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Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model 被引量:4
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作者 CHEN Jiazhen KASIMU Alimujiang +3 位作者 REHEMAN Rukeya WEI Bohao HAN Fuqiang ZHANG Yan 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第6期852-874,共23页
To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research ... To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management. 展开更多
关键词 PLUS model invest model Bosten Lake Basin water yield water conservation land-use simulation Geodetector
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Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model
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作者 ZHENG Guoqiang Li Cunxiu +3 位作者 LI Runjie LUO Jing FAN Chunxia ZHU Hailing 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第9期1183-1196,共14页
Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the... Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.To comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study area.The results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and heterogeneity.The average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.90.Based on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality level.The lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley.From 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag County.To show the extent of habitat quality variation,we calculated Sen index.The results showed that the higher habitat quality area had a decrease trending,while other categories had an increasing tendency,and the decreasing was faster than increasing.The research results provide scientific guidance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin. 展开更多
关键词 invest model landscape pattern index habitat quality largest patch index landscape shape index Shannon evenness index
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Application of the InVEST model for assessing water yield and its response to precipitation and land use in the Weihe River Basin, China 被引量:10
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作者 WU Changxue QIU Dexun +2 位作者 GAO Peng MU Xingmin ZHAO Guangju 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第4期426-440,共15页
With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many e... With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB. 展开更多
关键词 water yield invest model Weihe River Basin Geoda model scenario analysis
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Habitat quality assessment of mining cities based on InVEST model—a case study of Yanshan County,Jiangxi Province 被引量:5
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作者 Yanan Li Linghua Duo +2 位作者 Ming Zhang Jingyuan Yang Xiaofei Guo 《International Journal of Coal Science & Technology》 EI CAS CSCD 2022年第2期245-254,共10页
The assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes can provide a scientifc basis for the ecological protection and green development of mining cities.Taking Yanshan County as ... The assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes can provide a scientifc basis for the ecological protection and green development of mining cities.Taking Yanshan County as an example of a typical mining city,this article discussed the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of habitat quality in 2000 and 2018 based on the ArcGIS platform and the InVEST model.The conclusions are as below:from 2000 to 2018,the area of farmland and construction land changed the most in the study area.Among them,the area of farmland decreased by 3.48%,and the area of industrial and mining land and construction land increased by 53.25%.Areas of low,relatively low and high habitat quality expanded,and areas of medium and relatively high habitat quality shrank,which is closely related to the distribution of land use.The areas with high habitat degradation degrees appear around cities,mining areas and watersheds,while the areas with low habitat degradation degrees are mainly distributed in the southern woodland.The distribution of cold and hot spots in the habitat quality distribution of Yanshan County presents a pattern of“hot in the south and cold in the north”.The results are of great signifcance to the precise implementation of ecosystem management decisions in mining cities and the creation of a landscape pattern of“beautiful countrysides,green cities,and green mines”. 展开更多
关键词 invest model Habitat quality Land use change Temporal and spatial pattern Mining city
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Study on the Change of Eco-Environmental Quality in Jiufeng Mountain Area Based on InVEST Model
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作者 Xiping Li Weixian Li +3 位作者 Ce Gao Luying Shao Guoqing Chen Shaifei Wang 《Open Journal of Ecology》 2022年第1期36-50,共15页
Habitat is not only an important place for animals and plants to inhabit and reproduce, but also the basis of human survival and development. With the large-scale development of mineral resources, land use types have ... Habitat is not only an important place for animals and plants to inhabit and reproduce, but also the basis of human survival and development. With the large-scale development of mineral resources, land use types have changed sharply, fragile habitats tend to collapse, and the future sustainable development has lost a stable carrier. Habitat quality is a comprehensive expression of the interaction of many factors such as land, biology and water resources for many years. Natural factors are the most direct factors affecting habitat quality, and human activities are the most intense factors. The habitat module of invest model was used to evaluate the changes and temporal and spatial characteristics of habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain from 1990 to 2018. It is found that the habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain area shows a downward trend, and the ecological environment is very fragile. The high value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in mountainous and hilly areas with high vegetation coverage;The low value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in industrial and mining land and gully areas. With the development of society and economy and the development of mining industry in Jiufengshan area, the area of construction land is also increasing. 展开更多
关键词 Habitat Quality Land Use Change invest model Jiufengshan Area
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Analysis of Dynamic Changes in Habitat Quality Based on InVEST Models:A Case Study of Pu er City,Yunnan Province
