摘要
水资源承载力是一个地区持续发展过程中各种自然资源承载力的重要组成部分,对地区综合发展和规划非常重要.针对宝鸡市水资源系统所具有的复杂系统特征,采用系统动力学原理和方法,在对其进行结构和因果关系分析的基础上,将水资源承载力系统划分为人口、农业、工业、水污染、水资源5个子系统,通过各层次的反馈关系,建立水资源承载力变化的系统动力学模型,并通过策略模拟试验了政策变化对水资源承载力的影响.通过对模型模拟结果的比较,提出了适合的经济发展方案和建议.
Water resources carring capacity is an important component of a variety of nature carring capacity in the course of regional sustainable development,and plays an important role in regional development planning. Based on the local system characteristics of water resources in Baoji, system dynamics （SD） model was used to simulate the water resources carrying capacity in the present paper. According to systematic theory and cause-effect analysis of the complicated system, SD model of water resources carrying capacity was established and divided into 5 sub-systems. The policy effects on the water resources carrying capacity were tested through policy control factors. Finally, on the ground of the simulation results, the best scheme and some suggestions were put forward.
出处
《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第1期72-77,共6页
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家科技部"西部开发"重大项目(2004BA901A13)
关键词
宝鸡市
水资源承载力
系统动力学模型
Baoji city
water resources carrying capacity
system dynamics model
