摘要
梅汛期降水是引发浙江省洪涝灾害的重要原因之一。首先,应用相关分析,对浙江省境内57个气象观测站29年来(1971-1999)梅汛期降水的空间分布特征进行了分析,论述了省内不同地区梅汛期降水的长期变化规律。分析发现,这一时期的梅汛期降水明显呈现缓慢增加的趋势,并有着6年和3-4年的显著周期,这说明梅汛期降水可能与ENSO存在着一定的联系。最后,探讨了梅汛期降水异常与洪涝灾害之间的关系。
The precipitation in plum rains and flood season is one of important reasons that result in flood disaster in Zhejiang Province. In this article, the spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation in this season during 1971-1999 at 57 meteorological observing stations in Zhejiang Province were firstly investigated by means of the correlation analysis. Then the long-tern change rule of the precipitation in the season in different districts was discussed. The results indicate that, during this term, the precipitation in the season showed an evident slowly increasing trend, with prominent periods of 6 years and 3-4 years, which shows that it probably has some relations to ENSO. Furthermore, the linkage between the anomaly of the precipitation in the season and flood disaster was also studied.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第5期69-74,共6页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
浙江省科研基金资助项目(2004C33082)
关键词
梅汛期
降水
主相关型
奇异谱分析
洪涝灾害
plum rains and flood season
precipitation
primary correlation type
singular spectral analysis
flood disaster
