Semen evaluation is required to predict fertility. In most rural African communities, facilities for microscopic evaluation of semen are not available. Therefore, an indirect method of predicting semen traits of cocks...Semen evaluation is required to predict fertility. In most rural African communities, facilities for microscopic evaluation of semen are not available. Therefore, an indirect method of predicting semen traits of cocks is required by poultry farmers. The objective of this study was to use factor scores derived from factor analysis of body measurements to predict some semen traits of cocks. Correlation matrix was obtained by calculating the correlations between body measurements and semen traits of cocks. Kais-er-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy and Bartletts test of sphericity were used to test the appropriateness of factor analysis on the data. The extraction of the factors was done by calculating the eigenvalues of the correlation matrix. Variance maximizing rotation of the transformation matrix was done to facilitate the interpretation of the factor loadings. Two factors with eigenvalues greater than 1 were extracted which accounted for 76.96% of the variations present in the original variables. The two factors were used to obtain the factor score coefficients. When utilized as independent variables in multiple regression analysis, the two factors explained 53.20% and 40.80% of the variations in sperm motility and sperm concentration respectively. Factor 1 had more impact on sperm motility than factor 2 as it was significantly related to it. Factor 2 was significantly more related to sperm concentration than factor 1. The relationship between body measurements and semen volume, live sperm and abnormal sperm were weak and mostly negative. Therefore, they were not predicted using factor scores.展开更多
Objectives: The role of SYNTAX (SX) score in assessing the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) is well established. In this study we investigate the relationship between conventional risk factors of CAD with i...Objectives: The role of SYNTAX (SX) score in assessing the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) is well established. In this study we investigate the relationship between conventional risk factors of CAD with its complexity using SX score. Methods: The study consisted of 52 patients with CAD who were admitted to Cardiology Department—Menoufia University Hospitals for elective coronary angiography. The overall SX score was calculated prospectively using the SX score algorithm. Then comparison was done between populations with and without each risk factor. Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and smoking with SX score results (p 0.05). In a multivariate regression analysis, including conventional risk factors of CAD as independent covariates, it revealed that aging, having diabetes mellitus and smoking were identified as significant independent risk factors for CAD complexity. Conclusion: Advanced age, having diabetes mellitus and cigarette smoking are considered to be independent risk factors for the complexity of CAD. Therefore, when these factors present, we expect that the SX score of the patient to be high indicating a complex CAD.展开更多
AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clini...AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels.METHODS：The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants.IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life,1st,2nd,3rd and4th week of life was analyzed.The score was established after logistic regression analysis,considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP.A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated.RESULTS：Birth weights（BW）,gestational weeks（GW）and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower,respiratory distress syndrome（RDS）,bronchopulmonarydysplasia（BPD）and necrotizing enterocolitis（NEC）were more frequent,the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP（P〈0.05）.Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP.Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW（〈1250 g）,presence of intraventricular hemorrhage（IVH）and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP.Afterwards,the scoring system was validated on 107 infants.The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%,74.7%and 79.8%while positive predictive values were 76.3%,65.5%and71.6%respectively.CONCLUSION：In addition to BW〈1250 g and IVH,formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP.Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.展开更多
AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF...AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were measured and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score calculated in 121 adult patients referred to a single centre for liver transplantation.Bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were assessed via dual energy X-ray absorptiometry.Demographics,liver disease etiology,medication use and relevant biochemistry were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 117 subjects were included,with low BMD seen in 68.6%,irrespective of disease etiol-ogy.In multivariable analysis,low body mass index (BMI),increased bone turnover and low IGF-1 were independent predictors of low spinal bone density.At the hip,BMI,IGF-1 and vitamin D status were predictive.Despite prevalent elevations of TNFα and IL-6,levels did not correlate with degree of bone loss.The MELD score failed to predict low BMD in this pre-transplant population.CONCLUSION:Osteopenia/osteoporosis is common in advanced liver disease.Low serum IGF-1 is weakly predictive but serum cytokine and MELD score fail to predict the severity of bone disease.展开更多
Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Gro...Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83% and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.展开更多
