摘要
针对现有预测方法无法全面、精准测算改扩建高速公路诱增交通量的问题,基于经济学供需理论,系统研究其产生机理,将诱增交通量划分为两部分:一是已有交通需求在新交通供给条件下的释放,二是新交通供给诱增区域经济增长所引发的交通量增长。结合高速公路改扩建前后出行费用的变化特征,提出“改进重力模型+诱增经济模型”的组合预测方法,并通过实际案例进行验证。结果表明:1)该组合预测方法相比传统单一方法,更契合诱增交通量产生机理;2)采集区域现状OD矩阵、人口、经济总量及出行费用等数据并完成参数标定后,可精准预测未来年诱增交通量;3)传统方法仅计算了第一部分诱增交通量易导致结果偏保守,纳入第二部分可完善诱增影响分析,使预测结果更符合实际情况。
Aiming at the problem that existing prediction methods fail to comprehensively and accurately measure the induced traffic volume of reconstructed and expanded expressways,this study systematically explores its generation mechanism based on the supply-demand economic theory.The induced traffic volume is divided into two components:first,the release of existing traffic demand under new traffic supply conditions;second,the growth of traffic volume driven by regional economic development induced by the new traffic supply.Combined with the characteristics of travel cost changes before and after expressway reconstruction and expansion,a combined prediction method of"improved gravity model and induced economic model"is proposed and validated through practical cases.The results indicate that:1)Compared with traditional single methods,the proposed combined prediction method is more consistent with the generation mechanism of induced traffic volume;2)Accurate prediction of future annual induced traffic volume can be achieved after collecting current regional data(including OD matrix,population,total economic output,and travel costs)and completing parameter calibration;3)Traditional methods only calculate the first component of induced traffic volume,which tends to result in conservative predictions.Incorporating the second component can improve the analysis of induced impacts and make the prediction results more consistent with actual conditions.
作者
谭明军
赵西龙
黄宜春
谢耀华
TAN Mingjun;ZHAO Xilong;HUANG Yichun;XIE Yaohua(China Merchants Chongqing Communications Technology Research&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 400067;National Engineering and Research Center for Mountainous Highways,Chongqing 400067;China Merchants Expressway Network&Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100022;Zhejiang Taizhou Shenhai Expressway Co.,Ltd.,Taizhou 317000;Zhejiang Jiaotou Transportation Construction Management Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000)
出处
《公路交通技术》
2026年第1期212-223,共12页
Technology of Highway and Transport
基金
浙江省交通运输厅重大交通建设工程科研项目(2023-GCKY-09)。
关键词
改扩建高速公路
交通量预测
诱增交通量
重力模型
经济发展潜力模型
趋势交通量
reconstructed and expanded expressways
traffic volume prediction
induced traffic volume
gravity model
economic development potential model
trend traffic volume
