摘要
投影寻踪方法是一类处理高维问题,特别是高维非正态问题的新兴统计方法。通过普查北半球500 hPa、100 hPa、北太平洋海温以及500 hPa环流特征量与影响福建热带气旋年、季频数的相关,采用逐步回归筛选预测因子。然后,应用投影寻踪回归方法的基本思想和算法,建立福建热带气旋年季频数的PPR预测模型。结果表明,PPR模型的预测效果明显优于逐步回归预测模型,对福建热带气旋年季频数具有较好的预测能力。
The projection pursuit algorithm is a kind of up-to-date statistic algorithms which deals with the height dimensional problem, especially the negate normality problem. The forecasting factors are screened out by stepwise regression through general overhauling correlation coefficient between the 500 hPa、100 hPa geopotential heights of the Northern Hemisphere、 the sea surface temperature(SST) of the North Pacific Ocean and the circumfluent features of 500hPa geopotential heights and annual, seasonal numbers of tropical cyclone affecting Fujian. Then, a forecasting model for annual and seasonal numbers of tropical cyclone affecting Fujian is proposed using the original idea and its implement algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR). The results show that the forecasting precision of the PPR model is much better than that of stepwise regression (SR) model.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期443-448,共6页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家科技部项目2001DIB20116资助
关键词
热带气旋
投影寻踪
预测模型
tropical cyclone
projection pursuit
forecasting model
