摘要
针对中长期电量预测中时间跨度大、电力需求增长不确定的特性,根据不同时期的增长率,运用灰色理论进行优化分段预测,同时引入组合模型的概念,建立了以残差平方和最小为目标函数的组合优化模型,并运用二次规划法求解.算例证明,该方法能得到较高精度.
There are some characters in mid-long term electric capacity forecasting, such as longer time and uncertain demand increase. According to the growth rate in different period, a grey model was used to segmented forecast. Meanwhile, a combined model was proposed, which is based on minimizing the squares sum of the residues, and the quadratic programming was used to get the solution. The example shows the method can get more accurate results.
出处
《上海交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第9期1355-1357,1371,共4页
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金(50177017)
