摘要
基于1996~2023年时间序列数据,文章采用MSVAR模型分析全球金融周期对中国货币政策有效性的影响,探讨中国金融周期与全球金融周期分化下中国货币政策的调控效果。进一步地,运用中国沪深A股上市企业面板数据分析全球金融周期影响中国货币政策有效性的多重传导渠道。研究发现,在全球金融周期衰退期,中国数量型货币政策的有效性减弱,而价格型货币政策的调控效果较强;内外部金融周期分化加剧时,中国数量型与价格型货币政策的有效性均受到限制。渠道分析表明,利率与信贷渠道是全球金融周期影响中国货币政策有效性的主要路径;资产价格渠道的作用明显提升,全球金融周期亦能经由该渠道作用于中国货币政策有效性;由于中国外汇储备充足且实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,汇率渠道的传导作用相对有限。
Based on time series data from 1996 to 2023,this paper employs the MSVAR model to analyze the impact of the global financial cycle on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy,and explores the regulatory effect of China's monetary policy under the divergence between China's financial cycle and the global financial cycle.Furthermore,by using panel data of A share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China,the paper investigates the multiple transmission channels through which the global financial cycle influences the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.The research shows that during the downturn phase of the global financial cycle,the effectiveness of China's quantitative monetary policy diminishes,while China's price-based monetary policy exerts a more significant regulatory effect;when the divergence between internal and external financial cycles intensifies,the effectiveness of China's quantitative and price-based monetary policies is constrained.The channel analysis indicates that interest rate channel and credit channel are the primary pathways through which the global financial cycle affects the effectiveness of China's monetary policy;the function of asset price channel is significantly enhanced,and the global financial cycle can also influence the effectiveness of China's monetary policy through this channel;due to China's ample foreign exchange reserves and its adoption of a managed floating exchange rate regime,the transmission effect of exchange rate channel is relatively limited.
作者
刘超
张婷婷
LIU Chao;ZHANG Tingting
出处
《国际经贸探索》
北大核心
2026年第2期90-107,共18页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72372003、62073007、61773029)。
关键词
全球金融周期
中国货币政策
金融周期分化
数量型货币政策
价格型货币政策
the global financial cycle
China's monetary policy
financial cycle divergence
quantitative monetary policy
price-based monetary policy