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作者 Qinfang ZHOU Yang YE +1 位作者 Pin MA Xi SHEN 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2021年第1期79-86,共8页
Based on the data of land use status in 2009-2018 in the annual change survey results of Pu er City,Yunnan Province,China,the habitat quality in the city were studied by using InVEST models.The results show that the a... Based on the data of land use status in 2009-2018 in the annual change survey results of Pu er City,Yunnan Province,China,the habitat quality in the city were studied by using InVEST models.The results show that the area of cultivated land,construction land,and unused land in Pu er City continuously increased from 2009 to 2018.The growth rate of cultivated land and construction land in the next three years was significantly higher than that in the previous three years,while the area of gardens,grassland and woodland continuously decreased.From 2009 to 2018,the habitat quality in Pu er City showed a downward trend,that is,there was a clear increase in the proportion of moderate and poor habitat quality and a decrease in the proportion of superior and good habitat quality.Changes in habitat quality calculated by InVEST models can be used as a grasp of regional ecological environment in the investigation before the audit of natural resource assets and breakthroughs in finding clues of problems,thereby improving the scientificity and efficiency of audit work of natural resource assets. 展开更多
关键词 Habitat quality invest model Audit of natural resources assets GIS
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Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model 被引量:3
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作者 CAO Yijie MA Yonggang +2 位作者 BAO Anming CHANG Cun LIU Tie 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第12期1455-1473,共19页
The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the w... The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD. 展开更多
关键词 water conservation function water yield Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(invest)model climate change land use/land cover change(LUCC) Ili River Delta Lake Balkhash
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Study on the investment and construction models and value assessment of shared energy storage in the context of the new power system
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作者 Yuanying Chi Zihang Jin +3 位作者 Xufeng Zhang Yanzhao Zhang Yuxi Wu Junqi Wang 《Global Energy Interconnection》 2025年第4期700-718,共19页
New energy-storage systems play a pivotal role in the development of the new power system for advancing the energy transition in China.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”for the New Energy-Storage Development,it is proposed... New energy-storage systems play a pivotal role in the development of the new power system for advancing the energy transition in China.In the“14th Five-Year Plan”for the New Energy-Storage Development,it is proposed to expand investment and construction models by promoting the deployment of energy-storage facilities through the ways of self-construction,leasing,and purchasing,and to encourage the development of