摘要
旨在对印度情报体系在战略定位、域外拓展以及多层布局等方面的演进路径展开系统分析,识别其扩张背后的驱动因素以及多维能力瓶颈,同时评估其对南亚及印太地缘格局的潜在影响,为区域安全研究提供参考。将历史分析同地缘政治理论相结合,采用文献研究、政策解读以及案例比较法,梳理印度情报体系从传统防御转变为主动扩张的战略转型过程,考察其制度设计、资源分配以及跨国合作机制,剖析其在法律基础、财政投入以及协同效能方面存在的限制因素,借助区域安全动态评估其地缘外溢效应。研究认为,印度情报战略的持续扩张始终掣肘于预期目标与实际能力之间的适应性矛盾。因此,其扩张意愿将难以实现。印度情报扩张的困境为新兴国家推进情报能力建设提供了镜鉴。情报能力建设需补齐内部短板,注重海外行动规范,预防外交风险。
The aim is to systematically analyze the evolution path of India's intelligence system in terms of strategic positioning,expansion outside the region and multi-level layout,identify the driving factors and multi-dimensional capability bottlenecks behind its expansion,and assess the potential impact on the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific,providing a reference for regional security research.Combining historical analysis with the theoretical framework of geopolitics,and applying methods such as literature research,policy interpretation and case comparison,this paper sorts out the strategic transformation process of India's intelligence system from traditional defense to active expansion.By examining its institutional design,resource allocation and cross-border cooperation mechanism,the limiting factors in terms of legal basis,financial input and collaborative effectiveness are analyzed,and its geographical impact is evaluated with the help of regional security dynamics.The research suggests that the continuous expansion of India's intelligence strategy has always been constrained by the adaptive contradiction between expected goals and actual capabilities.As a result,its expansion aspirations are difficult to achieve.Currently,with the world undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,the predicament of India's intelligence expansion provides a mirror for emerging countries to advance their intelligence capacity building.The construction of intelligence capabilities needs to address internal shortcomings,pay attention to the norms of overseas operations,and prevent diplomatic risks.
作者
向敏
徐圣凯
Xiang Min;Xu Shengkai(National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039;Army Command College,Nanjing 210045)
出处
《情报杂志》
北大核心
2026年第3期39-46,55,共9页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中印关系中的重大国际法问题研究”(编号:18ZDA154)研究成果。
关键词
印度
情报战略
扩张性转向
地缘政治
国家安全
India
intelligence strategy
expansionary shift
geopolitics
national security
