摘要
为分析无锡市土地利用历史时空变化以及土地利用对当地陆地生态系统碳储量的影响,基于无锡市2000—2020年土地利用数据,运用FLUS模型预测无锡市2030年自然发展情景、经济发展情景和生态保护情景的土地利用转移;耦合InVEST模型,使用其碳储量模块对无锡市历史及未来碳储量进行分析,从而实现未来用地转移的合理化。结果表明:无锡市最主要的用地类型为耕地,发展用地因其面积逐年增加,与林地为第二重要用地,历史土地利用方式主要为耕地向发展用地转变。无锡市耕地对碳储量的贡献率最高,其次是林地,然而,自2010年以来,发展用地的碳储量贡献率超过了林地,导致市内碳储量逐年减少。在自然发展和经济发展情景下,未来的碳储量与2020年碳储量相比分别减少55.20×10^(4)和78.34×10^(4)t,生态保护情景的碳储量则增加0.58×10^(4)t。
To analyze the historical spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in Wuxi City and assess their impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks,this study used land-use data for 2000—2020 and applied the FLUS model to simulate land use patterns in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,economic development,and ecological protection.Coupling these simulations with the InVEST model,this study employed its carbon stock module to quantify historical and projected carbon stocks and to inform rational land-use transitions.The results indicate that cropland is the dominant land use type in Wuxi City.Built-up land has expanded year by year and,together with forest land,constitutes the second most important land use.Historically,the principal land-use transition was from cropland to built-up land.Cropland contributed the most to total carbon stock,followed by forest land;however,since 2010,the contribution rate of built-up land has exceeded that of forest land,resulting in a year-on-year decline in the city's total carbon stock.Relative to 2020,total carbon stock in 2030 is projected to decrease by 55.2×10^(4)t and 78.34×10^(4)t under the natural development and economic development scenarios,respectively,whereas it is projected to increase by 0.58×10^(4)t under the ecological protection scenario.
作者
吴朝明
朱骊
杨锐
戈禹
Wu Chaoming;Zhu Li;Yang Rui;Ge Yu(Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation,Wuxi Branch,Wuxi 214000,China)
出处
《农业科学研究(中英文)》
2026年第1期57-63,共7页
Journal of Agricultural Sciences
