摘要
利用一种可以考虑天气环流形势场特征的MOS预报因子处理方法进行预报因子的处理,以T106L19模式的预报产品为基础建立云南省32个基本站点的降水和气温预报方程,并与不考虑天气形势场的因子所建立的MOS方程的预报结果进行对比。结果表明,MOS预报的结果对预报因子的变化很敏感,在考虑天气形势后的MOS预报对云南各站点的降水和气温的预报效果均有显著的改进,说明MOS预报因子的处理方法和选取对改进MOS预报效果具有重要的意义。
A new method of forming MOS(Model Output Statistic)forecast factors to improved prediction accuracy was given in this paper. The result show that the method can significantly improve the MOS forecast skill for precipitation and temperature of 32 stations in Yunnan. But the MOS forecasts for precipitation are more skillful than that for temperature in Yunnan. At the same time, the test display prediction accuracy of MOS is sensitive to the forecast factor select. And considering circulation background and making a optimal forecast factors is very important to improve the performance of MOS forecast.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第4期405-409,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
中国气象局重点项目"逐级指导预报产品研究"
云南科技攻关项目(2001NG43)资助
