摘要
世界范围的各年龄组甲肝抗体流行率可分为6种流行模式。在我国可初步分为3种:北京式,上海式,广州式。Schenzle于1979年提出了一种感染力为Logistic函数的简单催化模型,本文作者又给出了感染力为线性函数,二次函数时的简单催化模型,结合实际资料,对这3种流行模式进行了拟合,经拟合优度x^2-检验,效果良好。通过对模型的分析,得出了70年代后上海市的甲肝感染力比北京、广州要低的结果。而流行率模式的不同是由于感染力函数不同所致。
There are six epidemic models of hepatitis A in the world. In China, there are three models: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou models. In 1979, Schenzle proposed a modified simple catalytic, model whose infectivity force is a Logistic function. We made a modified model with the infectivity force of a linear or conic function. According to the actual data,the authors have fitted three epidemic models.The results are satifactory as proved by the xz-test of goodness of fit. The analysis of the models indicates that the force of infection has been lower in Shanghai than in Beijing and Guangzhou since 1970- An interesting finding is thai the difference between the three epidemic models is due to the function of infective force of hepatitis A.
出处
《第四军医大学学报》
1992年第1期32-35,共4页
Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University
关键词
甲型肝炎
流行病学
流行模式
hepatitis A
epidemiology
epidemic models
ameliorative catalytic models
