摘要
在项目决策前期对项目了解很少的情况下,一般对项目给出一个基本的风险综合评价数值,作为决策的依据。在建立工程项目投资风险评价指标体系的基础上,提出了将人工神经网络应用于工程项目投资风险评价中的综合评价方法,建立了人工神经网络模型,较好的解决了以往的评价方法中存在的人为确定权重的不足。最后进行了实证分析,在此基础上进行了敏感性分析,得到了比较好的评价结果。
Before a decision-maker decides whether to invest in a project, he usually make a general evaluation about the risk. Based on the establishment of risk evaluation index system about engineering project investment,introduces a new method, which applies the artificial neural network(ANN) into risk evaluation, and constructs a artificial neural network model that can solve the deficiencies of the other methods. At last, this model is applied to the real case of a engineering project to evaluate its risk level, and the sensitivity is analysed. Simulation result shows that this model does not need defining weight number and has been proved satisfactory.
出处
《基建优化》
2004年第1期11-14,共4页
Optimization of Capital Construction
基金
建设部软科学项目(2002-1-27)
河北省计委资助项目。
