摘要
备件消耗标准的预测与制定是装备维修保障有效性和经济性的基础性工作;运用平稳随机过程理论,给出了MA(q),MA(p),ARMA(p,q),3种线性预测模型;考虑了与备件相关的多种因素,对模型进行修正,建立了装备备件消耗标准的预测模型;给出了某基地某特种零部件消耗标准预测的一个应用实例;该模型可用于备件的定货、储存和供应等管理决策.
The forecasting and calibrating of spare consumption standard is a fundamental work to equipment repairing quarantine. By using the theory of the stable stochastic process, the MA(q),MA(p),ARMA(p,q)models are present. The factors relevant to weapon's equipment spare are discussed in the paper. A consumption standard model of weapon's equipment spare is set up. An example of spare forecasting for a base shows that the model for this problem is suitable and it can be used in the equipment management.
出处
《装备指挥技术学院学报》
2004年第1期1-4,共4页
Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command & Technology
基金
部委级资助项目
