Objective To investigate the effect of ambient air pollution on human health and the subsequent disabillty-adjusted life years （DALYs） lost in Shanghai. Methods We used epidemiology-based exposure-response functions...Objective To investigate the effect of ambient air pollution on human health and the subsequent disabillty-adjusted life years （DALYs） lost in Shanghai. Methods We used epidemiology-based exposure-response functions to calculate the attributable number of cases due to air pollution in Shanghai in 2000, and then we estimated the corresponding DALYs lost in Shanghai based on unit DALYs values of the health consequences. Results Ambient air pollution caused 103 064 DALYs lost in Shanghai in 2000. Among all the health endpoints, premature deaths and chronic bronchitis predominated in the value of total DALYs lost. Conclusion The air pollution levels have an adverse effect on the general population health and strengthen the rationale for limiting the levels of air pollution in outdoor air in Shanghai.展开更多
Economic burdens of injuries at the country level are unknown. In the current study we tried to explore the economic burden of DALYs loss due to injuries at the country level, then distributed according to the World B...Economic burdens of injuries at the country level are unknown. In the current study we tried to explore the economic burden of DALYs loss due to injuries at the country level, then distributed according to the World Bank’s income groups. Methods: Data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization websites were used. Disability adjusted life year (DALY) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were used to estimate the economic loss for RTIs. Estimates of economic burdens were presented in tables and figures. Results: The total economic loss of the world during 2004 by means of DALYs due to injuries was 613. 144 billion USD, corresponding value of 848.205 billion USD in 2014. DALYs burden of injuries were concentrated (almost 75%) among low and lower middle income countries. Economic burdens of injuries were concentrated (over 80%) among higher middle and high income countries. Iraq had lost almost one-fifth of its GDP due to injuries. The USA had the highest amount of economic loss for injuries (169.136 billion USD) among all countries. Conclusion: Injuries are highly expensive and they account for heavy losses to GDP. Injury prevention should be prioritized in order to save such losses to life and economies.展开更多
目的分析1990—2021年中国老年人口腔疾病的疾病负担及变化趋势,为我国制定老年口腔健康相关干预策略提供参考依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)2021年数据库,提取1990~2021年中国地区年龄≥60岁人群不同类型...目的分析1990—2021年中国老年人口腔疾病的疾病负担及变化趋势,为我国制定老年口腔健康相关干预策略提供参考依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)2021年数据库,提取1990~2021年中国地区年龄≥60岁人群不同类型口腔疾病(恒牙龋齿、无牙症、牙周病和其他口腔疾病)的患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)相关数据,由于数据可获得性的限制,其他口腔疾病仅纳入DALYs和患病率。计算老年人不同类型口腔疾病的年龄标准化患病率(age-standardized prevalence rate,ASPR)、年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)和年龄标准化DALYs率(agestandardized DALYs rate,ASDR),采用Joinpoint回归模型通过平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)分析疾病负担变化趋势,并分析不同性别与年龄组(60~64岁、65~69岁、70~74岁、75~79岁、80~84岁、85~89岁、90~94岁、95+岁)的口腔疾病负担。结果1990—2021年,中国老年人总口腔疾病ASDR和ASPR均下降,而ASIR略有上升;恒牙龋齿的ASDR、ASIR和ASPR均显著上升,无牙症的ASDR和ASPR均下降,ASIR保持稳定;牙周病的ASDR与ASPR基本稳定,ASIR轻微下降;其他口腔疾病ASDR轻微下降,ASPR保持稳定。中国老年人口腔疾病负担存在性别和年龄差异,女性总口腔疾病、恒牙龋齿、无牙症的ASDR、ASIR和ASPR均高于男性;牙周病的ASDR、ASIR和ASPR低于男性,女性其他口腔疾病的ASDR和ASPR均高于男性;总口腔疾病85~89岁、90~94岁、95+岁高龄组DALYs率和患病率上升,而其他年龄组DALYs和患病率下降;恒牙龋齿60~64岁组DALYs率、发病率和患病率升幅最大;无牙症95+岁组DALYs率和患病率上升幅度最高且持续上升,60~64岁组下降最快;牙周病90~94岁、95+岁组DALYs率和患病率均下降,70~74岁、75~79岁组DALYs率、发病率和患病率均上升;其他口腔疾病负担分布相对稳定或变化幅度较小,没有出现显著的年龄转移趋势。结论1990—2021年,中国老年人口腔疾病负担总体呈下降趋势;龋齿呈显著上升趋势,无牙症呈下降趋势;牙周病趋势基本稳定;其他口腔疾病呈轻微下降趋势。需重点关注老年女性及85岁以上高龄老年人等脆弱群体的口腔健康需求。展开更多
目的估算2019年北京市五环内因环境噪声导致的疾病负担及其空间分布特征。方法基于北京市五环内噪声地图模拟数据及分年龄段人口数据,采用世界卫生组织系统综述中的暴露-反应关系,利用伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DA...目的估算2019年北京市五环内因环境噪声导致的疾病负担及其空间分布特征。方法基于北京市五环内噪声地图模拟数据及分年龄段人口数据,采用世界卫生组织系统综述中的暴露-反应关系,利用伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)这一指标评估环境噪声造成的烦恼、睡眠障碍及缺血性心脏病的疾病负担,并探讨其空间分布趋势。结果2019年北京市五环内因环境噪声所致总DALY为629.1万人年,其中,寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)和健康寿命损失年(years lived with disability,YLD)分别为5.3和623.8万人年。环境噪声造成的烦恼疾病负担为291.2万人年,睡眠障碍疾病负担为303.3万人年,缺血性心脏病的疾病负担为34.6万人年。空间分布显示城市中心疾病负担明显高于四周,且与道路交通干线和人口密度分布相对一致。此外,对缺血性心脏病进行年龄分层分析发现,随着年龄的增长,噪声所致健康损害逐渐增加。结论北京市五环内环境噪声导致了较重的疾病负担,主要集中在城市中心和交通干线附近。未来噪声防治应加强对噪声污染的控制措施,特别是针对高风险区域和人群。展开更多
Objective Pulmonary arterial hypertension(PAH)poses a growing global health challenge,yet comprehensive epidemiological data remain limited.This study aims to assess the burden of PAH from 1990 to 2021 and project tre...Objective Pulmonary arterial hypertension(PAH)poses a growing global health challenge,yet comprehensive epidemiological data remain limited.This study aims to assess the burden of PAH from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2040,addressing critical gaps in incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)across diverse socio-demographic contexts.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 study,we analyzed PAH burden across 204 countries and territories,stratified by age,sex,region,and socio-demographic index(SDI).Age-standardized rates(per 100,000 populations)for incidence(ASIR),mortality(ASMR),and DALYs(ASDR)were calculated.Future trends were projected via a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results In 2021,there were 43,251(95%uncertainty interval[UI]:34,705,52,441)global incident PAH cases(age standardized incidence rate[ASIR]:0.52).From 1990 to 2021,PAH incidence rose by 85.62%,with the steepest increase in high-middle SDI regions(average annual percentage change[AAPC]:+0.19%).Despite a 48.36%rise in deaths,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)declined annually by 0.84%,reflecting improved management.Central Europe had the highest ASMR(1.06 per 100,000),while low SDI regions showed reduced ASIR(−0.31%AAPC),likely due to underdiagnosis.PAH caused 642,104 DALYs globally in 2021,with infants(<1 year)bearing the highest DALY rate.Projections indicate 75,000 annual cases by 2040,emphasizing an escalating burden.Conclusion PAH burden is increasing disproportionately in aging populations and high-middle SDI regions,while low SDI areas face underdiagnosis and healthcare disparities.Targeted interventions,equitable resource allocation,and enhanced diagnostic capacity are urgently needed to mitigate future PAH-related morbidity and mortality.展开更多
Background:The burden of common urologic diseases,including benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH),urinary tract infections(UTI),urolithiasis,bladder cancer,kidney cancer,and prostate cancer,varies both geographically and ...Background:The burden of common urologic diseases,including benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH),urinary tract infections(UTI),urolithiasis,bladder cancer,kidney cancer,and prostate cancer,varies both geographically and within specific regions.It is essential to conduct a comprehensive and precise assessment of the global burden of urologic diseases.Methods:We obtained data on incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)for the aforementioned urologic diseases by age,sex,location,and year from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021.We analyzed the burden associated with urologic diseases based on socio-demographic index(SDI)and attributable risk factors.The trends in burden over time were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes(EAPC)along with a 95%confidence interval(CI).Results:In 2021,BPH and UTI were the leading causes of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),with rates of 5531.88 and 2782.59 per 100,000 persons,respectively.Prostate cancer was the leading cause of both age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR),with rates of 12.63 and 217.83 per 100,000 persons,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,there was an upward trend in ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and ASDR for UTI,while urolithiasis showed a downward trend.The middle and low-middle SDI quintile levels exhibited higher incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALYs related to UTI,urolithiasis,and BPH,while the high and high-middle SDI quintile levels showed higher rates for the three cancers.The burden of these 6 urologic diseases displayed diverse age and sex distribution patterns.In 2021,a high body mass index(BMI)contributed to 20.07%of kidney cancer deaths worldwide,while smoking accounted for 26.48%of bladder cancer deaths and 3.00%of prostate cancer deaths.Conclusions:The global burden of 6 urologic diseases presents a significant public health challenge.Urgent international collaboration is essential to advance the improvement of urologic disease management,encompassing the development of effective diagnostic screening tools and the implementation of high-quality prevention and treatment strategies.展开更多
Dear Editor,The global population of individuals aged 65 and older is projected to reach 1.6 billion by 2050[1].Given that urinary tumors,such as bladder cancer(BCa),kidney cancer(KCa),and prostate cancer(PCa),are mor...Dear Editor,The global population of individuals aged 65 and older is projected to reach 1.6 billion by 2050[1].Given that urinary tumors,such as bladder cancer(BCa),kidney cancer(KCa),and prostate cancer(PCa),are more common in older adults,the burden on the healthcare system is increasing[2].Recently,Zi et al.[3]conducted a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of 6 urinary diseases from 1990 to 2021,based on the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2021.展开更多
Background:Subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)is a subtype of hemorrhagic stroke characterized by high mortality and low rates of full recovery.This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of SAH betwe...Background:Subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)is a subtype of hemorrhagic stroke characterized by high mortality and low rates of full recovery.This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of SAH between 1990 and 2021.Methods:Data on SAH incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2021.Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to evaluate changes in the age-standardized rate(ASR)of incidence and mortality,as well as trends in SAH burden.The relationship between disease burden and socio-demographic index(SDI)was also analyzed.Results:In 2021,the incidence of SAH was found to be 37.09%higher than that in 1990;however,the age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)showed a decreased[EAPC:-1.52;95%uncertainty interval(UI)-1.66 to-1.37].Furthermore,both the number and rates of deaths and DALYs decreased over time.It was observed that females had lower rates compared to males.Among all regions,the high-income Asia Pacific region exhibited the highest ASIR(14.09/100,000;95%UI 12.30/100,000-16.39/100,000)in 2021,with an EPAC for ASIR<0 indicating decreasing trend over time for SAH ASIR.Oceania recorded the highest age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)and age-standardized DALYs rates among all regions in 2021 at values of respectively 8.61(95%UI 6.03-11.95)and 285.62(95%UI 209.42-379.65).The burden associated with SAH primarily affected individuals aged between 50-69 years old.Metabolic risks particularly elevated systolic blood pressure were identified as the main risk factors contributing towards increased disease burden associated with SAH when compared against environmental or occupational behavioral risks evaluated within the GBD framework.Conclusions:The burden of SAH varies by gender,age group,and geographical region.Although the ASRs have shown a decline over time,the burden of SAH remains significant,especially in regions with middle and low-middle SDI levels.High systolic blood pressure stands out as a key risk factor for SAH.More specific supportive measures are necessary to alleviate the global burden of SAH.展开更多
Objective This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above.Methods This study utilized Global Burden of Disease(GBD)1990-2050 prediction data to analyze...Objective This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above.Methods This study utilized Global Burden of Disease(GBD)1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population(aged 70 and above)in China from 1990 to 2050.It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections(LRI)in China under different scenarios.Results According to GBD predictions,the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average.The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020,but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050.Scenario-based predictions suggest that,under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination,the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050.Conclusion This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen.The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.展开更多
基金This work was supported by Energy Foundation through Grant G-0309-07094 and Shanghai Municipal Committee of Science and Technology through Grant 03DZ05052. Hai-Dong KAN was personally supported by Shanghai Rising-Star Program for Young Investigators (04QMX1402).