the shared energy-storage.However,the current scarcity in the model of the shared energy-storage invest-ment and construction substantially restricts its development,particularly due to unclear mechanisms for cost and benefit allocation,which also discourages potential investors.To address the issue,this paper proposes investment and construction models for shared energy-storage that aligns with the present stage of energy storage development.In specific,three main models are introduced:(1)Cen-tralized Self-built Shared Energy-Storage model(CSSES),(2)Third-party Investment Shared Energy-Storage model(TISES),and(3)Distributed Self-built Shared Energy Storage(DSSES)model.The cost–benefit analysis is conducted for each model.The results indicate that the CSSES model achieves the highest internal rate of return(11.5%)and the shortest payback period,while the DSSES model per-forms acceptable with an IRR of 9.4%.In contrast,the TISES model shows the lowest IRR(6.7%)and requires higher electricity price for being feasible.Furthermore,the study employs the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)for indicator eval-uation,and integrates the technique for order preference by the similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)for scheme optimization.The results show that both the CSSES model and the DSSES model achieve the highest proximity scores.Under environmental regulations,these models demonstrate superior economic benefits by optimizing energy storage utilization,reducing user costs,and enhancing overall profitability. 展开更多
关键词 Shared energy-storage investment and construction model AHP Entropy weight method
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基于InVEST-PLUS耦合模型的合肥市生境质量评价及模拟预测 被引量:5
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作者 张晓瑞 郭龙坤 王振波 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第6期3772-3783,共12页
分析城市土地利用和生境质量的时空演变特征,对于城市生态环境可持续发展具有重要意义.基于2012年、2017年和2022年合肥市土地利用数据,应用PLUS模型进行用地扩张因子驱动研究及2032年土地利用模拟预测,并结合InVEST模型分析合肥市生境... 分析城市土地利用和生境质量的时空演变特征,对于城市生态环境可持续发展具有重要意义.基于2012年、2017年和2022年合肥市土地利用数据,应用PLUS模型进行用地扩张因子驱动研究及2032年土地利用模拟预测,并结合InVEST模型分析合肥市生境质量时空演变特征.结果表明:①合肥市土地利用类型主要包括耕地、建设用地、林地和水体,耕地面积最大;2012~2022年内建设用地面积增加,其余地类面积均减少;预测2032年土地利用变化趋势同2012~2022年基本一致,且都为耕地向建设用地转变.②高程是影响耕地、林地和水体扩张的主要因子,建设用地扩张主要受到社会经济因素影响,草地及未利用地扩张受坡度影响最大.③2012~2022年生境质量持续下降,整体水平偏低,高、较高、中等和较低生境质量区域均减少,低生境质量区域增加,预测2032年生境质量仍呈下降趋势.④2012~2022年耕地转为水体和林地是生境质量正向改善的主要原因,耕地转为建设用地是生境质量下降的主要原因,预测2032年耕地及林地转为建设用地将进一步对生境质量产生负面影响.未来发展可从开发建设活动控制和生态保护两方面入手.研究结果可为合肥市生态环境保护与城市发展建设提供科学的决策依据. 展开更多
关键词 invest模型 PLUS模型 生境质量 评价 预测
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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的长三角城市群碳储量时空演变与预测 被引量:7
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作者 王伟武 伏添乐 陈欢 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第4期1937-1950,共14页
