摘要
基于“致灾危险性-承灾体暴露度-承灾体脆弱性”三要素框架,探析森林火灾风险评估体系构建路径。通过分层级设计,明确致灾危险性、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性的构成逻辑;采用区间赋值法标准化指标,结合几何平均模型测算风险指数,划分5个风险等级,形成“指标标准化-指数测算-等级划分”流程。研究表明:该体系可以较全面反映风险特征,为区域森林火灾精准识别与分级防控提供技术支撑,也为同类林区评估体系优化提供参考。
Based on the three-element framework of"hazard of disaster-causing,exposure of hazardbearing bodies,vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies",in this paper,the construction path of a forest fire risk assessment system was explored.Through hierarchical design,the composition logic of hazard of disastercausing,exposure of hazard-bearing bodies,and vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies was clarified.The interval assignment method was used to standardize indicators,and the geometric average model was combined to calculate the risk index and divide 5 risk levels,forming a process of"indicator standardization-index calculation-level division".The results showed that the system can fully characterize risk characteristics,provide technical support for accurate identification and hierarchical prevention of regional forest fires,and also offer references for the optimization of assessment systems in similar forest areas.
作者
曹祖荣
王亮
谢文
周洪岩
CAO Zu-rong;WANG Liang;XIE Wen;ZHOU Hong-yan(Forestry Bureau of Zigui City,Yichang 443600,Hubei,P.R.China;Industry Development and Planning Institute,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100010,P.R.China)
出处
《森林防火》
2026年第1期32-35,共4页
JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE SCIENCE
基金
湖北省自然科学基金(2024AFB545)。
关键词
森林火灾
风险评估体系
致灾危险性
承灾体暴露度
承灾体脆弱性
Forest fire
Risk assessment system
Hazard of disaster-causing
Exposure of hazard-bearing bodies
Vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies
