摘要
目的分析2004-2023年佳木斯市主要呼吸道传染病的流行特征及趋势,为佳木斯市呼吸道传染病的防控提供科学依据。方法收集2004-2023年佳木斯市麻疹、肺结核、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、猩红热及水痘6种主要呼吸道传染病发病数据和人口学数据。采用SPSS 27.0软件,用χ^(2)检验进行率的比较,采用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件分析发病率的时间变化趋势,以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2004-2023年佳木斯市6种呼吸道传染病共报告56994例,年均发病率为117.51/10万,2004-2019年总体发病率趋势先下降(APC=-1.38%,P=0.091)后上升(APC=19.64%,P=0.267),趋势变化均无统计学意义;在2020-2023年总体变化趋势比较平稳,趋势变化无统计学意义(APC=APPC=42.10%,P=0.349);2004-2019年肺结核发病率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.49%,P=0.009),流行性感冒(AAPC=23.12%,P=0.030)、水痘(APC=APPC=6.09%,P=0.003)发病率呈上升趋势;2020-2023年流行性腮腺炎发病率呈下降趋势(APC=APPC=-42.07%,P=0.044)。男性发病率高于女性(χ^(2)=3889.98,P<0.001);肺结核发病主要集中在20~<70岁人群,占比为85.13%,其他5种呼吸道传染病发病人群以儿童和青少年为主,占比为70.13%;高发于冬春季节,在11至12月、2至4月有2个发病高峰期。结论佳木斯市主要呼吸道传染病发病率较平稳,预防季节性流感暴发是流感防控的重点;肺结核治疗的依从性和高负担,是佳木斯市防控呼吸道传染病的难点;针对疫苗可预防的疾病,提升目标人群覆盖率。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of major respiratory infectious diseases in Jiamusi City from 2004 to 2023,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases in Jiamusi City.Methods The incidence data and demographic data of 6 major respiratory infectious diseases including measles,tuberculosis,influenza,mumps,scarlet fever and chickenpox in Jiamusi City from 2004 to 2023 were collected.SPSS 27.0 software was used to compare the rate withχ^(2)test.Joinpoint(4.9.1.0 version)software was used to analyze the time trend of the incidence rate.The difference P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results From 2004 to 2023,a total of 56994 cases of 6 respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Jiamusi City,with an average annual incidence rate of 117.51/105.The overall incidence trend from 2004 to 2019 decreased first(APC=-1.38%,P=0.091)and then increased(APC=19.64%,P=0.267),and the trend changes were not statistically significant;In 2020 to 2023,the overall trend was relatively stable,and the trend change was not statistically significant(APC=APPC=42.10%,P=0.349).From 2004 to 2019,the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a downward trend(AAPC=-2.49%,P=0.009),while the incidence of influenza(AAPC=23.12%,P=0.030)and varicella(APC=APPC=6.09%,P=0.003)showed an upward trend.The incidence of mumps showed a downward trend from 2020 to 2023(APC=APPC=-42.07%,P=0.044).The incidence of male was higher than that of female(χ^(2)=3889.98,P<0.001).The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was mainly concentrated in the population aged 20 to<70 years,accounting for 85.13%.The other five respiratory infectious diseases were mainly children and adolescents,accounting for 70.13%.There were two high peak incidence in winter and spring,in November-December and February-April.Conclusions The incidence of major respiratory infectious diseases in Jiamusi City is relatively stable,and the prevention and control of influenza is worthy of attention,and the prevention of seasonal influenza outbreaks is the focus.The compliance and high burden of tuberculosis treatment are the difficulties in the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases in Jiamusi City.For vaccine-preventable diseases,we should improve the coverage of the target population.
作者
冯丽影
王鹏
林洪艳君
陈欣
王艳旭
刘翠玉
陆子春
张金瑞
安灵
赵继民
FENG Liying;WANG Peng;LIN Hongyanjun;CHEN Xin;WANG Yanxu;LIU Cuiyu;LU Zichun;ZHANG Jinrui;AN Ling;ZHAO Jimin(Jiamusi City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiamusi 154000,Heilongjiang Province,China)
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
2026年第3期285-290,308,共7页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
基金
黑龙江省卫生健康委科研课题(项目编号:20231212050233)。
关键词
呼吸道传染病
Joinpoint回归模型
流行特征
流行趋势
respiratory infectious diseases
joinpoint regression model
epidemic characteristics
prevalence trend