土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素,研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系对优化区域土地利用结构,维持区域碳平衡并提高区域碳储量具有重要意义.在“双碳”目标和区域一体化高质量发展的双重背景之下,长三角地区作为中... 土地利用变化是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素,研究土地利用变化与碳储量之间关系对优化区域土地利用结构,维持区域碳平衡并提高区域碳储量具有重要意义.在“双碳”目标和区域一体化高质量发展的双重背景之下,长三角地区作为中国式现代化建设高地有着重要的战略地位.因此,以长三角城市群为例,基于PLUS模型分析2000~2020年土地利用变化,结合自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景设置,对2030年长三角城市群土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并进一步运用InVEST模型测算2000~2020年及2030年不同情景下长三角城市群碳储量变化.最后,利用空间自相关分析探索长三角城市群不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化特征并提出相应建议.结果表明:①2000~2020年长三角城市群的碳储量损失了51.08×10^(6) t.耕地面积的减少(7.82%)以及建设用地面积的增加(7.56%)是碳损耗的主要原因.②2030年长三角城市群陆地生态系统碳储量在自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态优先情景下的碳储量分别为2.65×10^(9)、2.67×10^(9)和2.70×10^(9) t.与2020年碳储量值相比,3种情景下的碳储量值均有不同程度下降.③局部空间自相关分析结果显示,3种情景下的碳储量空间分布具相似性,高值区域在长三角城市群南部及西部区域出现集聚,低值区域则在东部、中部区域聚集.研究结果可为长三角城市群未来实现“碳达峰,碳中和”目标提供科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 invest模型 PLUS模型 长三角城市群
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基于InVEST模型的连云港市赣榆区生态系统服务功能评价 被引量:1
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作者 赵立鸿 马丹华 +2 位作者 王珅 王晓辉 屈帅 《环境监控与预警》 2025年第1期79-87,共9页
为更好地协调生态保护与社会经济发展的关系,科学评估区域生态系统服务功能及其重要性显得尤为重要。以连云港市赣榆区为研究对象,采用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型,从固碳释氧、水质净化、生物多样性和水资源供给4项服务... 为更好地协调生态保护与社会经济发展的关系,科学评估区域生态系统服务功能及其重要性显得尤为重要。以连云港市赣榆区为研究对象,采用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型,从固碳释氧、水质净化、生物多样性和水资源供给4项服务进行生态功能重要性评价分区,定量识别该区重要生态功能区。评价结果表明,赣榆区重要生态功能区总面积为383.06 km^(2),占全区总面积的25.93%;其中,Ⅰ级重要生态功能区面积为8.24 km^(2),Ⅱ级重要生态功能区面积为82.13 km^(2),Ⅲ级重要生态功能区面积为292.69 km^(2),初步构建了赣榆区生态安全格局,以促进本区生态系统保护与社会经济发展相协调。在此基础上,结合赣榆区农业发展现状,对三级重要生态功能区保护及全区农业开发利用提出了相应建议,为赣榆区优化国土空间格局、推进生态文明建设提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 生态系统服务功能 invest模型 评价 农业开发利用 连云港
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依托InVEST模型的祁连山国家公园生态系统服务功能评估探究 被引量:2
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作者 段翠清 《黑龙江环境通报》 2025年第4期13-15,共3页
祁连山国家公园地处高寒地区,其环境保护和资源管理面临诸多挑战。本研究基于InVEST模型评估了该公园的生境质量、碳储量、土壤保持量和产水量等生态系统服务功能,旨在为该地区的生态保护和资源管理决策提供科学依据。
关键词 invest模型 祁连山国家公园 生态系统 服务功能 评估
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基于FLUS-InVEST模型的石羊河流域水土资源空间匹配评价
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作者 侯慧敏 王辉 +1 位作者 王鹏全 曹进军 《长江科学院院报》 北大核心 2025年第7期42-51,共10页
探究未来不同情景土地利用变化下农业水土资源空间分布及匹配状况,为流域尺度农业可持续发展规划和决策提供支持。利用FLUS模型预测不同情景下2035年石羊河流域土地利用空间格局变化,采用InVEST模型模拟产水量,评价石羊河流域农业水土... 探究未来不同情景土地利用变化下农业水土资源空间分布及匹配状况,为流域尺度农业可持续发展规划和决策提供支持。利用FLUS模型预测不同情景下2035年石羊河流域土地利用空间格局变化,采用InVEST模型模拟产水量,评价石羊河流域农业水土资源时空匹配关系。结果表明:石羊河流域水土资源匹配格局整体呈现出西部优于东部,基尼系数介于0.2~0.3之间,未来表现出略微上升趋势,但仍处于比较均衡状态。石羊河流域2035年不同情景下平均水土资源匹配系数为797 m^(3)/hm^(2),2020年水土资源匹配系数为640 m^(3)/hm^(2),整体趋势向好。研究成果可为石羊河流域农业水土资源均衡管理提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 水土资源匹配 FLUS模型 invest模型 基尼系数 石羊河流域
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1980—2035年黄河流域土地利用和碳储量时空格局演化分析——基于FLUS-InVEST模型
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作者 王文娟 赵振坤 赵东方 《生态经济》 北大核心 2025年第8期201-210,共10页
研究黄河流域土地利用和碳储量变化及其关系,对土地合理利用、碳排放减少和碳汇优化管理具有重要意义。论文基于1980—2020年黄河流域土地利用数据,采用FLUS-InVEST模型分析了1980—2035年土地利用与碳储量变化及其关系。结果表明:(1)1... 研究黄河流域土地利用和碳储量变化及其关系,对土地合理利用、碳排放减少和碳汇优化管理具有重要意义。论文基于1980—2020年黄河流域土地利用数据,采用FLUS-InVEST模型分析了1980—2035年土地利用与碳储量变化及其关系。结果表明:(1)1980—2020年,黄河流域经历了显著的土地利用转型,耕地和未利用地减少,林地、草地、水域和建设用地扩张。2035年,自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景下,草地面积均增加,未利用地面积减少。(2)1980—2020年,碳储量减少0.07亿吨,2035年自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景下,碳储量分别增加0.67亿吨、1.16亿吨和1.15亿吨,其中耕地保护情景下碳储量增加最多。(3)除青海和内蒙古外,其他省区碳储量保持稳定。(4)草地面积增加是碳储量提升的主要因素,耕地向建设用地的转化会导致碳储量减少。研究表明,黄河流域土地利用规划应重视耕地资源保护,尤其是耕地保护对碳储量的积极作用。论文探讨了黄河流域土地利用与碳储量的关系,为实现碳中和目标提供了科学依据与指导。 展开更多
