摘要
2003年三季度末和四季度,全国大范围内出现“油荒”。分析表明,石油需求增长强劲是造成油品资源供应紧张的根本原因;其他原因还包括:SARS疫情造成了成品油供求在时间上的错位;原油供应脱节造成成品油产量难以大幅度提高;成品油定价机制存在缺陷,价格杠杆难以调节市场供求:国家打击油品走私等取得成效,投机商变换方式使市场“雪上加霜”。通过进一步分析可以看出,重化工业等领域的快速发展及电力供应不足又是拉动石油需求加快增长的两大主要原因。鉴于石油需求与经济规模、经济结构和经济质量密切相关,预计未来几年,中国经济结构有向高耗能和高耗油领域倾斜的趋势,电力等能源也依然会呈现供应偏紧的状况。为此建议:在国际市场油源充足的情况下,鼓励资源进口,适度保护国内石油资源,完善国内成品油市场机制,以避免“油荒”的再度发生。
There was a nationwide 'oil shortage' in China in the third and fourth quarters of 2003. Analysis shows the strong growth in demand for oil is the fundamental reason for the shortage in supply of oil products. Other reasons include the disruption in supply of oil products caused by the SARS epidemic, inadequate growth oil product production because of a shortage in crude oil supplies, shortcomings in the pricing mechanism for oil products, and difficulties in using price leverage to adjust market supply and demand. Further analysis reveals that the rapid development of the heavy and chemical industries and the inadequacy of electric power supplies are the two main reasons for the stimulation of oil demand. Given the close relationship between economic scale, structure and quality and oil demand, the trend in China's economic structure in the coming years will be towards a concentration on the high energy consumption and high oil consumption fields. Since the country is still short of energy supplies such as electric power, it is proposed that import of oil resources should be encouraged as long as supplies on the international oil market are adequate to appropriately protect domestic oil resources, and that domestic market mechanisms for oil products should be perfected to avoid the recurrence of 'oil shortage.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2004年第1期25-28,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
