摘要
用统计方法分析了中国北方地区冬小麦播种期 0～ 1 0 0cm土壤底墒与当年 7～ 9月的降水量、可能蒸散量 ,水分盈亏量和年降水量和前一年 1 0月至当年 9月降水量、多年平均降水量、径流量以及径流率等 8个影响因子的相关关系 ,建立了计算冬小麦播种期土壤底墒的各单因子统计模型和不同F检验水平下的多因子统计模型 ,并对各统计模型进行了精度比较。选取其中一个模型 ,计算了北方冬小麦区 94个站点 1 96 1～ 2 0 0 0年历年冬小麦播种期的土壤底墒值 ,初步得到了北方冬小麦播种期土壤底墒的变化规律 。
Based on the methods of statistics, the correlations between 0～100cm soil moisture in seedtime of winter wheat and rainfall during July to September , crop reference evapotranspiration during July to September ,difference between rainfall and crop reference evapotranspiration during July to September ,annual rainfall, rainfall during last October to this September, mean annual rainfall, annual runoff and rate of annual run off were analyzed for north of China. The statistical models calculating 0～100cm soil moisture in seedtime of winter wheat for single factor and multiple factors with several F test levels were established. The degrees of accuracy of these models were compared. The 0～100cm soil moisture in seedtime of winter wheat in 94 stations from 1961 to 2000 in north of China were calculated using one of these models. The patterns of change of the 0～100cm soil moisture in seedtime of winter wheat were analyzed. The idea and method calculating and predicting 0～100cm soil moisture in seedtime of winter wheat were provided.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期85-91,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关项目"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究"( 2 0 0 1BA5 0 9B14 )
