摘要
根据我国不同煤矿煤炭产量变化的特点 ,分别采用了一元线性回归、自回归模型和干预分析模型对国有重点、国有地方及乡镇煤矿的产量进行了预测 ,提高了预测精度 ;并根据预测结果与需求预测相比较 ,得出本世纪初的十几年内 ,我国煤炭市场供给将出现较大缺口 ,应引起有关部门的高度重视。
Based on the output changes of different coal mines,one variable linear regression model,autoregressive model and intervention analysis model are applied to forecast the output of state-owned important mines,state-owned local-run mines and town-village-run coal mines.These models improve the precision of the forecast.Comparing the forecasted results of coal output with coal demand,the conclusion is drawn that the coal supply of coal-market of China will be insufficient in the first several decades of the 21th century,which should be paid much attention to by decision-makers.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2003年第11期5-8,共4页
China Mining Magazine
