摘要
印太地区是中国对外贸易的重要着力点,印太经济框架(IPEF)的正式宣布将对中国以及世界经贸格局产生深远影响。构建了一个多国两部门两要素的开放经济模型,运用可计算一般均衡方法,模拟分析了IPEF对中国和世界主要经济体的影响。研究发现:IPEF对中国的主要冲击是小幅抑制出口,而进口和福利会小幅上升;随着IPEF进一步扩容纳入加拿大、墨西哥、秘鲁和智利,中国出口降幅会扩大,而进口和福利将微幅增加;随着印度加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP),IPEF和RCEP的联合效应会导致中国出口继续恶化,其出口降幅进一步扩大,但进口和福利增幅会增加;随着中国加入全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(CPTPP),IPEF和CPTPP的联合影响会改善中国的出口,使中国出口小幅上升,且进口和福利进一步增加。总体而言,IPEF对中国的经济影响有限。
The Indo-Pacific region is an important focus of China’s foreign trade,and the official announcement of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework(IPEF)will have a profound impact on China’s foreign economic and trade.A two sector,two factor open economy model consisting of 22 economies was constructed,and the impact of the IPEF agreement on China and major economies around the world were simulated and analyzed.It is found that firstly,the main impact of IPEF on China is a slight suppression of exports,while imports and welfare will increase slightly.Secondly,as IPEF further expands to include Canada,Mexico,Peru and Chile,the decline in China’s exports will widen,while imports and welfare will also slightly increase.Thirdly,with India’s accession to RCEP,the combined effect of IPEF and RCEP will lead to a continued deterioration of China’s exports,with a further expansion of its export decline and an increase in imports and welfare growth.Fourthly,with China’s accession to the CPTPP,the joint impact of IPEF and CPTPP will improve China’s exports,resulting in a slight increase in China’s exports and further increases in imports and welfare.Overall,the IPEF agreement has limited economic impact on China.
作者
周政宁
张艺歌
许迎新
刘丽娜
ZHOU Zhengning;ZHANG Yige;XU Yingxin;LIU Lina(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an International Studies University,Xi’an 710028,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2026年第6期249-257,共9页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
西安市科技局软科学研究一般项目(2026JH-YBRK-0119)。
