摘要
建立了能源-环境-经济耦合的非线性动态规划模型——中国MARKAL-MACRO模型,并以此对中国未来能源发展与碳排放的基准方案以及碳减排对中国能源系统的可能影响进行研究。模拟结果表明:若从2030年开始减排,减排率为10％～46％时碳边际减排成本在45～254美元/t之间;实施碳减排将导致化石能源等影子价格的上升、各种能源服务需求的下降,还将引起终端以及一次能源消费结构的变化。最终能源消费量将由于燃料结构的优化和能源服务需求的减少而减少,一次能源在高减排率下煤的比重将大大下降,而低碳和无碳能源特别是核能的比重将大幅度上升。中国未来碳减排的空间是有限的。
China MARKAL-MACRO model, an integrated energy, environment and economy dynamic non-linear programming model, was developed to generate a reference scenario for China's future energy development and carbon emission and to analy2e the potential impact of carbon emission reductions on the energy system. The results showed that China's marginal abatement costs for carbon are in the range of 45 - 254 USD/t for abatement rates of 10% -- 46% starting from the year 2030. Carbon emission reductions will raise the fossil fuel shadow price, decrease the energy service demand, and change the final and primary energy consumption and their mixes. Carbon emission reductions would reduce the final energy consumption due to the improved fuel mix and reduced energy service demand. The share of coal would be greatly reduced while the shares of low- and non-carbon energy sources especially nuclear, would be greatly increased in the total primary energy consumption with a high abatement rate. It is conduded that the characteristics of China's energy resources would restrict her carbon abatement potential.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第3期342-346,共5页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
