摘要
采用多目标情景分析方法和综合评判方法,从面域尺度对西北地区2010、2020年不同情景方案下的水资源承载力进行了预测分析和评价。预测结果表明,西北地区社会经济用水将在现在基础上继续增加,但增加幅度有限,通过提高用水效率、调整产业结构、控制灌溉面积发展等综合措施,西北地区未来可以实现逐步水资源供需平衡及生态环境和社会经济协调发展的目标。综合评价结果认为,未来西北地区水资源承载力状况将逐步得到改善,但中短期内仍不可能达到良好可承载的程度,其中以A1+B1+C2发展情景方案为最优方案。
Taking Northwest China as a study area, a new way of WRCC is explored study by combining the multi-criteria scenario analysis model, comprehensive evaluation model and other sectoral models based on the synthetic analysis of the complex system of water-socioeconomy-ecoenvironment. The first multi-objective analysis model is applied to estimate WRCC of Northwest China in 2010 and 2020 in different scenarios. Then a comprehensive index of WRCC is designed and calculated to assess different policy alternatives by evaluating the quality of WRCC with comprehensive evaluation model. The assessment of the models indicates that the situation of WRCC in Northwest China will be improved evidently in the future and the goals of water supply and demand balance can be achieved by taking such countermeasures as renovating ecological environment,developing water-saving technology and adjusting industrial structure etc. The A1+B1+C2 scenario is proved to be a preferred alternative, while reducing the rate of water resources development, improving the efficiency of water use and controlling population growth will be the key factors improving the water resources carrying capacity.
出处
《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第3期103-106,共4页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni
基金
中科院知识创新工程资助项目(KZCX1-10-03 KZCX1-09-02)
中科院"百人计划"资助项目
