摘要
乡村振兴战略纵深推进的过程中水资源短缺风险日益加剧,厘清中国农村居民食物消费水足迹的时序演变特征及驱动效应对于开展针对性节水措施具有重要意义。论文构建扩展的STIRPAT模型、岭回归模型、GA-LSTM模型与情景分析法,对中国农村食物消费水足迹的演变趋势与影响因素进行系统分析与多情景预测。研究结果表明:1)2008—2022年,中国农村粮食消费总量整体呈下降趋势,但多类食品的人均消费量持续上升,反映出饮食结构日益多元化;2)驱动效应方面,农村人口规模与人均水足迹呈负相关关系,而城镇化水平、人均可支配收入等因素则对水足迹具有显著的正向影响,尤其是人均食物消费量的推动作用最为显著;3)情景预测结果显示,在基准情景下人均食物消费水足迹将快速增长,预计到2035年达到750 m^(3)/人;而在控制情景下增长趋势趋缓,预计在2035年前后达到峰值。基于以上研究结论提出以下建议:1)引导农村居民优化饮食结构,降低人均食物消费水足迹;2)通过“光盘行动”宣传教育,减少食物浪费;3)加大农村节水技术的研发,提高水资源利用率。
Advancement of rural revival strategy leads to a water resource shortage,it is meaningful to clarify the spatio-temporal evolution and drives of water footprint of China's rural food consumption for the purpose of saving water.This paper uses extended STIRPAT model,ridge regression model,GA-LSTM model and scenario method to study the evolution and factors of water footprint of China's rural food consumption with prediction under multiple scenarios.During 2008 to 2022,China's gross rural food consumption shows a declining trend,but rising on some categories per capita,suggesting a diversified food structures.Water footprint per capita is negatively related to rural population scale,but positively to urbanization and usable income per capita,especially most to food consumption per capita.Scenario prediction reveals that water footprint of food consumption per capita will be fast growing under the benchmark scenario,up to 750 m 3 per person in 2035,and will be peaking in 2035 under the controlled scenario at a slowly rising trend.
作者
李梓瑜
马诗涵
陈其勇
LI Ziyu;MA Shihan;CHEN Qiyong(School of Business,Hohai University,Changzhou 213200,China;School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Changzhou 213200,China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2026年第1期80-91,共12页
Resources & Industries
