摘要
[目的]研究当前福建省卫生人力资源供给现状,预测卫生人员变化趋势,为推动福建省卫生人力资源供需平衡提供参考。[方法]采用组合预测方法,分别运用灰色GM(1,1)、二次回归、Holt-Winters线性和ARIMA模型进行单项预测,再以预测误差平方和倒数法确定各模型权重构建组合模型,经误差对比验证其有效性。[结果]组合模型预测精度最优,稳定性最佳,卫技人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士3类卫生人力的RMSE分别为0.25、0.45、0.09,MAE分别为0.19、0.34、0.07。2024—2028年3类卫生人力将持续增长,预计卫生技术人员数从33.98万人增至39.45万人、执业(助理)医师数从13.25万人增至15.62万人、注册护士数从16.87万人增至19.91万人,年均增长率分别为4.28%、5.80%、4.33%,均低于2009—2023年历史增长率。[结论]组合预测模型适用于区域卫生人力资源的中长期预测,福建省卫生人力需求仍处于增长期,需从优化结构、提升素质和完善政策等方面加强人才队伍建设。
Objective This paper studies the current status of human resources supply in healthcare in Fujian Province and predicts the trend of changes in health workers,so as to provide a reference for promoting the balance between supply and demand of human resources in healthcare in Fujian Province.Methods The combination of forecasts method was adopted.The gray GM(1,1)model,quadratic regression model,Holt-Winters linear model,and ARIMA model were used for individual predictions.The weights of each model were determined by the Reciprocal of Error Sum of Squares to construct a combined model,and its effectiveness was verified through error comparison.Results The combined model achieved the optimal prediction accuracy and the best stability.The RMSE values of the three types of health personnel that were health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses were 0.25,0.45 and 0.09,respectively.The MAE values were 0.19,0.34 and 0.07,respectively.From 2024 to 2028,the three types of health personnel would continue to grow.It was projected that the number of healthcare professionals would increase from 339800 to 394500;the number of practicing(assistant)physicians would rise from 132500 to 156200;and the number of registered nurses would increase from 168700 to 199100.The average annual growth rates were 4.28%,5.80%and 4.33%,respectively,all of which were lower than the historical growth rates from 2009 to 2023.Conclusions The combination of forecasts model is applicable for medium-to-long-term predictions of regional human resources in healthcare.The demand for human resources in healthcare in Fujian Province is still on the rise.Efforts should be made to strengthen the talent team by optimizing the structure,improving the quality and enhancing policies.
作者
赵晓东
林修全
吴生根
ZHAO Xiaodong;LIN Xiuquan;WU Shenggen(Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou Fujian 350012,China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2026年第2期69-73,88,共6页
Soft Science of Health
基金
福建省卫生健康中青年领军人才研修培养项目资助(闽卫人函〔2023〕2839号)。
关键词
卫生人力资源
组合模型
需求预测
福建省
human resources in healthcare
the combination of forecasts model
demand forecasting
Fujian Province