AIM To investigate potential triggering factors leading to acute liver failure(ALF) as the initial presentation of autoimmune hepatitis(AIH).METHODS A total of 565 patients treated at our Department between 2005 and 2...AIM To investigate potential triggering factors leading to acute liver failure(ALF) as the initial presentation of autoimmune hepatitis(AIH).METHODS A total of 565 patients treated at our Department between 2005 and 2017 for histologically-proven AIH were retrospectively analyzed. However, 52 patients(9.2%) fulfilled the criteria for ALF defined by the "American Association for the Study of the Liver(AASLD)". According to this definition, patients with "acute-on-chronic" or "acute-on-cirrhosis" liver failure were excluded. Following parameters with focus on potential triggering factors were evaluated: Patients' demographics, causation of liver failure, laboratory data(liver enzymes, MELD-score, autoimmune markers, virus serology), liver histology, immunosuppressive regime, and finally, outcome of our patients.RESULTS The majority of patients with ALF were female(84.6%) and mean age was 43.6 ± 14.9 years. Interestingly, none of the patients with ALF was positive for antiliver kidney microsomal antibody(LKM). We could identify potential triggering factors in 26/52(50.0%) of previously healthy patients presenting ALF as their first manifestation of AIH. These were drug-induced ALF(57.7%), virus-induced ALF(30.8%), and preceding surgery in general anesthesia(11.5%), respectively. Unfortunately, 6 out of 52 patients(11.5%) did not survive ALF and 3 patients(5.7%) underwent liver transplantation(LT). Comparing data of survivors and patients with non-recovery following treatment, MELDscore(P < 0.001), age(P < 0.05), creatinine(P < 0.01), and finally, ALT-values(P < 0.05) reached statistical significance. CONCLUSION Drugs, viral infections, and previous surgery may trigger ALF as the initial presentation of AIH. Advanced age and high MELD-score were associated with lethal outcome.展开更多
According to the 2008 Statistics Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development of Hubei Province, factor analysis method is used to study on the development of county economy in Hubei Province. Result shows...According to the 2008 Statistics Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development of Hubei Province, factor analysis method is used to study on the development of county economy in Hubei Province. Result shows that there are great differences in the economic development and the development is imbalanced. The 76 counties (cities, districts) in Hubei Province are divided into three types of F>1, 0<F<1 and F<0, that is, areas with relatively developed county economy, areas with medium developed county economy and areas with less developed county economy. Finally, countermeasures to accelerate the development of county economy are put forward, such as adhering to the reform of market economy, developing private economy, speeding up the process of industrialization, making efforts to support leading enterprises, promoting the industrialized operation of agriculture, further attracting foreign investment, carrying out industrialization during the development of projects and enterprises, changing soft environment by measures, and promoting the development of county economy by innovation.展开更多
BACKGROUND:Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis is essential to the proper management of the disease.It is dependent on the criteria of the Atlanta classification system.DATA SOURCES:PubMed search of...BACKGROUND:Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis is essential to the proper management of the disease.It is dependent on the criteria of the Atlanta classification system.DATA SOURCES:PubMed search of recent relevant articles was performed to identify information about the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.RESULTS:The scoring systems included the Ranson’s or Glasgow’s criteria ≥3,the APACHE II classification system ≥8,and the Balthazar’s criteria ≥4 according to the computed tomography enhanced scanning findings.The single factors on admission included age >65 years,obesity,hemoconcentration(>44%),abnormal chest X-ray,creatinine >2 mg/dl,C-reactive protein>150 mg/dl,procalcitonin >1.8 ng/ml,albumin <2.5 mg/dl,calcium <8.5 mg/dl,early hyperglycemia,increased intra-abdominal pressure,macrophage migration inhibitory factor,or a combination of IL-10 >50 pg/ml with calcium <6.6 mg/dl.CONCLUSION:The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis is largely based on well defined multiple factor scoring systems as well as several single risk factors.展开更多
Taking the rural economic indicator data in 17 cities (regions) of Hubei Province in 2009 as samples, this paper establishes evaluation index system of rural economic development in Hubei Province, uses factor analysi...Taking the rural economic indicator data in 17 cities (regions) of Hubei Province in 2009 as samples, this paper establishes evaluation index system of rural economic development in Hubei Province, uses factor analysis method for analysis, and draws out four factors. The conclusion is objective and believable, which meshes with the reality well. Finally the policy suggestions and implementation measures are put forward to promote the rural economic development in Hubei Province as follows: first, promote the farmers' income to increase continuously, and improve the living standards of farmers; second, implement the policies of benefiting farmers and making farmers powerful, and propel the resource factors to be allocated in rural areas; third, promote the level of modern agricultural equipment, and promote the transformation of agricultural development mode; fourth, coordinate and promote urban-rural reform, and speed up the improvement of rural livelihood.展开更多
Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic scoring scheme for the prediction of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients of Thai descent. Methods: The clinical information from type 2 diabetic patients who we...Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic scoring scheme for the prediction of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients of Thai descent. Methods: The clinical information from type 2 diabetic patients who were treated at community hospitals was used to develop a prediction model (derivation set). The model evaluated at a tertiary hospital (validation set). A stepwise logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk variables from the derivation set and a simple point scoring system was derived from the beta-coefficients. The risk scoring scheme was validated by the validation set. Results: The risk scoring scheme is based on six risk predictors: the duration of diabetes, age at the onset of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low density lipoprotein levels, creatinine levels, and alcohol consumption. The total score ranged from 0 to 11.5. The likelihood of microalbuminuria in patients with low risk (scores ≤ 2) was 0.28, with moderate risk (scores 2.5 to 5.5) was 0.86, and high risk (scores ≥ 6) was 7.36. The area under the ROC curve of the derivation set and validation set were 0.768 (95% CI 0.73 - 0.81) and 0.758 (95% CI 0.70 - 0.80), respectively. Conclusion: Our scoring system is a simple and reasonably accurate method for predicting the future presence of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients.展开更多
BACKGROUND Timely and accurate identification of subgroup at risk for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients presenting with acute chest pain remains a challenge.Currently available risk stratification sco...BACKGROUND Timely and accurate identification of subgroup at risk for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients presenting with acute chest pain remains a challenge.Currently available risk stratification scores are suboptimal.Recently,a new scoring system called the Symptoms,history of Vascular disease,Electrocardiography,Age,and Troponin(SVEAT)score has been shown to outperform the History,Electrocardiography,Age,Risk factors and Troponin(HEART)score,one of the most used risk scores in the United States.AIM To assess the potential usefulness of the SVEAT score as a risk stratification tool by comparing its performance to HEART score in chest pain patients with low suspicion for acute coronary syndrome and admitted for overnight observation.METHODS We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 330 consecutive patients admitted to our clinical decision unit for acute chest pain between January 1st to April 17th,2019.To avoid potential biases,investigators assigned to calculate the SVEAT,and HEART scores were blinded to the results of 30-d combined endpoint of death,acute myocardial infarction or confirmed coronary artery disease requiring revascularization or medical therapy[30-d major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE)].An area under receiving-operator characteristic curve(AUC)for each score was then calculated.C-statistic and logistic model were used to compare RESULTS A 30-d MACE was observed in 11 patients(3.33%of the subjects).The AUC of SVEAT score(0.8876,95%CI:0.82-0.96)was significantly higher than the AUC of HEART score(0.7962,95%CI:0.71-0.88),P=0.03.Using logistic model,SVEAT score with cut-off of 4 or less significantly predicts 30-d MACE(odd ratio 1.52,95%CI:1.19-1.95,P=0.001)but not the HEART score(odd ratio 1.29,95%CI:0.78-2.14,P=0.32).CONCLUSION The SVEAT score is superior to the HEART score as a risk stratification tool for acute chest pain in low to intermediate risk patients.展开更多
文摘Semen evaluation is required to predict fertility. In most rural African communities, facilities for microscopic evaluation of semen are not available. Therefore, an indirect method of predicting semen traits of cocks is required by poultry farmers. The objective of this study was to use factor scores derived from factor analysis of body measurements to predict some semen traits of cocks. Correlation matrix was obtained by calculating the correlations between body measurements and semen traits of cocks. Kais-er-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy and Bartletts test of sphericity were used to test the appropriateness of factor analysis on the data. The extraction of the factors was done by calculating the eigenvalues of the correlation matrix. Variance maximizing rotation of the transformation matrix was done to facilitate the interpretation of the factor loadings. Two factors with eigenvalues greater than 1 were extracted which accounted for 76.96% of the variations present in the original variables. The two factors were used to obtain the factor score coefficients. When utilized as independent variables in multiple regression analysis, the two factors explained 53.20% and 40.80% of the variations in sperm motility and sperm concentration respectively. Factor 1 had more impact on sperm motility than factor 2 as it was significantly related to it. Factor 2 was significantly more related to sperm concentration than factor 1. The relationship between body measurements and semen volume, live sperm and abnormal sperm were weak and mostly negative. Therefore, they were not predicted using factor scores.
文摘Objectives: The role of SYNTAX (SX) score in assessing the complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD) is well established. In this study we investigate the relationship between conventional risk factors of CAD with its complexity using SX score. Methods: The study consisted of 52 patients with CAD who were admitted to Cardiology Department—Menoufia University Hospitals for elective coronary angiography. The overall SX score was calculated prospectively using the SX score algorithm. Then comparison was done between populations with and without each risk factor. Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and smoking with SX score results (p 0.05). In a multivariate regression analysis, including conventional risk factors of CAD as independent covariates, it revealed that aging, having diabetes mellitus and smoking were identified as significant independent risk factors for CAD complexity. Conclusion: Advanced age, having diabetes mellitus and cigarette smoking are considered to be independent risk factors for the complexity of CAD. Therefore, when these factors present, we expect that the SX score of the patient to be high indicating a complex CAD.
