摘要
目的探讨某三甲医院门诊基本药物使用动态趋势及处方合理性,为优化目录管理和提升合理用药水平提供数据支持。方法基于医院信息系统调取2022年1月至2024年12月门诊药房数据,并采用简单随机抽样纳入10800张处方。通过R语言进行数据清洗、可视化、ARIMA模型构建,并结合处方点评分析用药合理性。结果近三年基本药物绩效考核指标稳定,门诊基本药物处方合格率常年维持在98%以上,不合理类型以用药不适宜(71.82%)为主。ARIMA(0,1,0)模型预测分析显示基本药物处方占比长期呈缓慢上升趋势(MAE=0.82%,RMSE=1.02%),预测精度较高(r=0.72,P<0.001)。结论该院基本药物制度执行成效显著,但需针对性解决用药不适宜问题,并基于动态监测优化库存与审方规则,持续提升合理用药水平。
OBJECTIVE To investigate the dynamic trends of essential drug utilization and prescription rationality in the outpatient department of a tertiary hospital,aiming to provide data support for optimizing catalog management and enhancing rational medication practices.METHODS Based on the Hospital Information System,outpatient pharmacy data from January 2022 to December 2024 were retrieved,and 10,800 prescriptions were included by simple random sampling.The data cleaning,visualization,and ARIMA model construction were performed using R language,combined with prescription review to analyze medication rationality.RESULTS In the past three years,the performance evaluation indicators of essential drugs were stable,and the qualified rate of outpatient prescription of essential drugs remained above 98%all year round,and the unreasonable type was mainly inappropriate medication(71.82%).The prediction analysis of the ARIMA(0,1,0)model showed that the proportion of essential drug prescriptions showed a slow upward trend for a long time(MAE=0.82%,RMSE=1.02%),and the prediction accuracy was high(r=0.72,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The implementation of the essential drug system in a hospital has achieved remarkable results,but it is necessary to solve the problem of inappropriate drug use,optimize the inventory and prescription review rules through dynamic monitoring,and continue to improve the level of rational drug use.
作者
李文洁
杨安银
李素素
周明
魏龙
LI Wen-jie;YANG An-yin;LI Su-su;ZHOU Ming;WEI Long(Gaochun Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University,Nanjing 211300,China)
出处
《海峡药学》
2025年第12期150-154,共5页
Strait Pharmaceutical Journal
基金
江苏大学医教协同创新基金项目(JDYY2023026)。
关键词
基本药物
R语言
ARIMA模型
合理用药
动态监测
Essential medicines
R language
ARIMA model
Rational use of medicines
Dynamic monitoring
