摘要
上海市老龄化程度和速度在全国位居前列,老年人口的规模和结构呈现出新的特点和趋势,老年群体的需求也呈现多样性和层次性的特点,这对养老服务提出了更高的要求。本文从政策制定、需求分析和供给模式等角度发现目前上海多层次养老服务体系存在供需失衡和数字鸿沟等问题未能解决。通过灰色预测模型对上海市总人口和老年人口的数量进行预测,判断未来的老年人群体增长情况,至2030年老年人占比将接近50%,将面对巨大的养老压力。因此本文从多元主体责任、多元资本支持和完善法律覆盖三个方面提出建议。
The degree and speed of aging in Shanghai rank among the top in the country. The scale and struc-ture of the elderly population show new characteristics and trends, and the needs of the elderly group also show the characteristics of diversity and hierarchy, which puts forward higher require-ments for elderly care services. Require. From the perspectives of policy formulation, demand analysis and supply model, this paper finds that the current problems such as supply- demand im-balance and digital divide in Shanghai’s multi-level elderly care service system have not been re-solved. The gray prediction model is used to predict the total population and the number of elderly people in Shanghai, and to judge the growth of the elderly population in the future. By 2030, the proportion of elderly people will be close to 50%, and they will face huge pension pressure. There-fore, this paper puts forward suggestions from three aspects: multi-subject responsibility, mul-ti-capital support and perfect legal coverage.
出处
《应用数学进展》
2022年第10期6879-6888,共10页
Advances in Applied Mathematics
