为提升地震预测方法评价的标准化和应用的规范化,依托国家重点研发计划尝试把CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability)移植到中国,建立中国CSEP检验中心。自主研发了加卸载响应比(LURR)、地壳振动、态矢量和地...为提升地震预测方法评价的标准化和应用的规范化,依托国家重点研发计划尝试把CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability)移植到中国,建立中国CSEP检验中心。自主研发了加卸载响应比(LURR)、地壳振动、态矢量和地震综合概率预测模块;引进了国外的图像信息(PI)、相对强度(RI)、传染型余震序列(ETAS)预测模型并完成模块研发;遴选出Molchan检验、R值评分、N值检验和ROC检验等国际认可的地震预报效能评价方法,以集成方式搭建运行平台。作为开放性检验中心,通过不断纳入新的算法,着力提升地震预测能力、推进地震预测实践,将地震预报业务中常用的地震发生率指数、小震调制比、b值等预测方法纳入到中心运行。中心的软件系统既能够完成回顾性预测检验,又能够实现前瞻性预测分析,可为现有预测方法提供运行环境和技术支持。展开更多
0 INTRODUCTION To relieve the short supply of suitable land for residing,cultivating,and commerce,it is accepted to reclaim land from lakes,river estuaries,and coastal regions in many countries(Mancini et al.,2020).Th...0 INTRODUCTION To relieve the short supply of suitable land for residing,cultivating,and commerce,it is accepted to reclaim land from lakes,river estuaries,and coastal regions in many countries(Mancini et al.,2020).The large-scale reclamation activities have an irreversible effect on the mico-geomorphology and hydrodynamic system of seasonally flooded areas(Zhang et al.,2019;Yu et al.,2018).For example,coastal regions reclaimed extended the groundwater flow paths,as well as created groundwater level rise,resulting in water-logging in the reclaimed area(Hu et al.,2008).Similar changes in groundwater flow systems may alter groundwater-lake water interactions,and it can ultimately affect the water cycle in the lake areas.However,such detailed studies are presently lacking.In addition,natural exchanges between the lake and groundwater systems can be strongly affected by physical hydrological processes(Javadzadeh et al.,2020),chemical properties(Kamtchueng et al.,2015),and bioto behavior(Hancock et al.,2005).展开更多
文摘为提升地震预测方法评价的标准化和应用的规范化,依托国家重点研发计划尝试把CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability)移植到中国,建立中国CSEP检验中心。自主研发了加卸载响应比(LURR)、地壳振动、态矢量和地震综合概率预测模块;引进了国外的图像信息(PI)、相对强度(RI)、传染型余震序列(ETAS)预测模型并完成模块研发;遴选出Molchan检验、R值评分、N值检验和ROC检验等国际认可的地震预报效能评价方法,以集成方式搭建运行平台。作为开放性检验中心,通过不断纳入新的算法,着力提升地震预测能力、推进地震预测实践,将地震预报业务中常用的地震发生率指数、小震调制比、b值等预测方法纳入到中心运行。中心的软件系统既能够完成回顾性预测检验,又能够实现前瞻性预测分析,可为现有预测方法提供运行环境和技术支持。
基金supported by the Research Program for Geological Processes,Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin(No.CUGCJ1702)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41630318 and 41521001)。
文摘0 INTRODUCTION To relieve the short supply of suitable land for residing,cultivating,and commerce,it is accepted to reclaim land from lakes,river estuaries,and coastal regions in many countries(Mancini et al.,2020).The large-scale reclamation activities have an irreversible effect on the mico-geomorphology and hydrodynamic system of seasonally flooded areas(Zhang et al.,2019;Yu et al.,2018).For example,coastal regions reclaimed extended the groundwater flow paths,as well as created groundwater level rise,resulting in water-logging in the reclaimed area(Hu et al.,2008).Similar changes in groundwater flow systems may alter groundwater-lake water interactions,and it can ultimately affect the water cycle in the lake areas.However,such detailed studies are presently lacking.In addition,natural exchanges between the lake and groundwater systems can be strongly affected by physical hydrological processes(Javadzadeh et al.,2020),chemical properties(Kamtchueng et al.,2015),and bioto behavior(Hancock et al.,2005).
