摘要
利用最优化订正法 ,通过对MAPS数值降水预报进行订正 ,制作长江上游六大流域短期面雨量预报。 2 0 0 2年 6～ 1 0月业务试验表明 ,长江上游六大流域平均的常规降水面雨量预报准确率比MAPS高 1 5%左右 ,强降水面雨量预报准确率比MAPS高 1 9%左右 ,强降水天气过程的击中率为 4 8%左右 。
By using the optimum correction method,the forecasting of short-rang area mean rainfall of the six drainage areas in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River is done based on correcting the MAPS precipitation numerical forecasting. The operational experiments from June to October show that accuracy of routine mean area rainfall is higher about 15% than that of MAPS,and accuracy of heavy mean area rainfall is higher about 18% than that of MAPS , and the percentage of hits is about 48%.So,it has good effect.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期31-33,共3页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象局三峡保障服务项目资助
关键词
长江上游
最优化订正法
MAPS
面雨量预报
降水天气过程
optimum correction method MAPS the six drainage areas on the upper reaches of the Changjiang River mean area rainfall