文摘AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels.METHODS：The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants.IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life,1st,2nd,3rd and4th week of life was analyzed.The score was established after logistic regression analysis,considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP.A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated.RESULTS：Birth weights（BW）,gestational weeks（GW）and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower,respiratory distress syndrome（RDS）,bronchopulmonarydysplasia（BPD）and necrotizing enterocolitis（NEC）were more frequent,the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP（P〈0.05）.Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP.Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW（〈1250 g）,presence of intraventricular hemorrhage（IVH）and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP.Afterwards,the scoring system was validated on 107 infants.The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%,74.7%and 79.8%while positive predictive values were 76.3%,65.5%and71.6%respectively.CONCLUSION：In addition to BW〈1250 g and IVH,formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP.Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.
基金Supported by the Transplant Program of the University of Alberta Hospital
文摘AIM:To determine the contributions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1),cytokines and liver disease severity to bone mineral density in patients pre-transplantation.METHODS:Serum IGF-1,tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) were measured and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score calculated in 121 adult patients referred to a single centre for liver transplantation.Bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were assessed via dual energy X-ray absorptiometry.Demographics,liver disease etiology,medication use and relevant biochemistry were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 117 subjects were included,with low BMD seen in 68.6%,irrespective of disease etiol-ogy.In multivariable analysis,low body mass index (BMI),increased bone turnover and low IGF-1 were independent predictors of low spinal bone density.At the hip,BMI,IGF-1 and vitamin D status were predictive.Despite prevalent elevations of TNFα and IL-6,levels did not correlate with degree of bone loss.The MELD score failed to predict low BMD in this pre-transplant population.CONCLUSION:Osteopenia/osteoporosis is common in advanced liver disease.Low serum IGF-1 is weakly predictive but serum cytokine and MELD score fail to predict the severity of bone disease.
基金Project (No. 963000052) supported by the Science and Technology Department of Shandong Province, China
文摘Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83% and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.
文摘AIM To investigate potential triggering factors leading to acute liver failure(ALF) as the initial presentation of autoimmune hepatitis(AIH).METHODS A total of 565 patients treated at our Department between 2005 and 2017 for histologically-proven AIH were retrospectively analyzed. However, 52 patients(9.2%) fulfilled the criteria for ALF defined by the "American Association for the Study of the Liver(AASLD)". According to this definition, patients with "acute-on-chronic" or "acute-on-cirrhosis" liver failure were excluded. Following parameters with focus on potential triggering factors were evaluated: Patients' demographics, causation of liver failure, laboratory data(liver enzymes, MELD-score, autoimmune markers, virus serology), liver histology, immunosuppressive regime, and finally, outcome of our patients.RESULTS The majority of patients with ALF were female(84.6%) and mean age was 43.6 ± 14.9 years. Interestingly, none of the patients with ALF was positive for antiliver kidney microsomal antibody(LKM). We could identify potential triggering factors in 26/52(50.0%) of previously healthy patients presenting ALF as their first manifestation of AIH. These were drug-induced ALF(57.7%), virus-induced ALF(30.8%), and preceding surgery in general anesthesia(11.5%), respectively. Unfortunately, 6 out of 52 patients(11.5%) did not survive ALF and 3 patients(5.7%) underwent liver transplantation(LT). Comparing data of survivors and patients with non-recovery following treatment, MELDscore(P < 0.001), age(P < 0.05), creatinine(P < 0.01), and finally, ALT-values(P < 0.05) reached statistical significance. CONCLUSION Drugs, viral infections, and previous surgery may trigger ALF as the initial presentation of AIH. Advanced age and high MELD-score were associated with lethal outcome.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (60873021/F0201)
文摘According to the 2008 Statistics Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development of Hubei Province, factor analysis method is used to study on the development of county economy in Hubei Province. Result shows that there are great differences in the economic development and the development is imbalanced. The 76 counties (cities, districts) in Hubei Province are divided into three types of F>1, 0<F<1 and F<0, that is, areas with relatively developed county economy, areas with medium developed county economy and areas with less developed county economy. Finally, countermeasures to accelerate the development of county economy are put forward, such as adhering to the reform of market economy, developing private economy, speeding up the process of industrialization, making efforts to support leading enterprises, promoting the industrialized operation of agriculture, further attracting foreign investment, carrying out industrialization during the development of projects and enterprises, changing soft environment by measures, and promoting the development of county economy by innovation.
