摘要
改革开放前,我国人口数量和人口密度的增加推动了经济增长,人口与经济增长具有长期稳定关系;改革开放后,大部分地区的人口逐渐趋向于成为经济增长中的一个外生变量。在1953-2000年间,我国经济发展相对落后地区(以西藏为代表)的人口与经济增长存在长期稳定关系,人口数量和人口密度的增加对经济增长有正的效应。总体来看,在我国经济发展的较低阶段,人口与经济增长一般存在长期稳定关系,但当经济发展到较高阶段时,人口与经济增长可能不存在稳定关系。
Cointegration tests, Error correction model are used to examine the long-run relationship between the size of population and GDP, the density of population and GDP in the case of China and five provinces. The results suggest that long-run relationship has existed in undeveloped provinces, such as Tibet; our results also tend to support the view that higher population has spurred economic growth in the early stage of economic development in China. After 1978,the size and density of population tend to become a more independent (exogenous) role in the economic growth process in China.
出处
《西北人口》
2004年第3期15-18,共4页
Northwest Population Journal
关键词
经济增长
人口数量
人口密度
协整检验
误差校正模型
Economic growth
the size of population
the density of population
Cointegration test
Error correction model
