摘要
利用江苏省气象台1954～2000年的梅雨期降水资料,采用趋势分析方法,对江苏省的梅雨变化特征进行了分析研究。结果表明:近47年来江苏省梅雨量年际变化大致可以分为少雨和多雨两个阶段;梅雨的区域分布特征是苏南及沿江地带梅雨量的年波动不及淮北地区;各年份梅雨持续的天数相差极为悬殊,而其降水极值除个别年份外大多低于800mm;梅雨量的丰歉常常决定了江苏省的旱涝总趋势,特别的丰梅年和枯梅年对江苏省农业生产和社会经济发展都带来显著的负面影响。
Based on rainfall data of Jiangsu meteorological stations in plum rain period from 1954 to 2000, variation characteristics of plum rain are analyzed by means of trend analysis The results show that the annual change of rainfall of plum rains in recent 47 years in Jiangsu province can be divided into two stages, viz rainless stage and pluvial stage The characteristic of regional distribution of plum rains is that the fluctuation of plum rainfall in southern Jiangsu and along the Huaihe River is not as large as that in region on the northern side of Huaihe River The durations of plum rain in each year are much different The maximum precipitation is less than 800 mm except several years The general trend of drought and flood is determined by the amount of plum rainfall Both abundant and poor years of plum rain bring about great negative effects on agriculture production and social economic development in Jiangsu province
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2003年第2期58-62,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
中科院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1-SW-12)
关键词
梅雨
年际变化
极值
趋势分析
江苏
plum rain
annual change
extremes
trend analysis
Jiangsu
