摘要
工程爆破作为矿产开采与基础设施建设的关键技术,其作业过程伴随着极高的安全风险。为科学、系统地评估工程爆破作业的安全风险,并提出针对性的防范对策,构建有效处理评价过程中不确定性与模糊性的风险评估模型。通过对2014—2024年间国内90起典型工程爆破事故案例进行统计分析,构建了包含“人、机(物)、环境、管理”四个维度的工程爆破事故致因指标体系。统计结果表明:“人的不安全行为”是事故最主要的原因,而“管理缺陷”(特别是安全教育培训不到位、安全制度不落实及现场管理混乱)则是事故的深层原因。其次,针对爆破风险评价中诸多因素难以精确量化的问题,引入了模糊数学理论,并结合层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,构建了基于AHP-多级模糊综合评估的工程爆泡安全风险评价模型。通过案例分析,验证了该模型能够对爆破作业的整体安全状况及各致因维度的风险等级进行有效判别,识别出关键风险因素。最后,基于模型评价结果和详实的事故数据分析,从技术、管理、人员和应急四个层面,系统地提出了工程爆破事故的综合防范对策。研究结果表明:该模型为工程爆破的动态风险管控和事前预防提供了科学方法,提出了强化安全培训、完善设备维护、优化作业环境管控及落实安全管理责任等防范对策,为工程爆破事故的风险防控提供科学依据和实践参考。
Engineering blasting serves as a critical technology in mineral extraction and infrastructure development,yet carries inherent operational safety risks.To establish a scientific and systematic safety risk assessment framework with targeted preventive measures,this study develops a risk evaluation model that addresses uncertainty and ambiguity in the assessment process.Based on an analysis of 90 engineering blasting accidents in China(2014—2024),a causal index system spanning four dimensions was constructed:human,machine(object),environment,and management.Statistical analysis indicates human unsafe behavior′(particularly illegal operation)as the primary direct cause.At the same time,management defects′(particularly inadequate safety training,unimplemented safety protocols,and disorganized site management)constitute fundamental systemic causes.To address quantification challenges in risk evaluation,fuzzy mathematical theory and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were integrated to determine indicator weights,thereby establishing an AHP-based multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.Case validation confirms the model′s effectiveness in assessing overall blasting safety status and identifying risk levels across causal dimensions,enabling key risk factor identification.Based on model outputs and a detailed accident analysis,comprehensive preventive countermeasures against engineering blasting accidents were systematically proposed across four domains:technology,management,personnel,and emergency response.The findings demonstrate the model′s scientific utility for dynamic risk control,suggesting countermeasures such as enhanced safety training,improved equipment maintenance,optimized environmental controls,and strengthened safety accountability systems.This study provides both a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for mitigating engineering blasting risks.
作者
王爱华
WANG Ai-hua(China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Fujian Xinhua Du Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Xiamen 361000,China)
出处
《爆破》
北大核心
2026年第1期235-245,共11页
Blasting
关键词
工程爆破事故
多级模糊综合评估
风险分析
防范对策
engineering blasting accident
multilevel fuzzy comprehensive assessment
risk analysis
preventive measures
