摘要
培育和发展农业新质生产力是推动城乡融合发展的应有之义,也是助推经济高质量发展的必然要求。以2012—2023年中国31个省份的平衡面板数据为研究样本,通过构建农业新质生产力和城乡融合发展指标体系,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型、调节效应模型和工具变量法,实证检验农业新质生产力对城乡融合发展的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,农业新质生产力能够有效推动城乡融合发展,且这种推动作用在中部地区、城镇化水平较低区域、人力资本水平较高区域及粮食主产区更为明显,该结论在经过内生性问题处理和一系列的稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验结果表明,农业新质生产力主要通过提高区域创新水平、降低资源错配程度和打破市场分割格局三个渠道作用于城乡融合发展。此外,经济政策不确定性发挥着调节作用,能够减弱农业新质生产力对城乡融合发展的赋能作用。研究结论对因地制宜发展农业新质生产力、以农业新质生产力推动城乡融合发展、实现农业农村现代化提供了有益思考。
Cultivating and developing new agricultural productivity is not only the due meaning of promoting the integration and development of urban and rural areas,but also the inevitable requirement of promoting high-quality economic development,which has become one of the common concerns of academia and policy circles.Taking the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012-2023 as the research sample,this paper empirically tests the impact of new agricultural productivity on the development of urban and rural integration and its mechanism by constructing the index system of new agricultural productivity and urban and rural integration,using fixed effect model,intermediary effect model,regulatory effect model and instrumental variable method.The study found that new agricultural productivity can effectively promote the integration of urban and rural development,and this promotion effect is more obvious in the central region,the low level of urbanization,the high level of human capital and the main grain producing areas.The conclusion is still valid after endogenous problem treatment and a series of robustness tests;The results of mechanism test show that the new agricultural productivity mainly acts on the integration of urban and rural development through three channels:improving the level of regional innovation,reducing the degree of resource mismatch and breaking the market segmentation pattern;In addition,economic policy uncertainty plays a regulatory role in the promotion of urban and rural integration and development by new agricultural productivity,which can weaken the enabling effect of new agricultural productivity on urban and rural integration and development.The conclusions of this paper provide useful thoughts on developing new agricultural productivity according to local conditions,promoting the integration of urban and rural development with new agricultural productivity,realizing agricultural and rural modernization and paying attention to the uncertainty of economic policy.
出处
《统计理论与实践》
2026年第2期49-61,共13页
STATISTICAL THEORY AND PRACTICE
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“扩大内需战略下释放数字消费潜力的动力机制与实现路径研究”(25CJY144)
河南省哲学社会科学规划重点项目“河南加快建设制造强省的战略路径研究”(2025ZDI04)
河南省科协科技决策咨询研究课题“河南加快推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合的路径与对策研究”(SKXJCZX-2026-17C)。
关键词
农业新质生产力
城乡融合发展
区域创新
资源错配
市场分割
New Agricultural Productivity
Urban Rural Integration
Regional Innovation
Resource Mismatch
Market Segmentation
