摘要
[目的]模拟预测不同情景下河北省承德市的水源涵养功能,为优化该市国土空间布局,提升复合生态系统服务能力及保障京津冀水资源安全提供科学支撑。[方法]基于PLUS-InVEST耦合模型,设置耕地保护、生态保护、自然发展、城市扩张4种情景,对承德市2028,2033和2038年土地利用变化及水源涵养功能进行预测与分析。[结果](1)承德市“三生”空间冲突将持续影响土地利用变化,其中森林面积总体稳定,但草地除生态保护情景外普遍遭受侵占并呈退化趋势;城市扩张情景下不透水面面积显著增加。(2)未来不同情景下,承德市水源涵养功能分布格局保持高度稳定,但总量对土地利用变化响应敏感。除生态保护情景外草地水源涵养量持续下降,城市扩张情景下森林水源涵养功能被侵占,不透水面水源涵养量异常升高。[结论]耕地、林地及草地是承德市水源涵养功能的主体,承德市面临着草地退化与城市无序扩张的双重压力。未来应在严格保护森林生态系统的前提下,统筹协调耕地保护与草地恢复,严格控制不透水面的无序扩张。
[Objective]The water conservation function of Chengde City of Hebei Province was simulated and predicted under different scenarios,in order to provide scientific support for optimizing the territorial spatial layout,enhance the capability of composite ecosystem services,and ensure water resource security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.[Methods]Based on the PLUS-InVEST coupled model,four scenarios were establishedcultivated land protection,ecological protection,natural development,and urban expansion-to predict and analyze land use and water conservation function in Chengde City in 2028,2033,and 2038.[Results]①The conflicts among production-living-ecological spaces continued to influence land use changes in Chengde City.The area of forest land remained generally stable,while grassland,except under the ecological protection scenario,was widely encroached upon and showed a trend of degradation.Under the urban expansion scenario,the area of impervious surfaces increased significantly.②Under future scenarios,the distribution pattern of water conservation function in Chengde City remained highly stable,but the total amount was sensitive to land use changes.Except for the ecological protection scenario,the water conservation amount of grassland continued to decline.Under the urban expansion scenario,the water conservation function of forest land was encroached upon,while the water conservation amount of impervious surfaces increased abnormally.[Conclusion]Cultivated land,forest land,and grassland are the main contributors to water conservation function in Chengde City,which faces dual pressures of grassland degradation and unregulated urban expansion.In the future,while strictly protecting forest ecosystems,it is necessary to coordinate the protection of cultivated land with grassland restoration and to strictly control the unregulated expansion of impervious surfaces.
作者
吕铁冰
苏伟
贾梓琦
胡宝月
刘宏权
付银环
马素英
Lyu Tiebing;Su Wei;Jia Ziqi;Hu Baoyue;Liu Hongquan;Fu Yinhuan;Ma Suying(College of Urban and Rural Construction,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071000,China;Bohai College,Hebei Agricultural University,Cangzhou,Hebei 061100,China;Hebei Province Academy of Water Resources,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050057,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
北大核心
2026年第1期344-354,共11页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河北省自主培养人才科研专项“永定河景观蓄水河段生态功能提升关键技术研究”(ZY2024006)
河北省省级水利科技计划项目(HBST2024-02)
河北省“三三三人才工程”项目(B2024003)
水利水运工程教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(SLK2021B02)。
