摘要
正确预测房地产的发展情况可从指导房地产业有序开发。本文利用灰色系统理论建立预测模型,预测未来4年我国房地产的发展和销售情况,为政府管理部门、房地产开发企业、金融部门和其他房地产业相关部门的决策提供科学依据,并对预测结果进行了分析和评价,结果表明房地产开发过热已经成为事实,并且,至少近2-3年这种趋势会更加明显,必须引起房地产相关部门的高度重视。
Correct estimating of the development of real estate can guide real estate industry to develop orderly. This paper makes use of the gray system theories to establish predicting model, and predicts the development and distribution of real estate in China in the future 4 years. It offers scientific basis for decisionmaking of manage department of government, realestate development company, finance department and other department related to realestate industry. This paper also analyses and evaluates estimation result. It is shown that the real estate development is actually overheat. Moreover, it will be more distinct. So it must be concerned by the department in charge of real estate.
关键词
房地产
灰色系统
预测
模型
real estate
gray system
estimation
model