文摘Objective To investigate the effect of ambient air pollution on human health and the subsequent disabillty-adjusted life years （DALYs） lost in Shanghai. Methods We used epidemiology-based exposure-response functions to calculate the attributable number of cases due to air pollution in Shanghai in 2000, and then we estimated the corresponding DALYs lost in Shanghai based on unit DALYs values of the health consequences. Results Ambient air pollution caused 103 064 DALYs lost in Shanghai in 2000. Among all the health endpoints, premature deaths and chronic bronchitis predominated in the value of total DALYs lost. Conclusion The air pollution levels have an adverse effect on the general population health and strengthen the rationale for limiting the levels of air pollution in outdoor air in Shanghai.
文摘Economic burdens of injuries at the country level are unknown. In the current study we tried to explore the economic burden of DALYs loss due to injuries at the country level, then distributed according to the World Bank’s income groups. Methods: Data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization websites were used. Disability adjusted life year (DALY) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were used to estimate the economic loss for RTIs. Estimates of economic burdens were presented in tables and figures. Results: The total economic loss of the world during 2004 by means of DALYs due to injuries was 613. 144 billion USD, corresponding value of 848.205 billion USD in 2014. DALYs burden of injuries were concentrated (almost 75%) among low and lower middle income countries. Economic burdens of injuries were concentrated (over 80%) among higher middle and high income countries. Iraq had lost almost one-fifth of its GDP due to injuries. The USA had the highest amount of economic loss for injuries (169.136 billion USD) among all countries. Conclusion: Injuries are highly expensive and they account for heavy losses to GDP. Injury prevention should be prioritized in order to save such losses to life and economies.
文摘目的估算2019年北京市五环内因环境噪声导致的疾病负担及其空间分布特征。方法基于北京市五环内噪声地图模拟数据及分年龄段人口数据,采用世界卫生组织系统综述中的暴露-反应关系,利用伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life year,DALY)这一指标评估环境噪声造成的烦恼、睡眠障碍及缺血性心脏病的疾病负担,并探讨其空间分布趋势。结果2019年北京市五环内因环境噪声所致总DALY为629.1万人年,其中,寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)和健康寿命损失年(years lived with disability,YLD)分别为5.3和623.8万人年。环境噪声造成的烦恼疾病负担为291.2万人年,睡眠障碍疾病负担为303.3万人年,缺血性心脏病的疾病负担为34.6万人年。空间分布显示城市中心疾病负担明显高于四周,且与道路交通干线和人口密度分布相对一致。此外,对缺血性心脏病进行年龄分层分析发现,随着年龄的增长,噪声所致健康损害逐渐增加。结论北京市五环内环境噪声导致了较重的疾病负担,主要集中在城市中心和交通干线附近。未来噪声防治应加强对噪声污染的控制措施,特别是针对高风险区域和人群。
基金supported by the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2025AFB068)Jin-zhu Zhao was supported by the Wuhan Natural Science Foundation Exploration Program(Chen Guang Program,Grant No.2024040801020344).
文摘Objective Pulmonary arterial hypertension(PAH)poses a growing global health challenge,yet comprehensive epidemiological data remain limited.This study aims to assess the burden of PAH from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2040,addressing critical gaps in incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)across diverse socio-demographic contexts.Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 study,we analyzed PAH burden across 204 countries and territories,stratified by age,sex,region,and socio-demographic index(SDI).Age-standardized rates(per 100,000 populations)for incidence(ASIR),mortality(ASMR),and DALYs(ASDR)were calculated.Future trends were projected via a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results In 2021,there were 43,251(95%uncertainty interval[UI]:34,705,52,441)global incident PAH cases(age standardized incidence rate[ASIR]:0.52).From 1990 to 2021,PAH incidence rose by 85.62%,with the steepest increase in high-middle SDI regions(average annual percentage change[AAPC]:+0.19%).Despite a 48.36%rise in deaths,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)declined annually by 0.84%,reflecting improved management.Central Europe had the highest ASMR(1.06 per 100,000),while low SDI regions showed reduced ASIR(−0.31%AAPC),likely due to underdiagnosis.PAH caused 642,104 DALYs globally in 2021,with infants(<1 year)bearing the highest DALY rate.Projections indicate 75,000 annual cases by 2040,emphasizing an escalating burden.Conclusion PAH burden is increasing disproportionately in aging populations and high-middle SDI regions,while low SDI areas face underdiagnosis and healthcare disparities.Targeted interventions,equitable resource allocation,and enhanced diagnostic capacity are urgently needed to mitigate future PAH-related morbidity and mortality.
