摘要
针对经济社会发展波动或外部因素干扰下趋势交通量增长难以预测的问题,提出基于增长加速度相关性的趋势交通增长率预测方法,系统研究经济与交通类指标增长率及增长加速度的变化关系与趋势。结果表明:1)经济社会发展波动加剧会破坏经济与交通弹性系数的平稳变化趋势;2)传统弹性系数法对经济与交通增长的非线性关系考量不足,对未来弹性系数预测存在局限性;3)经济与交通类指标的增长加速度存在显著正相关性及明确函数关系。所提基于增长加速度的短期趋势交通量预测方法,可有效解决经济社会大幅波动下的趋势交通量预测难题。
To address the difficulty in predicting the growth of trend traffic volume under significant fluctuations in economic and social development or external interference,a prediction method for the trend traffic growth rate based on the correlation of growth acceleration is proposed.This method systematically explores the changing relationships and trends between the growth rates and growth accelerations of economic and traffic indicators.The results indicate that:1)Increased fluctuations in economic and social development will disrupt the stable changing trend of the elasticity coefficient between the economy and transportation;2)The traditional elasticity coefficient method insufficiently considers the nonlinear relationship between economic and traffic growth,leading to limitations in predicting future elasticity coefficients;3)There is a significant positive correlation and a clear functional relationship between the growth accelerations of economic and traffic indicators.A short-term trend traffic volume prediction method based on growth acceleration is proposed,which can effectively solve the prediction problem under significant economic and social fluctuations.
作者
程俊龙
CHENG Junlong(Zhejiang Expressway Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310016)
出处
《公路交通技术》
2026年第1期205-211,共7页
Technology of Highway and Transport
关键词
交通工程
趋势交通量
弹性系数法
交通增速
增长加速度
traffic engineering
trend traffic volume
elasticity coefficient method
traffic growth rate
growth acceleration
