摘要
本文分析了辽宁省鞍山地区秋白菜收获期气象条件,确定不发生冻害保证率为90％的出现日期为10月28日,前5～10天作为白菜适收期。建立了多元线性回归预报方程:y=51.85+0.11x_1-0.15x_2-0.06x_3+0.33x_4,误差为±6天时,历史拟合率为74.3％,以1990年为例预报比实况仅差4天。
The meteorological factors in the harvesting period of Chinese cabbage in Anshan City were analysed. Before Oct. 28, the percentage of no occurrence of frost was 90% and the cabbage should be harvested 5-10 days earlier. A forecasting regression equation was established as: y=51.85+0.11x_1-0.15x_2 -0.06x_3 +0. 33x_4,the error was± 6days.The historical adaptability was 74. 3%. Taking 1990 for example, the forecasting differed from the fact by 4 days only.
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
1992年第Z05期44-46,共3页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
关键词
白菜
气象条件
预测
收获期
multiple regression
Chinese cabbage
harvesting date forecasting