文摘BACKGROUND:Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis is essential to the proper management of the disease.It is dependent on the criteria of the Atlanta classification system.DATA SOURCES:PubMed search of recent relevant articles was performed to identify information about the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.RESULTS:The scoring systems included the Ranson’s or Glasgow’s criteria ≥3,the APACHE II classification system ≥8,and the Balthazar’s criteria ≥4 according to the computed tomography enhanced scanning findings.The single factors on admission included age >65 years,obesity,hemoconcentration(>44%),abnormal chest X-ray,creatinine >2 mg/dl,C-reactive protein>150 mg/dl,procalcitonin >1.8 ng/ml,albumin <2.5 mg/dl,calcium <8.5 mg/dl,early hyperglycemia,increased intra-abdominal pressure,macrophage migration inhibitory factor,or a combination of IL-10 >50 pg/ml with calcium <6.6 mg/dl.CONCLUSION:The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis is largely based on well defined multiple factor scoring systems as well as several single risk factors.
文摘Taking the rural economic indicator data in 17 cities (regions) of Hubei Province in 2009 as samples, this paper establishes evaluation index system of rural economic development in Hubei Province, uses factor analysis method for analysis, and draws out four factors. The conclusion is objective and believable, which meshes with the reality well. Finally the policy suggestions and implementation measures are put forward to promote the rural economic development in Hubei Province as follows: first, promote the farmers' income to increase continuously, and improve the living standards of farmers; second, implement the policies of benefiting farmers and making farmers powerful, and propel the resource factors to be allocated in rural areas; third, promote the level of modern agricultural equipment, and promote the transformation of agricultural development mode; fourth, coordinate and promote urban-rural reform, and speed up the improvement of rural livelihood.
文摘Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic scoring scheme for the prediction of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients of Thai descent. Methods: The clinical information from type 2 diabetic patients who were treated at community hospitals was used to develop a prediction model (derivation set). The model evaluated at a tertiary hospital (validation set). A stepwise logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk variables from the derivation set and a simple point scoring system was derived from the beta-coefficients. The risk scoring scheme was validated by the validation set. Results: The risk scoring scheme is based on six risk predictors: the duration of diabetes, age at the onset of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low density lipoprotein levels, creatinine levels, and alcohol consumption. The total score ranged from 0 to 11.5. The likelihood of microalbuminuria in patients with low risk (scores ≤ 2) was 0.28, with moderate risk (scores 2.5 to 5.5) was 0.86, and high risk (scores ≥ 6) was 7.36. The area under the ROC curve of the derivation set and validation set were 0.768 (95% CI 0.73 - 0.81) and 0.758 (95% CI 0.70 - 0.80), respectively. Conclusion: Our scoring system is a simple and reasonably accurate method for predicting the future presence of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients.
文摘BACKGROUND Timely and accurate identification of subgroup at risk for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients presenting with acute chest pain remains a challenge.Currently available risk stratification scores are suboptimal.Recently,a new scoring system called the Symptoms,history of Vascular disease,Electrocardiography,Age,and Troponin(SVEAT)score has been shown to outperform the History,Electrocardiography,Age,Risk factors and Troponin(HEART)score,one of the most used risk scores in the United States.AIM To assess the potential usefulness of the SVEAT score as a risk stratification tool by comparing its performance to HEART score in chest pain patients with low suspicion for acute coronary syndrome and admitted for overnight observation.METHODS We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 330 consecutive patients admitted to our clinical decision unit for acute chest pain between January 1st to April 17th,2019.To avoid potential biases,investigators assigned to calculate the SVEAT,and HEART scores were blinded to the results of 30-d combined endpoint of death,acute myocardial infarction or confirmed coronary artery disease requiring revascularization or medical therapy[30-d major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE)].An area under receiving-operator characteristic curve(AUC)for each score was then calculated.C-statistic and logistic model were used to compare RESULTS A 30-d MACE was observed in 11 patients(3.33%of the subjects).The AUC of SVEAT score(0.8876,95%CI:0.82-0.96)was significantly higher than the AUC of HEART score(0.7962,95%CI:0.71-0.88),P=0.03.Using logistic model,SVEAT score with cut-off of 4 or less significantly predicts 30-d MACE(odd ratio 1.52,95%CI:1.19-1.95,P=0.001)but not the HEART score(odd ratio 1.29,95%CI:0.78-2.14,P=0.32).CONCLUSION The SVEAT score is superior to the HEART score as a risk stratification tool for acute chest pain in low to intermediate risk patients.
