通对碳排放具有负影响.城市建成区面积应随着人口数量的增长稳步扩张,以保证经济增长和低碳环保的和谐发展.进而提出政策建议:城市规模合理扩张,推进产业转型升级,促进能源结构转变,提高低碳环保意识. 展开更多
关键词 城市化 人口密度 碳排放 stirpat模型
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基于STIRPAT模型的海岸带生态韧性影响因素研究——以深圳市为例 被引量:11
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作者 祁小丽 栾博 +2 位作者 周文君 罗珈柠 俞露 《中国环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期416-429,共14页
本研究以深圳市为案例,建立海岸带生态韧性评估框架,开展了海岸带生态韧性分区评价,运用了STIRPAT模型对影响海岸带生态韧性的社会经济因素进行量化分析并识别关键影响因素及影响程度,提出了海岸带保护修复建议.结果表明,2021年深圳市... 本研究以深圳市为案例,建立海岸带生态韧性评估框架,开展了海岸带生态韧性分区评价,运用了STIRPAT模型对影响海岸带生态韧性的社会经济因素进行量化分析并识别关键影响因素及影响程度,提出了海岸带保护修复建议.结果表明,2021年深圳市海岸带生态韧性综合评价得分在8.97~92.12之间,具有明显的东西部空间分异特征,东部海岸带生态韧性较高而西部较低,海岸带生态韧性水平与本底地理特征、城市开发程度具有密切关联.区域富裕度是影响深圳市海岸带生态韧性的主要负面因素,填海面积、环境污染、人口密度等因素对海岸带生态韧性也具有负面的影响;万元GDP水耗的降低对海岸带生态韧性有正向影响,表明技术创新和高质量经济发展会促进海岸带生态韧性提升.本研究成果可为高密度城市海岸带生态韧性研究提供新方法,为海岸带管理提供科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 海岸带生态韧性 空间分异 stirpat模型 影响因素 深圳
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Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model 被引量:3
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作者 Andewi Rokhmawati Vita Sarasi Lailan Tawila Berampu 《Geography and Sustainability》 CSCD 2024年第4期577-587,共11页
This study aims to develop a system dynamic(SD)forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax on carbon emissions,estimate future carbon emissions under ten ... This study aims to develop a system dynamic(SD)forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax on carbon emissions,estimate future carbon emissions under ten scenarios,without and with the carbon tax,and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)to predict Indonesia’s carbon emission peak.Carbon emission drivers in this study are decomposed into several factors,namely energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,GDP per capita,population,and fixed-asset investment.This study included nuclear power utilization starting in 2038.The research gaps addressed by this study compared to previous research are(1)use of the ex-ante approach,(2)inclusion of nuclear power plants,(3)testing the EKC hypothesis,and(4)contribution to government policy.The simulation results show that under the carbon tax,carbon emissions can be reduced by improving renewable energy structures,adjusting industrial structures to green businesses,and emphasizing fixed asset investment more environmentally friendly.Moreover,the result approved the EKC hypothesis.It shows an inverse U-shaped curve between GDP per capita and CO_(2)emissions in Indonesia.Indonesia’s fastest carbon emission peak is under scenario seven and is expected in 2040.Although an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax and nuclear power will take decades to reduce carbon emissions,the carbon tax can still be a reference and has advantages to implement.This result can be a good beginning step for Indonesia,which has yet to gain experience with a carbon tax that can be implemented immediately and is helpful to decision-makers in putting into practice sensible measures to attain Indonesia’s carbon emission peaking.This research provides actionable insights internationally on carbon tax policies,nuclear energy adoption,EKC dynamics,global policy implications,and fostering international cooperation for carbon emission reductions. 展开更多
关键词 Carbon emissions Carbon tax System dynamics Environmental Kuznets curve stirpat model
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