摘要
为了探究数字技术等因素对制造业碳排放的影响,综合利用随机森林与STIRPAT模型,选取我国2008—2021年省际面板数据,对比考察数字技术相关因素与经济发展、人口等传统因素对制造业碳排放影响的差异,并根据不同情景对省际制造业碳排放的趋势进行预测和分析。研究结果显示,与经济发展、城镇化率等传统因素加剧制造业碳排放规模的作用相反,数字技术及其紧密相关的制造业集聚、能源强度、制造业结构以及研发投入等因素不但对降低制造业碳排放有着积极且重要的影响,还存在鲜明的非线性特征。对比不同政策情景,如果能够加强对经济发展、人口等传统因素的调控,在数字技术及其相关因素驱动下,未来我国制造业碳排放规模与无约束条件下的潜在水平相比,总体下降幅度将超过70%,而且制造业产出规模相对较小或者制造业产值规模较大且以传统产业为主的省(区、市),数字技术及其相关因素的碳减排效应将更加明显。因此,各地政府应该加大对数字技术研发和推广的投入力度,促进制造业的能源效率及其结构优化升级,为地方政府落实碳减排目标提供有利条件。
To explore the impact of digital technology and other factors on carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry,this study utilizes the Random Forest and STIRPAT models,selecting provincial panel data in China from 2008 to 2021.It compares and examines the differences in the impact of digital technology-related factors and traditional factors such as economic development and population on carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry.Additionally,it forecasts and analyzes the trends of provincial manufacturing carbon emissions under different scenario settings.The results reveal as follows:firstly,in contrast to the role of traditional factors like economic development and urbanization that exacerbate the scale of carbon emissions in manufacturing,factors closely related to digital technology,such as manufacturing agglomeration,energy intensity,manufacturing structure,and investment in research and development(R&D),have a positive,significant impact on reducing carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry and exhibit distinct non-linear characteristics.Secondly,with different policy constraint scenarios,if the regulation of traditional factors like economic development and population can be strengthened,driven by digital technology and its related factors,the overall scale of carbon emissions in China’s manufacturing industry is expected to decrease by more than 70%,compared to potential levels under unconstrained conditions.Moreover,in provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)where the manufacturing output scale is relatively small or the manufacturing value is large and dominated by traditional industries,the carbon emission reduction effects of digital technology and its related factors will be more effective.Therefore,local governments should increase investment in digital technology R&D and promotion,and promote the energy efficiency of manufacturing and its structural optimization and upgrading,to provide favorable conditions for local governments to implement carbon emission reduction targets.
作者
李娟伟
冉临璇
LI Juanwei;RAN Linxuan(International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)
出处
《开发研究》
2025年第2期62-75,共14页
Research On Development
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘双碳’目标下数字技术驱动制造业绿色发展的机制与路径研究”(22BJL044)
西安市社会科学基金一般项目“数字技术与西安市城市营商环境的协同互动机制及优化路径研究”(25JX30)
中央高校基本科研业务费一般项目“文化属性视域下汉语语言影响营商环境的机制研究”(23ZYYB006)
关键词
制造业
碳减排
随机森林模型
STIRPAT模型
数字技术
manufacturing industry
carbon emission reduction
random forest model
STIRPAT model
digital technology