关键词 黄河流域 土地利用变化 碳储量 FLUS模型 invest模型 多情景模拟
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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的咸阳市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测
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作者 陈秋计 谢米米 +1 位作者 南丹丹 罗豪 《自然资源遥感》 北大核心 2025年第5期172-182,共11页
土地利用变化是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,研究土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,对优化国土空间规划和减少区域碳排放具有重要意义。以咸阳市为研究对象,基于2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据,结合PLUS模型和InVEST模型,分... 土地利用变化是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,研究土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,对优化国土空间规划和减少区域碳排放具有重要意义。以咸阳市为研究对象,基于2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据,结合PLUS模型和InVEST模型,分析咸阳市近20 a来土地利用和碳储量的变化特征,并预测2030年自然增长、城镇发展、耕地保护和生态保护情景下碳储量的分布情况,结果表明:①2000年、2010年和2020年咸阳市碳储量分别为10047.534×104 t,10120.754×104 t和10030.210×104 t,呈现先增后减的变化趋势,其中草地转为林地和耕地转为建设用地分别是引起碳储量增加和减少的主要原因;②碳储量高值区多集中在咸阳市北部,碳储量低值区则分布在咸阳市南部的经济中心;③2030年4种发展情景中,耕地保护和生态保护情景的碳储量有所上升,城镇发展情景由于建设用地快速扩张,碳储量下降最为明显。咸阳市的未来规划应充分考虑土地利用对碳储量的影响,保护生态用地,限制建设用地的大量扩张,以实现土地利用和碳排放的双重优化。研究结果可为咸阳市生态系统碳汇能力的提升和国土空间的优化提供科学依据和数据参考。 展开更多
关键词 PLUS模型 invest模型 土地利用变化 碳储量 咸阳市
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基于FLUS-InVEST模型的石羊河流域水源涵养量估算及影响因子分析
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作者 侯慧敏 任志伟 王万祯 《中国农业气象》 2025年第6期796-807,共12页
基于土地利用数据、气象数据和土壤类型空间等多源数据,利用FLUS模型预估2035年自然发展、生态保护以及耕地保护情景下石羊河流域土地利用空间格局变化,并耦合In VEST模型模拟3种情景下的水源涵养量。对比2020年石羊河流域水源涵养量,... 基于土地利用数据、气象数据和土壤类型空间等多源数据,利用FLUS模型预估2035年自然发展、生态保护以及耕地保护情景下石羊河流域土地利用空间格局变化,并耦合In VEST模型模拟3种情景下的水源涵养量。对比2020年石羊河流域水源涵养量,深入探究3种情景下该流域水源涵养量时空分布规律及影响因素,以期解决水资源管理不规范等问题。结果表明:(1)2035年自然发展、生态保护以及耕地保护情景下石羊河流域水源涵养量预估分别为5.28×10^(8)m^(3)、5.25×10^(8)m^(3)和5.33×10^(8)m^(3)。(2)从不同县级行政区分析,2035年自然发展、生态保护以及耕地保护情景下肃南裕固族自治县的水源涵养量较2020年增长量最大,分别增长24.53%、27.03%和24.55%。古浪县水源涵养量较2020年分别下降30.74%、15.38%和29.72%。从不同土地利用类型分析,2035年自然发展、生态保护以及耕地保护情景下石羊河流域的水源涵养总量表现为草地>未利用地>森林>农田>灌木>建设用地。(3)年平均气温是影响2020年石羊河流域水源涵养量空间分异主导因素,年平均气温与NDVI交互作用解释力最强,达0.76。社会因子(年末总人口、GDP)与自然因子(平均气温、数字高程、降水量和坡度)交互作用呈双因子增强效果。 展开更多
关键词 水源涵养量 invest模型 FLUS模型 地理探测器
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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的长江流域生态系统碳储量时空演变模拟与预测 被引量:4
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作者 万幸 姬广兴 +4 位作者 陈伟强 张亚丽 黄珺嫦 郭宇龙 陈轶楠 《农业资源与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期518-528,共11页
陆地生态系统的碳储量会随着土地利用情况的变化而发生改变,探讨区域陆地生态系统土地利用变化对碳储量的影响以及碳储量的时空变化规律,对未来土地管理决策和生态系统的平衡具有重要意义。本研究以长江流域为例,基于1980—2020年5期的... 陆地生态系统的碳储量会随着土地利用情况的变化而发生改变,探讨区域陆地生态系统土地利用变化对碳储量的影响以及碳储量的时空变化规律,对未来土地管理决策和生态系统的平衡具有重要意义。本研究以长江流域为例,基于1980—2020年5期的土地利用数据,在PLUS模型中利用修正后的土地利用数据分别模拟了SSP1-1.9、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种情景下2030—2050年土地利用分布格局,并运用InVEST模型采用修正后的碳密度定量评估不同SSP-RCP情景下2030—2050年陆地生态系统碳储量的空间变化。结果表明:1980—2020年耕地面积占比减少1.12个百分点,耕地部分转化为林地、建设用地,2020年长江流域碳储量相比于1980年降低5.43×10^(7)t。在SSP系列三种情景下未利用地面积均减少,其中SSP1-1.9情景下未利用地面积减量最多,减少了9.12×10^(5) hm^(2),而建设用地面积在三种情景下均上升。2030—2050年间,SSP1-1.9情景下碳储量增加2.22×108t,而其他情景碳储量均下降。研究表明,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下长江流域碳储量均呈下降趋势,应加强土地的高效利用及绿色基础设施建设,提高流域内生态系统碳汇能力。 展开更多
关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 invest模型 PLUS模型 长江流域 SSP-RCP情景