基金supported(in part)by the National Key Research and Development Program(2022YFC3600700)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2042024YXA008)the Young Top-Notch Talent Cultivation Program of Hubei Province(for Prof.Xian-Tao Zeng).
文摘Background:The burden of common urologic diseases,including benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH),urinary tract infections(UTI),urolithiasis,bladder cancer,kidney cancer,and prostate cancer,varies both geographically and within specific regions.It is essential to conduct a comprehensive and precise assessment of the global burden of urologic diseases.Methods:We obtained data on incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)for the aforementioned urologic diseases by age,sex,location,and year from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021.We analyzed the burden associated with urologic diseases based on socio-demographic index(SDI)and attributable risk factors.The trends in burden over time were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes(EAPC)along with a 95%confidence interval(CI).Results:In 2021,BPH and UTI were the leading causes of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),with rates of 5531.88 and 2782.59 per 100,000 persons,respectively.Prostate cancer was the leading cause of both age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR),with rates of 12.63 and 217.83 per 100,000 persons,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,there was an upward trend in ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and ASDR for UTI,while urolithiasis showed a downward trend.The middle and low-middle SDI quintile levels exhibited higher incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALYs related to UTI,urolithiasis,and BPH,while the high and high-middle SDI quintile levels showed higher rates for the three cancers.The burden of these 6 urologic diseases displayed diverse age and sex distribution patterns.In 2021,a high body mass index(BMI)contributed to 20.07%of kidney cancer deaths worldwide,while smoking accounted for 26.48%of bladder cancer deaths and 3.00%of prostate cancer deaths.Conclusions:The global burden of 6 urologic diseases presents a significant public health challenge.Urgent international collaboration is essential to advance the improvement of urologic disease management,encompassing the development of effective diagnostic screening tools and the implementation of high-quality prevention and treatment strategies.
基金supported by the Chinese Scholarship Council(202206240086,202406240158).
文摘Dear Editor,The global population of individuals aged 65 and older is projected to reach 1.6 billion by 2050[1].Given that urinary tumors,such as bladder cancer(BCa),kidney cancer(KCa),and prostate cancer(PCa),are more common in older adults,the burden on the healthcare system is increasing[2].Recently,Zi et al.[3]conducted a comprehensive assessment of the global burden of 6 urinary diseases from 1990 to 2021,based on the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study 2021.
文摘Background:Subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)is a subtype of hemorrhagic stroke characterized by high mortality and low rates of full recovery.This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of SAH between 1990 and 2021.Methods:Data on SAH incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2021.Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to evaluate changes in the age-standardized rate(ASR)of incidence and mortality,as well as trends in SAH burden.The relationship between disease burden and socio-demographic index(SDI)was also analyzed.Results:In 2021,the incidence of SAH was found to be 37.09%higher than that in 1990;however,the age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)showed a decreased[EAPC:-1.52;95%uncertainty interval(UI)-1.66 to-1.37].Furthermore,both the number and rates of deaths and DALYs decreased over time.It was observed that females had lower rates compared to males.Among all regions,the high-income Asia Pacific region exhibited the highest ASIR(14.09/100,000;95%UI 12.30/100,000-16.39/100,000)in 2021,with an EPAC for ASIR<0 indicating decreasing trend over time for SAH ASIR.Oceania recorded the highest age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)and age-standardized DALYs rates among all regions in 2021 at values of respectively 8.61(95%UI 6.03-11.95)and 285.62(95%UI 209.42-379.65).The burden associated with SAH primarily affected individuals aged between 50-69 years old.Metabolic risks particularly elevated systolic blood pressure were identified as the main risk factors contributing towards increased disease burden associated with SAH when compared against environmental or occupational behavioral risks evaluated within the GBD framework.Conclusions:The burden of SAH varies by gender,age group,and geographical region.Although the ASRs have shown a decline over time,the burden of SAH remains significant,especially in regions with middle and low-middle SDI levels.High systolic blood pressure stands out as a key risk factor for SAH.More specific supportive measures are necessary to alleviate the global burden of SAH.
基金supported by the National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding(No.BJ-2023-066).
文摘Objective This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above.Methods This study utilized Global Burden of Disease(GBD)1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population(aged 70 and above)in China from 1990 to 2050.It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections(LRI)in China under different scenarios.Results According to GBD predictions,the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average.The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020,but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050.Scenario-based predictions suggest that,under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination,the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050.Conclusion This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen.The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
