摘要
为研究我国近百年气温的长程相关规律 ,通过对我国近百年月平均温度序列的非趋势波动分析 ,初步得出以下几个结论 :我国近百年气温存在内在的长程相关性 ;标度指数α 0 .6 6 ;尽管大于 18a尺度区间的α与小于 18a尺度区间的α有所不同 ,但可能由于所分析的温度序列长度受到限制 ,没有足够充分的理由认为 18a是个交叉点。
To study the specific law and the scale range of long-range correlation,series of average monthly anomaly over China from Jan. 1873 to Nov.1990 is analyzed with the detrended fluctuation analysis. The preliminary results show as follows. Firstly,there exists the long-range correlation in the average monthly temperature fluctuations. Secondly,the temperature fluctuations can be characterized by a long-range power-law correlation with an exponent =0.66.Thirdly,the scale of 18 years can not be regarded as a crossover for the limit of the length of the series,though the exponent at large scale of more than 18 years is different from that of less than 18 years.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第2期199-204,共6页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家气象中心自建项目ZK2 0 0 2ASZ 0 7资助
关键词
温度序列
气候变化
非趋势波动分析
长程相关性
Temperature series Climatic change Detrended fluctuation analysis Long-range correlation
