摘要
科尔沁左翼后旗位于科尔沁沙地东部农牧交错带 ,生态环境复杂、脆弱 ,资源、人口和环境的协调发展至关重要 ,其土地承载力状况是协调三者关系的重要依据。本文应用系统动力学原理 ,以 1995年为起始年份建立了系统动力学模型 (SD模型 ) ,包括人口、土地资源、种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业和消费等 7个子系统。选择 3种人口增长速度和 3种营养水平组成 9种方案 ,通过模型的运行预测了科左后旗未来 5 0年人口的动态变化和最大土地资源承载力 ,并对 1995～ 2 0 0 0年实际的人口发展状况和生态状况进行了讨论。研究显示 ,科左后旗土地承载力 4 6 71～ 74 5 1万人 ,不同的方案达到最大承载力的时间不同 ,指出控制人口增长是实现经济环境协调发展的必要条件 ,科左后旗的实际人口增长控制较好 。
Keerqinzuoyihouqi is located in agriculture grazing ecotone in northeast Keerqin lands. On account of the complex and fragile environment, it is important to harmonize the relationship among population, resources and environment. Land sources capacity became important in settling the problem. In this paper, a dynamic model was established, including population, land resource, planting, husbandry, fishery and consumption subsystems. Across 9 scenario, i.e.,3 development rate * 3 nutrition level , the model predicts changes of population and maximum land resource capacity in the future 50 years. The actual population increase and ecological environments were further discussed. The results showed that the land capacity for population ranges from 467,100 to 745,100 and the intervals to maximum capacity are different among different scenarios. So population control is necessary for economic development and environment protection. In fact the population inscrease rate is rational. The environment questions is caused by irrational development.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期23-28,共6页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (2 0 0 2CB1115 0 6)
中国科学院知识创新工程项目 (SCXZY0 102
KZCXZ -SW -3 2 0 -3 )
