摘要
经济增长与碳排放脱钩对于实现国家自主贡献至关重要,但是目标和行动掌握在各国手中,且当前贸易保护主义抬头也增加了减排的不确定性。基于2000—2019年6个附件Ⅰ国家以及基础四国的样本组数据,研究了经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态并分析贸易在减排中的作用。结果表明:首先,6个附件Ⅰ国家的脱钩状态大多趋于稳定的弱脱钩,并逐步转向强脱钩;在基础四国中,中国和南非的脱钩能力相对较强,巴西和印度的脱钩能力相对较弱;其次,贸易开放显著降低了这些典型国家的碳排放,这一实证结果提供了反对贸易保护主义的证据;此外,对于基础四国而言,经济增长和工业化与碳排放之间显示为正相关,明确了其发展与减排之间的矛盾;最后,提出了针对性的减排政策建议。
Decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions is critical for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions.However,the targets and actions are in the hands of individual countries,and the current rise in trade protectionism has also increased the uncertainty of emission reductions.Based on data from six Annex I countries and the BASIC countries from 2000 to 2019,this study examines the decoupling status of economic growth from carbon emissions,and analyzes the role of trade in emission reductions.The results show that,firstly,the decoupling status of the six Annex I countries mostly tends towards a stable weak decoupling,gradually transitioning to a strong decoupling.Among the BASIC countries,China and South Africa have relatively strong decoupling capabilities,while Brazil and India have relatively weak decoupling capabilities.Secondly,trade openness significantly reduces carbon emissions in these sample countries,providing empirical evidence against trade protectionism.In addition,for the BASIC countries,economic growth and industrialization show a positive correlation with carbon emissions,highlighting the contradiction between development and emission reduction.Finally,targeted emission reduction policy recommendations are proposed.
作者
卢治霖
王丽丽
潘勋章
郇嘉嘉
庞军
LU Zhilin;WANG Lili;PAN Xunzhang;HUAN Jiajia;PANG Jun(Energy Development Research Institute,China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510700,Guangdong Province,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Renmin University of China,Haidian District,Beijing 100872,China;Grid Planning&Research Center,Guangdong Power Grid Corporation,Guangzhou 510220,Guangdong Province,China)
出处
《全球能源互联网》
北大核心
2026年第2期183-194,共12页
Journal of Global Energy Interconnection
基金
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(GDKJXM20222448)。
关键词
碳减排
减排立场
贸易开放
基础四国
Tapio脱钩
emission reduction
mitigation position
trade openness
BASIC countries
Tapio decoupling
