摘要
对福建省重点控排企业碳排放与污染源数据进行关联分析,探讨电力和水泥行业在污染物排放动态、响应机制及耦合关系上的差异,为区域环境质量改善和可持续发展提供科学依据。基于2016-2023年数据,利用机器学习模型、STL分解、趋势显著性分析、定量分析及耦合与解耦合分析等方法,揭示重点控排企业的污染物排放特征。结果表明企业排放的季节性稳定,但趋势存在差异:SO_(2)和PM排放持续下降,验证了减排措施成效;CO_(2)和NO x排放存在波动回升,尤其在2023年回升明显,提示减排策略需优化。绝对差异对比分析结果表明,电力行业在SO_(2)和PM减排上显著(分别下降31.4%和42.7%),NO x波动下降(降幅回升到11.5%),CO_(2)控制不足(上升47.8%);水泥行业PM下降明显(49.2%),但SO_(2)排放反弹(42.6%),CO_(2)上升55.2%。耦合关系研究表明,发电厂污染物排放强耦合(相关系数r>0.7),水泥厂解耦合不稳定,耦合点频现。趋势预测显示,水泥行业SO_(2)排放上升风险高,电力行业减排比例小,能源转型任务紧迫。研究结果凸显了行业间减排技术和政策执行的差异,强调了针对电力行业加强脱硝和碳捕集技术的应用,同时对水泥行业实施更严格的监管,以实现协同减排目标。本研究可为区域重点控排企业制定差异化环境政策和优化减排策略提供数据支持。
Through analyzing the correlation between carbon emissions and pollution source data of key emission-control enterprises in Fujian Province,differences in emission dynamics,response mechanisms,and coupling relationships between the power and cement industries were explored,to provide a scientific basis for regional environment improvement and sustainable development.Machine learning models,STL decomposition,trend significance analysis,quantitative analysis,and coupling-decoupling analysis were employed to reveal the emission characteristics of key emission-control enterprises based on data from 2016 to 2023.The results indicate that while seasonal emissions remain stable,trends vary:SO_(2)and PM emissions decline steadily,validating the effectiveness of control measures,while CO_(2)and NO x emissions exhibit fluctuating increases,particularly notable in 2023,indicating a need for optimized reduction strategies.Absolute difference comparative analysis shows the power industry has achieved significant reductions in SO_(2)and PM reduction(down 31.4%and 42.7%,respectively),with NO x showing a fluctuating decline(reduction rate rising to 11.5%)but insufficient CO_(2)control(up 47.8%).In the cement industry,PM emission decreased significantly(49.2%),yet SO_(2)emissions rebounded(42.6%)and CO_(2)rose(55.2%).Coupling analysis reveals strong coupling in power plants(correlation coefficient r>0.7),while cement plants exhibit unstable decoupling with frequent coupling points.Trend forecasts suggest a high risk of SO_(2)emission increases in cement industry and limited reductions in power industry,underscoring the urgency of energy transition.These findings highlight the disparities in emission reduction technologies and policy implementation among industries,emphasizing the necessity to enhance denitrification and carbon capture technologie s in the power industry while implementing stricter supervision on the cement industry to achieve synergistic emission reduction goals.This study provides data support for the formulation of differentiated environmental policies and optimization emission reduction strategies for regional key emission-control enterprises.
作者
谢晓刚
XIE Xiaogang(Fujian Ecology Environment Information Center,Fuzhou 350001,China)
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2026年第1期139-150,共12页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
福建省自然科学基金项目(2020J05043)。
关键词
控排行业
碳排放
污染源数据
行业差异
耦合关系
趋势预测
福建省
emission-control industry
carbon emissions
pollution source data
industry differences
coupling relationship
trend forecasting
Fujian province
