摘要
根据中国目前油田的采出程度、综合含水率和近期石油产量变化特点,认为:①东部区老油田总体处于开发中晚期,进入产量递减阶段;②中部区油田处在开发早期,产量稳中有升,但增长幅度有限;③西部区油田处在开发早中期,今后增产潜力相当大;④海域油田总体处于产量上升阶段,产量增长幅度大。今后石油储量增长有望保持在较高的水平上,但新增储量品质下降,勘探和开采难度会有所加大。针对中国未来储量增长幅度,选用"储量 产量"双向控制法预测今后石油产量的增长趋势,预计2005年至2015年产量将继续保持稳中有升,石油产量有望达到1.70亿～1.73亿t。
The Chinese recent oil output change characteristic shows that: ①oil fields in the eastern region generally entered in mid-late development stage, production is successively decreased; ②oil fields in the central region is in early development stage, production is steadily increased, with limited increasing range; ③oil fields in the western region is in early-mid stage, with huge increasing potential in the future; ④oil fields in the offshore is generally in an increasing stage, output has a great increasing range. In the future, it is expected that reserves increase will be hopefully kept on a higher level, but the quality of new added reserves is to become poor, and explore and development is difficulty for going up. The life model simulation method for Chinese oilfields and “reserve-production” dual controlled method have been selected to predict the increase trend of oil output in the future in China. It is expected that in the duration from 2005 to 2015, oil production will keep continuously steady increase; hopefully, reach the range will be from 170 million tons to 173 million tons.
出处
《石油勘探与开发》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期84-87,共4页
Petroleum Exploration and Development
关键词
石油
产量
储量
现状
预测
petroleum
production
reserves
situation
prediction