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基于PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型的黄河中游碳储量时空变化及驱动因素 被引量:2
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作者 毕帆帆 武志涛 +3 位作者 梁寒雪 杜自强 雷添杰 孙斌 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第8期4742-4753,共12页
“双碳”战略背景下,研究黄河中游碳储量的时空变化特征及其驱动因素,对实现区域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义.基于5 a间隔选取黄河中游2000~2020年5期土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型估算并分析碳储量的时空演变特... “双碳”战略背景下,研究黄河中游碳储量的时空变化特征及其驱动因素,对实现区域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义.基于5 a间隔选取黄河中游2000~2020年5期土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector模型估算并分析碳储量的时空演变特征,并探讨影响碳储量时空分异的驱动因素,最后在自然发展、生态保护、经济发展和耕地保护这4种发展情景下对2030年黄河中游碳储量进行预测.结果表明:(1)2000~2020年黄河中游碳储量呈持续增长趋势,增长了5.75×10^(7) t,空间分布演化较为平稳,呈现“东南高于西北”的空间分布特征.(2)2000~2020年,NDVI是黄河中游碳储量时空分异的主要驱动因子,各驱动因子交互探测均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强作用.(3)2020~2030年黄河中游4种情景的碳储量较2020年均呈增加趋势,其中生态保护情景碳储量增加最多,为3.93×10^(7) t,经济发展情景碳储量增加最少,为4.8×10^(6) t.研究结果将为黄河中游的长期发展和生态环境管理提供一定的数据支撑. 展开更多
关键词 碳储量 invest模型 PLUS模型 土地利用 黄河中游 地理探测器
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基于PLUS与InVEST模型的新疆碳储量变化及预测 被引量:15
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作者 杨顺法 昝梅 +5 位作者 袁瑞联 陈治中 孔晶晶 薛聪 周佳 翟莉莉 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期378-387,共10页
土地利用变化是造成陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,研究干旱区不同土地利用类型碳储量变化的影响机制,模拟未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量的变化,有助于为干旱区制定科学的土地利用政策从而推动该区域高质量可持续的发展.基于2000~... 土地利用变化是造成陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,研究干旱区不同土地利用类型碳储量变化的影响机制,模拟未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量的变化,有助于为干旱区制定科学的土地利用政策从而推动该区域高质量可持续的发展.基于2000~2020年新疆土地利用数据,耦合PLUS-InVEST模型分析了2000~2020年新疆土地利用和碳储量的时空变化特征,并预测了自然发展(Z1)、经济发展(Z2)、可持续发展(Z3)、耕地保护发展(Z4)和生态保护发展情景(Z5)下的2030年新疆土地利用和碳储量变化.结果表明:①2000~2020年间,新疆碳储量总值呈现出先减少后增加的总体减少趋势,共减少4.2682×108 t,草地大量退化成未利用地是新疆碳储量减少的主要原因.②不同土地利用类型碳储量变化贡献率分析表明,耕地、林地、草地、水域和未利用地碳储量变化主要影响因素为自然因素,建设用地碳储量变化主要影响因素为人文经济因素.新疆碳储量变化的原因是自然和人文经济因素共同影响的结果.③与2020年相比,新疆2030年5种发展情景下碳储量都保持增加趋势,其中可持续发展情景(Z3)下碳储量增加值最多为66.7236×106 t,该发展情景是未来提高新疆碳储量保证经济发展最优的模式.以上研究结果可以为新疆未来国土空间规划和实现“碳中和”目标提供理论依据. 展开更多
关键词 土地利用 碳储量 PLUS-invest模型 新疆 贡献率分析
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基于InVEST-PLUS模型的皖江流域碳储量时空演变及预测 被引量:5
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作者 唐文睿 曹玉红 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第6期3818-3829,共12页
探究土地利用时空演变给生态系统碳储量带来的影响,对全球达成减排增汇目标具有积极的反馈意义.依据2000~2020年3期土地利用数据,并结合InVEST模型对皖江流域碳储量的时空变化加以分析,运用PLUS模型预测皖江流域2040年的自然发展、城镇... 探究土地利用时空演变给生态系统碳储量带来的影响,对全球达成减排增汇目标具有积极的反馈意义.依据2000~2020年3期土地利用数据,并结合InVEST模型对皖江流域碳储量的时空变化加以分析,运用PLUS模型预测皖江流域2040年的自然发展、城镇保护、耕地保护和生态保护这4种情景,进而估算不同情景中生态系统的碳储量.结果显示:①土地利用变化直接影响研究区的碳储量.在2000~2020年期间,耕地、草地和未利用地的面积依次降低了1096.73、5.92和4.55 km^(2),林地、水域和建设用地的面积各自增加了48.9、69.68和988.6 km^(2).碳储量减少2.84×10^(6)t,碳储量与土地利用空间分布一致,碳储量较高区域的建设用地少、生态用地集聚连片且分布较多.②2040年多情景模拟显示,整体土地利用格局一致,局部变化明显.自然发展、城镇发展和生态保护情景中碳储量分别下降2.485×10^(6)、2.513×10^(6)和0.749×10^(6)t,其中在耕地保护情景下,碳储量下降最少0.029×10^(6)t.③碳储量空间分异主要受气候因素影响.地理探测器表明,年平均降水(0.139)解释力最高,是皖江流域碳储量空间分异的主要驱动因子.植被净初级生产力与年平均降水的协同影响类型(0.382)最强.研究结果表明,采取耕地保护和生态保护政策可控制碳储量减少,在未来规划中,应保护生态用地,控制建设用地扩张,以提高碳储量水平. 展开更多
关键词 土地利用变化 碳储量 invest模型 地理探测器 皖江流域
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